Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 181118
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Atmospheric flow over the CONUS is being dominated by a deep upper
low over the Great Lakes this morning. Ample cold air being ushered
into the region dropping temps into the lower teens and plenty of
wind still across the region dropping wind chills to single digits.
An incredibly cold morning for this time of year, climatologically
speaking, and a warm up is not expected in the short term.  Todays
highs will only climb into the lower 20s for highs, well below
normal.  Cold air and continued broad area of cyclonic flow aloft
will keep some clouds in place as the morning wears on.  Though some
breaks in the cloud cover should be expected...even just to the NW
on sat imagery showing a cloud deck around 3000 ft.  Once
again...some instability showers possible within the clouds...so
sporadic flurries will be expected from mid day through the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Deep cyclonic flow will keep the flurry threat through tomorrow as
well, though the main area that will see the minor qpf will shift
north and east with the slow movement of the upper low.  850mb
showing a warmer airmass pushing into the region, and although the
temperatures are going to be about 10 degrees warmer for
Wed-Fri...will still be just above freezing and below normal.
Nights will be cold, into the teens until Friday night.  Warm
front/waa lifting north into the region, with more southerly
component to the winds bringing the temps up drastically. Third
synoptic run in a row that the temps have increased appreciably for
Saturday through Sunday.  Models still being somewhat perplexing
with the timing of the qpf/sfc low.  Last  run sped up, this run did
not...and the result is a pop spread over the weekend and into
Monday.  Forecast for the weekend is in the high chance/likely
category for precip, though the temperature profile is still
indicating rain.  With timing issues, am keeping the likely mention
to a minimum with the exception of the Saturday night/Sunday.  GFS
and ECMWF still showing some differences...and although the tracks
are becoming more similar, the GFS is also a little more diffuse at
the sfc with a double barrel look to the low center, elongating to
the NW. Expect some nuance changes with this  system, but
overall...next weekend looks wet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

Although clear skies prevail at the present time, satellite data
and surface observations across central Iowa indicate another band
of low VFR cigs was tracking towards our area. Based on the current
movement, it appears we should see the clouds in our area after
13z across the west and by 15z in the east. Cloud bases will range
from 2500-3500 feet this morning with bases up to around 3500 to
4000 feet this afternoon. We may even see a few flurries with this
cloud band later this morning into the afternoon hours but again
coverage to limited to include much more than a VCSH. Gusty westerly
winds expected again today with peak gusts to around 25 kts at times
later this morning thru the afternoon hours. Winds will start to
back into a southwest and then southerly direction tonight ahead
of another fast moving frontal system for Wednesday. Wind speeds
tonight will average around 10 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith




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