Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 012056
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A couple more hours of a light wintry mix are possible south of
I-70 late this afternoon/early this evening as our current storm
system pulls away from the area. Otherwise, quiet weather is
expected for the rest of the night as a large area of high pressure
builds in from the northwest. The high will help provide some
clearing tonight as well as cooler conditions than seen last night.
A decent radiational cooling setup, along with fresh snow pack,
should allow temperatures to fall into the teens in most areas, with
some single digit readings possible across our far northern counties.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

The surface high will quickly depart the area by late Monday. This
will allow deep southwesterly flow to develop across the area Monday
night into Tuesday ahead of our next storm system. While the overall
expectations with this next system have not changed much, the models
have still exhibited some differences and run-to-run variation in
the details. While many earlier runs progged the approach of a
large/well phased upper-level trof, recent runs are not as phased.
This lack of phasing is having two impacts on the local forecast
problem. First, temperatures are now likely to stay a little cooler
on Tuesday, but should still climb above freezing by mid-late
morning. Second, the lingering split in the in the upper-level flow
will also limit the transport of deeper moisture into the area. The
upshot is that the risk of freezing rain may linger a bit longer
Tuesday morning, but overall rainfall amounts and/or potential ice
accumulation should be lower.

Expect sleet and freezing rain to develop across the area after
midnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, with the precipitation
changing to all rain by mid-morning Tuesday. Then, the cold front
associated with the storm system will swing through the area, from
northwest to southeast, Tuesday afternoon and evening. This frontal
passage will quickly bring the precipitation to an end, but there
may be a brief changeover to snow before ending. No significant snow
accumulation is anticipated.

While the frontal boundary should be well south of the Ohio River
Valley by late Tuesday night, some guidance still suggests waves
riding along the boundary may be able to push some light snow back
into the the southeast portion of the forecast area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. While this snowfall should be light in the event it
occurs, confidence in its probability of occurrence is low. While
the overall trend for Wednesday had been drier, occasional model
runs keep tossing some snowfall back our way. Hopefully better model
agreement/consistency will be seen with this threat soon.

Another area of high pressure, accompanied by a shot of very cold
air, will build across the region for Wednesday night into Thursday
night, supporting widespread single digit low temperatures, and high
temperatures struggling to reach 20 degrees. However, southerly
return flow will develop on Friday, which should help temperatures
recover to near normal levels for early March by the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Upper air disturbance and subsequent snowfall making its way east
this afternoon with some lingering affects over CMI and DEC into
IFR and LIFR tempo. Clearing up significantly by this afternoon,
but MVFR cigs continuing into the evening hours. Forecast generous
with clearing as drier airmass moves into place just before
midnight at the llvls...leaving bkn cirrus and northwesterly winds
for the overnight hours.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR
ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...HJS






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