Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 310010
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
710 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL FROM
AROUND TAYLORVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFT AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS CAUSED
NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME BRIEF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS A RESULT OF
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UP
TO AROUND 30 KTS.  LOW WILL LIFT NE INTO INDIANA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE STATE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
FROM AROUND TAYLORVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CIRCULATION EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA...SHRINKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS AREA AS
NUMEROUS REPORTS AROUND 1 INCH OR GREATER HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF I-57 AT THIS POINT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AROUND 45-50 EXPECTED
I-72 NORTH...AND 50S TO THE SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY WRAP AROUND TO
LOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE MORNING
SUNDAY AS SHOWERS WRAP AROUND A SURFACE LOW DEPARTING TO THE EAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE STATE.
AFTERWARD...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND A TRAILING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S SPRINGFIELD-PARIS
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING...AND HIGHS MID 60S SUNDAY.

THE MAIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOW DOWN OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE A LARGE SCALE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INITIATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 ON MONDAY REACHING THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
FRIDAY-SATURDAY BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LATE
WEEK/SATURDAY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. AS IT
TRACKS INTO INDIANA TONIGHT...OUR AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH IFR AND MVFR CIGS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO
CLEARING UNTIL LATER TOMORROW AND EVEN BY THEN...IT FOCUSES ANY
CIG IMPROVEMENTS AROUND THE PEORIA AREA AFTR 19Z WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF AREA EXPERIENCING MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AT 12 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES THRU
MIDNIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 12 TO 17 KTS LATE TONIGHT
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...BARNES/SMITH



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