Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 031638
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1038 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

Forecast generally looked on track today and just a few
adjustments to the forecast today with extending chances of
light rain/snow showers (flurries and sprinkles further south) to
areas north of a Taylorville to Paris line today. MVFR clouds 1-3k
ft have spread se toward Lawrenveille by late morning and expect
overcast skies rest of today and into the evening. Brisk WSW winds
of 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph to veer WNW during afternoon.
These winds combined with overcast low clouds will not allow temps
to climb much today and will likely slip a few degrees during the
day over central IL. Temperatures currently range from 32-37F from
I-55 nw to the lower 40s from I-70 southeast. The freezing line
near Galesburg to push se toward I-72 by 23Z/5 pm.

996 mb surface low pressure north of Georgian Bay Canada was a
trof extending sw into nw parts of MI/IL and into central MO. Low
pressure to lift ne into western Quebec by sunset while surface
and upper level trof pivot se across central and into southeast IL
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The progress and track of the occluded low and trailing surface
trough from eastern Iowa to the northeast this morning will play a
role in how far southeast the chances for rain or snow will
extend into central IL. Satellite and radar loops are pointing
toward the better chances of precipitation remaining west of I-55
this morning, with high resolution models indicating some
sprinkles or flurries lingering north of I-74 into this afternoon.

A brief period of clearing in central and eastern Illinois early
this morning will be followed by increasing clouds from the west by
mid to late morning. Forecast soundings indicate clouds should then
prevail across the entire area this afternoon, and upstream
observations also point toward that scenario.

Blustery southwest winds at 15 gusting to 30 mph this morning will
become west to northwest this afternoon, making the mid to upper
30s feel quite a bit colder. Winds will remain brisk until closer
to sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A fairly quiet weather pattern is on tap into the weekend. As a pair
of long wave troughs pass through the region, some clipper-type
systems will zip through the Midwest. Right now, they are expected
to stay to our north, so the forecast will be dry through Sunday. No
significant cold surges are expected during this period, and highs
should return to the 40s across the entire forecast area by the
weekend.

Some differences are setting up in regards to the cold surge early
next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF dig a broad trough southward
across the Plains on Sunday, with a cutoff upper low over the
southeast U.S. However, the latter model is quicker in cutting off a
low within the trough just to our northwest as early as Sunday
night, while the GFS drops an upper low out of central Canada into
Illinois by midday Tuesday. The GFS solution continues to bring a
large lobe of Arctic air with it, while the ECMWF only brings some
small pieces of it and keeps the bulk of the cold air to our north.
The discrepancy results in about a 10-15 degree spread in expected
temperatures between the two models. For now, will split the
difference and drop highs into the 20s by Tuesday. However,
confidence levels are rather low that far out at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MVFR clouds will overspread all terminal sites early in this TAF
period, reaching CMI shortly after 13z. MVFR clouds will remain
entrenched across the entire area over the next 24 hours, as
expansive low pressure in the upper atmosphere remains in control
of the local weather. A few flurries or brief periods of
drizzle/sprinkles could occur at times today. However, no impact
is expected from any light precipitation that occurs.

A bigger concern will be gusty SW winds sustained at 15-20kt and
gusting to 30kt this morning. Wind directions will become westerly
this afternoon, as wind gusts continue in the 20-30kt range. Winds
are expected to diminish to 10-15kt sustained toward mid-evening.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.