Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 290409
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Weak shortwave seen on the water vapor loop over central Missouri
has brought an increase in high level cloud cover over most of our
area this evening. That feature expected to push to our east after
midnight taking most of the clouds with it. With the cloud cover
over most of the area this evening, temperatures have been a bit
slower to fall off but expect that to change when the cirrus deck
shifts off to our east after midnight. Have made some minor tweeks
to the cloud cover and winds for this evening with the rest of the
forecast looking on target. Will send out an update to address the
minor changes by 910 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Cold front has moved well southeast of the region this afternoon
with cooler air filtering into the Midwest.  Overnight weather
anticipated to be quiet and cool.  Temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance with clearing skies and efficient radiational cooling
through the night.  Though the gusts will lessen after
midnight...pressure gradient winds out the of the west will stay up
around 7-10 mph. Additional shortwave diving into the larger trof to
the north bringing some potential low clouds into the northern
portion of the state, but expected to remain scattered in Peoria and
Bloomington and have a negligible impact.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet weather expected overall across central and southeast Illinois
for the next few days. However, conditions should trend more active
toward the beginning of the next work week. Temperatures through the
next week will average below normal, a change from the above normal
levels seen for much of October. These cooler than normal
temperatures should be at their coldest late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, likely resulting in the first hard freeze of the
fall locally.

Northwest upper level flow will persist into the weekend, helping to
keep cool conditions in place. A weak disturbance in the flow,
currently over the Pacific Northwest/Southwest Canada, is progged to
arrive around Thursday. The models have been generating a little
rainfall with this disturbance, but the dry airmass it will be
moving through should keep precipitation to a minimum.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow Thursday`s disturbance.
This, combined with a chilly Canadian surface high, will produce
good radiational cooling conditions for Friday night and a likely
hard freeze by early Saturday morning.

A progressive ridge will build across the area by late in the
weekend, providing a slight moderation in temperatures. This ridge
will be followed by a wave of Pacific origin, and likely bring more
widespread rain to the region by Monday into Tuesday. The models
differ quite a bit in the details, but there is a hint that the
precipitation threat may linger for a few days as the accompanying
surface front parallels the upper flow and stalls before leaving the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR conditions expected thru this forecast period. Band of high
level clouds beginning to shift off to our east late this evening
with a clear sky expected over most of the area for the remainder
of the night. Forecast soundings for Wednesday still suggesting
some stratocumulus clouds developing by late morning with bases
in the 3500-4500 foot level. Surface winds will be westerly
tonight and west to northwest at 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith






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