Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 261550
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1050 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE A FEW UPDATES TO POPS/WEATHER AND HOURLY TEMPS FOR TODAY
BASED ON TRENDS OF CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IL
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EAST CENTRAL IL BY THE NOON HOUR. A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED THE PAST HOUR, SO ONLY A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS-ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, WHICH MAY HELP TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT CUMULUS WILL MOST LIKELY RAPIDLY FILL
IN. THE HRRR, NAM12 AND RAP ALL SEEM TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE OZARKS WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL IL, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS, STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE, IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS INDICATING LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT STILL IS WEST OF THE CWA. RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
SEVERAL MCVS WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS MOVING NORTH THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MO. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PCPN REDEVELOPING
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY BUT STILL
EXPECTING ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS, JUST NOT ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING
SEVERE, WHICH SHOULD BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WHERE LESS
CLOUDS WILL BE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO TEMPER WARM UP AS WELL SO ONLY
EXPECTING UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN PAST TWO DAYS.
POPS WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE TODAY REACHING LIKELY LATER THIS
MORNING AND THEN MOVING NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
CHANCE CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A TAD GUSTY AGAIN, JUST NOT AS MUCH AS
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE PULLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, LINGERING
POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FA FOR THIS EVENING.  BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PROVIDE A BIT OF FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS DIFFERING
WITH THE NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE PRECIP, BUT LAST FEW RUNS BRINGING
IN SOME PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST.  NAM IS A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT CONCENTRATING THE POPS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST FOR NOW.  TIMING ISSUES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS SYNOPTIC RUN
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICK ON THE HEELS AS THE DEEP WAVE OVER THE SW
STARTS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION AND PRECIP STARTS TO
SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IN THE MODELS WITH  WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL.  WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...BUT THAT NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND TO FOCUS THE RAIN, WITH A
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT DROPPING THE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND OUT OF
THE 80S FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS LOW
STRATUS LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER ALL SITES UNTIL SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPI IS THE ONLY ONE AT MVFR STATUS RIGHT NOW. ALL OTHER TAF SITES
ARE MVFR. BY THIS AFTERNOON ALL SITES SHOULD BE MVFR WITH HIGHER
CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS RADAR
LOOPS SHOWS. THEN HAS THE DAY HEATS UP THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD END SOMETIME EARLY THIS
EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN BE VFR AS THE AREA SHOULD BE WELL IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THERE COULD BE MORE PCPN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THERE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SOME GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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