Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 011952
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NEAR QUINCY TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  19Z LAPS DATA SHOWS
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  GIVEN
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY...THINK AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SCATTERED.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
KILX CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF I-74.  LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER KANSAS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI TONIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG/SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE
FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER NORTH...ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.  AS
THE FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD...COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG/NORTH OF I-74...BUT REMAIN IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND A SIZABLE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...AS
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCE POP`S IN THE
15-30% RANGE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN.

LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM OUR NORTHWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IN CANADA...WITH THE
PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MOST FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CLEARS THINGS OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS IT STARTS TO
PARALLEL THE UPPER FLOW. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POP`S FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MVFR CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP
IN THIS AREA AS WELL...AND EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. WILL COVER WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KPIA AND KBMI WHERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PREVALENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL ALSO
SPREAD FURTHER NORTHWARD TO THE I-74 TERMINALS. MODELS ARE NOT IN
PARTICULARLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXACT EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT
CONSENSUS GENERALLY KEEPS MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED PREDOMINANT
SHRA WITH VCTS AT KSPI AND KDEC AFTER 22/23Z. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THESE SITES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
THE PRECIP BEGINS TO PULL FURTHER SOUTHEAST. EVEN AFTER THE RAIN
ENDS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z...EXCEPT AT KPIA
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
IMPROVING CEILINGS BY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES


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