Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 291538
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1038 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

15z/10am surface analysis shows stationary frontal boundary
extending from West Virginia southwestward to an area of low
pressure over the Texas panhandle. Meanwhile, high pressure over
southern Canada dominates the weather across the Great
Lakes/Midwest. This high will gradually shift off to the east,
allowing the front to slowly lift northward tonight. In the
meantime, cool/dry weather will be on tap across central Illinois
for the remainder of the day. Quite a bit of low cloudiness
continues to blanket the northern two-thirds of the KILX CWA:
however, the HRRR suggests this cloud cover will scatter as the
day progresses. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day.
Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 60s, but will top out
around 70 degrees south of I-70 where sunshine will be more
prevalent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Quiet conditions are expected across central and southeast Illinois
today. We will be between weather systems, although there will be a
fair amount of cloud cover across the area. Expect light winds and
slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Daytime highs will top out
in the 60s at most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Deep trof over the western half of the CONUS will eject out another
low for the Midwest this weekend. Same kind of set up with a slow
moving system keeping much of the Midwest wet, and putting in excess
of an inch of rain anticipated for Central Illinois. A slower trend
in the models as the precip spreads from southwest to northeast
overnight tonight...mainly after midnight.  The region sets up for
mainly a warm sector event from the developing low to the west.
Southerly flow of warm moisture feeding into the ongoing
precipitation for Saturday and Saturday night.  Precip slowly
decreasing through Sunday night as the upper low finally progresses
through the region. Sunday night will have some clearing of the
precip with drier air wrapping around the system.

Models have had several problems...the 00z runs for the last three
nights have been different. Models are still not in agreement with
handling the pattern shift with the shearing out of the energy
remaining in the trof in the southwest. It seems an attempt at more
northwesterly flow ...but so far, the lack of gradient aloft is weak
at best, with no consistency for the energy trying to dig out a trof
over the Great Lakes.  Remaining forecast is dry for now...with some
slight chances creeping in mid/end week.  Temperatures are moderate
and holding near seasonal.  Confidence in forecast for next week
remains weak and highly conditional.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Predominantly VFR conditions expected across the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A few hours of MVFR/IFR
conditions possible early this morning, but these should improve
by midday. Then, quiet weather is likely until later tonight,
when shower chances move in with the approach of a slow moving
storm system.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK



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