Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261545
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Current forecast looks on track but need to make some adjustments
to pop/wx coverage area as radar shows light showers/rain moving
into the area from the west-northwest. Wind/temp/etc looks fine
the rest of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Northwesterly flow aloft continues with high pressure building
into the center of the country. Mild airmass in place again today
with a mostly broken cu field expected in the afternoon with a
cyclonic turn to the flow aloft and mid level moisture still in
place from yesterday. Models show a bit of scattered coverage of
showers with a quick shortwave moving through the region, visible
this morning on wv sat imagery, further assisting an afternoon
diurnal component. HRRR making the showers look rather isolated.
CAPEs are generally limited to under 1000 J/kg, but enough lift
through the column on a larger scale to warrant some iso/sct
thunder this afternoon. Partly sunny and mild temperatures again
today. West/northwesterly winds, less gusty today. Clouds diminish
later this evening and temps drop again into the 50s. With a lack
of pressure gradient the winds will be light once again and will
have to watch this afternoons xover temp for the potential of some
very patchy fog development.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesdays highs climb back into the upper 70s as a start of a
warming period as the wave aloft passes through the Great Lakes.
The trough aloft over the eastern half of the country deepens
briefly before moving off to the east. A more zonal regime settles
into the region and southwesterly flow in the midlevels sets up a
strong warm air advection period...opening up the region to the
deep warm air over the desert SW. 850 mb temps warm from 7-8C on
Tuesday...to 17-20C by Wednesday evening. Temperatures at the
surface climb a good 7 to 9F on Wednesday and stay warm through
the end of the week. Temperatures would likely look a little
warmer on Thur/Friday if not for the potential for
convection/showers/thunderstorms limiting warming potential in the
grids. Have made adjustments to Thursday slightly...but unwilling
to go too far with the changes just yet. The zonal flow aloft has
several waves past the end of the week, resulting in period
chances for precip through the latter half of the week and into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR throughout... Another day of sct/bkn cu in the afternoon with
a quick shortwave enhancing threat for precip/thunder. For
now...VCSH for most...VCTS in DEC and CMI where the storms
potentially will be progressing with peak heating. All terminals
may end up seeing TS...but confidence in coverage is too low to
put even in as tempo.  WNW winds a little lighter than previous
days...at the surface and aloft.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS



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