Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 031948
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF (576-578 DM AT 500 MB) OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND
CENTRAL IL WAS INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL IL EAST
OF I-55. HEAVIER RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN SOUTHEAST IL AND MORE NUMEROUS IN
KY AND FAR SOUTHERN IL CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A WEAK
1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CENTRAL KY.  ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING AND
MOSTLY BE DRY AFTER DARK (02Z/9 PM).

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/IA/LOWER MI TO
DRIFT SE INTO CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY HELPING DECREASING
CLOUDS WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS SOME FOG APPEARING IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SE IL OVERNIGHT WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN MID TO UPPER 60S
AND AGREE FOG WILL FORM ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGE FROM 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS
IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR OUR AREA...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST. HAVE REMOVED ANY
LINGERING POP`S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY. WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND RAISED
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 86-88 DEGREE RANGE
AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 22C.

MAIN FOCUS REMAINS WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK
A BIT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2.1 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONT WHICH SHOULD HOPEFULLY REDUCE THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL IN ANY GIVEN AREA. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DIVERGENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE
DISPARITIES FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO RETURN
NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS IS MOST
GUNG-HO ON THIS SOLUTION AND HAS THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
WAVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR AREA MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS 3-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SE OF
THE IL RIVER/PIA. HAVE VCSH WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES AT DEC AND CMI
INTO MID AFTERNOON OTHERWISE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 CLOSER TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN KY INTO SE MO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
1016 MB FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN IA AND CENTRAL LOWER MI TO BUILD
SLOWLY SE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 5-9 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE SAT MORNING. HAVE MVFR VSBYS ARRIVING WITH SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 08Z WITH PATCHY IFR VSBYS WITH FOG MAINLY IN
EASTERN IL. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIFT TO LIGHT
HAZE BY 15Z SAT WITH FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CIRRUS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07



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