Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 301739
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1239 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...MAINLY TO LOWER
POPS. SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO
INDIANA. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
TRIGGERS A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGESTING THE BEST
AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF
A RUSHVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKE MICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SFC PATTERN WILL PREVENT AN INCREASE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA...SO ANY MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OR FROM
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE FAST GROWING CORN/BEAN FIELDS. EVEN
THOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE WEAK AS WELL...STILL THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL WEST WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ACTUALLY THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUES IN THIS ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR A COUPLE OF DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.  IN THE SHORTER TERM, TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
DWINDLING OF ANY ACTIVITY LEFT OVER FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE HIGHER POPS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND DOWN ALONG THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY.  MODELS SLOW THE WAVE AND
CONTINUE ITS IMPACT INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. PRECIP ALMOST SKIRTING THE
BUILDING SFC RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE POPS CLOSE.
HOWEVER, THU-SAT...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT WITH THE
POPS AND PUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL IN A DRY SPOT WITH THAT SFC
RIDGE BUILDING.  GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH TRENDING DRIER...EVEN
PUSHING THE FRI SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF
NOT QUITE AS DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS
THE SUPERBLEND IS STILL WORKING OUT ITS PREV GUESS AND DEALING WITH
THE WETTER ECMWF. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME, ANOTHER WAVE IS
SHOWING UP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND POPS RETURNING SAT
NIGHT/SUN.  WITH A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THIS SHIFT AS WELL. BUT FOR NOW...STARTING THE DRIER TREND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A
POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TRACK...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS WILL BE
ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MVFR
CEILINGS AND VCTS AFTER 13/14Z AT KSPI AND KDEC. FURTHER
NORTH...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AT THE I-74 TAF SITES. THE
ONLY OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOG TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NUMERIC
GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE SOME LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE LOWERED
VISBYS TO AROUND 3SM AFTER 09Z ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BARNES


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