Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 232328
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A weak mid level trough and associated vort max will move through
the area late tonight and tomorrow morning. Some models are dry
with this trough and some produce very little qpf. However, in
this kind of environment in the winter, weak troughs with a mid
level vort max, and some lower level cloud cover can easily wring
out some scattered flurries. Since it`s already in the grids, will
be leaving in for late tonight and tomorrow morning, and will just
refine it`s location from northwest to southeast through morning.

Temps will be around normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Behind the trough, ridging will begin to build back into the area
and bring dry weather for Wed night through Friday. A weather
system will develop and move across the area Friday night through
Sat night. Models differ on what the surface features will look
like and still differ on timing of the precip. Either way, some
showers/rain will move across the area Friday night and Sat. As
cooler air advects into the area, the rain with become mixed with
snow and possibly change to all snow as the precip is ending,
which should be sometime Sat night. Beyond this system, dry
weather returns for the rest of the weekend and into the beginning
of the following week.

Temps through the period will be warming as the ridge builds back
into the area. Then things cool again back to normal behind the
Sat system on Sunday, then begins to moderate back up some by
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Fairly uniform MVFR cigs around 2000 ft AGL cover central IL and
surrounding areas this evening with upstream observations
depicting this cloud coverage continuing until near 18Z Wednesday.
An upper level wave may help produce a few snow flurries late
tonight into Wednesday morning and have included VCSH in TAFs
accordingly, although visibilities are likely to remain above 6 SM
through the forecast period. Some potential for IFR cigs looks to
accompany the upper wave according to upstream observations,
however have not included in TAFs at this time as suggests it will
remain MVFR. Improvement to VFR cigs looks likely starting 18-22Z
Wednesday as an upper level ridge begins to build into the region.
Winds generally WNW 5-12 kts through the period, with a gradual
decreasing trend.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...37


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