Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
FXUS63 KILX 150457
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Current forecast looks ok, but will be making a few minor
adjustments to temps. With current dewpoints think that lows
overnight may not get quite as low as forecast. So have adjusted
them up a tad. Update will be out shortly.
ISSUED 1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies
will be clear at all sites overnight and during the morning hours.
Then broken mid clouds around 10kft will advect over the north,
affecting only PIA and BMI during the afternoon. The other three
TAF sites could see scattered mid clouds at the same time. Then
clouds will scatter out in the north and become clear elsewhere
around 00z. Then expect lower clouds around 5kft to advect into
the PIA and BMI sites during the evening in advance of the next
system bringing pcpn to the area. SPI/DEC/CMI will just see cirrus
increasing at the same time. Winds will be light and variable
overnight as high pressure ridge moves over the area. Then winds
will become east-southeast tomorrow with winds around 10kts. As
the next system gets closer, winds will become more east to
northeast late in the evening but increase in speed with gusts to
20-25kts before midnight.
ISSUED 256 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
Forecast problems is the light snow event on Sunday, and a front
producing light rain Tuesday night to Wed.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
Upper air and moisture channel data this morning shows upper wave
over IA driving surface front through IA today. Clouds are the
only result of this feature, but with gusty winds both ahead of
and behind the front. Next system handled similar by the models,
is an upper level trof moving from NE/KS and through MO, which
deepens surface low that moves through MO to TN/southern KY. As a
result, pcpn develops north of low over the southern 1/2 of IL
late Sat night, and through day Sun. Pcpn will start as rain
overnight in central and southeast CWA, changing over to all snow
in the central on Sun and southeast by afternoon. Best overrunning
north of the low is over the southeast sections, in the afternoon
Sunday when the cold air reaches the area and so 2-3 inches psbl
in that region. Started with WWD amounts, modifying the QPF
amounts and having rain or mixture in southeast initially until
cold air reaches area, as the forecast soundings indicated.
LONG TERM...Monday to Friday
Long range is mainly quiet, but the period of Tuesday night to
Wednesday. During that period, another system will push a front
through early Wednesday, with a chance of light rain for the area.
Temperatures through the period remain below normal.