Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 062007
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING DURING PAST HOUR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EAST OF THE IL RIVER FROM MCS OVER IA FROM
NORTH OF LINCOLN TO EAST OF OTTAWA. HAVE STRONGER CONVECTION WITH
HEAVY RAINS AROUND ST LOUIS METRO WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA...WI...NORTHERN IL AND NW MO. THIS
CONVECTION IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CAPES 2-4 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL (3-4K J/KG WEST OF I-57 AT 19Z). BULK SHEAR IS WEAK 20
KTS OR LESS OVER CWA SO ORGANIZED SEVERE WX . COLD FRONT WAS
EXTENDING FROM 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NW WI WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SW THRU CENTRAL IA/KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM I-57 WEST. COLD FRONT TO
PUSH SE TOWARD I-55 BY 12Z/TUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NW TO SE DURING THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL IL
AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS NW OF I-55 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HAIL. HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM MID 60S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE LOWER 70S SE OF
I-55 WHICH STAYS IN WARM SECTOR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE SITTING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT SHOULD
EFFECT MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...OR THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. THEN MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECASTING ANOTHER WAVE
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THEN HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED AND WED NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD BUT THINK ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND/OR TOMORROW IS
WARRANTED...AFTER SEEING WHAT THE CONVECTION DOES WITH THE
FRONT/OUFLOW BOUNDARY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY THE BOUNDARY REMAINS AROUND OR NEAR THE AREA THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OR LIKELY PCPN IN THE
AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING FRI NIGHT AS
WELL...WHICH WILL PUSH THE CHANCE OF PCPN NORTH OF THE I-74 FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MORE PCPN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE.
BUT THEN THEY WILL WARM AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 2-4K FT WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM I-55 WEST. BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE OVER IL RIVER VALLEY BY PIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND TO I-55 BY MID EVENING AND TO DEC
AND CMI BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINS COULD BRING IFR VSBYS.
1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NW WI WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW IA INTO CENTRAL KS. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE
TOWARD I-55 BY 12Z/7 AM TUE AND TO CMI BETWEEN 14-15Z TUE. BREEZY
SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS 17-22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH
TO 7-10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL SWITCH NNE NEAR 10 KTS BEHIND
COLD FRONT TUE MORNING WHILE MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ALONG WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LINGERING LONGER INTO TUE MORNING ALONG I-72.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...07


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