Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 170848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
348 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Not a lot of large scale changes in this round of the forecast.
Models still in a warming trend with nothing in the way of precip
until the weekend. A break in the continuity of the weekends
system is hinted in the 00z run.

High pressure ridge is still in place, with the axis stretching
from the Southern Plains to New England. A small disturbance
creating a few clouds over the region the only break in the mild
weather. This morning is slightly warmer than yesterday, and the
beginning of a warming trend through the week. Todays highs should
reach around or near 70 degrees across Central IL, with
southwesterly winds assisting warm air advection for the region.
Tonight will be a couple degrees warmer than this morning...again
continuing the trend.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Latter half of the work week continues the warming trend with
temperatures considerably warmer than climatology. By Friday, 850
mb temps climb to 15C-18C, and reflective high temperatures are
expected in the mid to upper 70s. Have boosted the max temps a
degree or two above guidance Wed-Fri. Aloft, the trof shifts
eastward, beginning a trend to a more zonal flow for the end of
the week. With the ridging over the south/southeastern CONUS, the
more active stream shifts north, minimizing a wave midweek for the
area. Forecast remains dry and well above normal through the end
of the work week.

Models agree with a break in the pattern moving into the weekend
with a more amplified wave digging in over the western half of the
CONUS. However, the 00z run of the ECMWF is now dropping the
energy into a cut off low to the south, chopping the QPF depiction
in half...and potentially putting Central IL in a break. For now,
forecast keeping to a fropa and associated pops this weekend...but
have limited to likelies...and pulling categorical should the GFS
shift similarly. The cold front is slated to move through the
region late Saturday/early Sunday, resulting in a rainy weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours as high pressure
dominates the weather pattern. Skies skc-sct250. Light SSW winds
4-8 kts increasing from 14-18Z becoming 10-15 kts with gusts near
20 kts. Wind speeds decreasing to 6-10 kts after 00Z.




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