Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 071759
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Like yesterday, temperatures are running warmer with more sunshine
this morning and will update to bump highs up a few degrees. Most
areas should reach the upper 40s and lower 50s this afternoon.
Temps at 1030 am already in the low to mid 40s over central IL and
upper 40s in southeast IL. The cirrus clouds are fairly thin yet
over central and especially southeast IL with partly to mostly
sunny skies this morning. Breezy sw winds of 10-20 mph and gusts
of 20-30 mph to bring in the mild Pacific air one more day today.
Forecast models increase clouds during the afternoon and have
trended drier this afternoon and evening over southeast IL.
Will hold onto isolated light rain showers over southeast IL late
this afternoon and evening with just 20% chance pop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Expect a somewhat disorganized cloud cover pattern today. A band of
high cloud cover over the area this morning should continue eastward
and be of little consequence as the upper shortwave responsible
ejects off to the northeast. A cold frontal boundary from the
central Plains through Minnesota this morning will progress eastward
today crossing southeastern IL during the afternoon. With little
upper support...this feature should be dry as it approaches central
IL...with perhaps some mid-level cloud cover. However...by afternoon
an upper shortwave currently over the Dakotas will pass over the
frontal zone in SE Illinois which may provide enough lift...combined
with convergence along the frontal zone...for a slight chance for
showers. Otherwise...mild temperatures for this time of year will
continue early today with cooling beginning by late afternoon behind
the cold front. Highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 north of
I-70 to the low 50s south of I-70. Winds will be somewhat breezy
with SW winds around 15 mph in the morning shifting to westerly
behind the front. Mixed layer momentum transfer suggests gusts to
around 25 mph due to 950 mb winds of 20-25 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

High pressure ridge losing ground to approaching storm system
moving in from the northwest, diving into the region and bringing
precipitation and considerably colder air.  Later this evening,
models fairly split on some scattered precipitation with a
prefrontal trof, mainly in the east and SE along the IL/IN
border...mainly as rain.  As this is slight chances in the forecast,
the better chances for precipitation are increasing from NW to SE
through the overnight, with snow spreading across Central Illinois
by tomorrow. Another vast area of lift, but with limited moisture in
the air limiting the snowfall.  This general ascent will result in
an inch or so across much of Central Illinois, mainly Monday/Monday
night, and lingering in the east on Tuesday.  Bitter cold
temperatures are moving into the region behind the snowfall,
dropping the chilliest temps in the forecast for the middle of the
week.  Whereas the snow pack may not be that deep, and likely to be
blown around by rather blustery winds, the models are getting a few
degrees cooler from the run 24 hrs ago.  Concerned that the
climatology may be erroneously pulling the guidance up too far with
the -20C air on its way into the midlevels on Wed...and have knocked
the max/min temps down from Tue night through to Thursday morning.
After the coldest portions of the forecast midweek, a slow warming
trend will bring the temps back up to more seasonal values by the
end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions expected into this evening over the central IL
airports, then MVFR ceilings move in from nw to se between 06Z-09Z
along with light snow chances and possible MVFR vsbys especially
later tonight into Monday morning. Breezy WSW winds of 13-18 kts
and gusts of 20-27 kts this afternoon to veer WNW overnight into
Monday morning, and increase to around 15 kts with gusts 18-25 kts
Monday morning. A stronger northern stream short wave/trof over
the upper Midwest will dig into IL and the Ohio river valley by
overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile surface 999 mb low
pressure near Internatial Falls MN will track ESE into far
northern lower MI by 18Z/noon Monday. This will bring the light
snow showers, MVFR conditions and increase WNW winds.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07


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