Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 281934
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF
WAS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND INTO NE IA AND NW IL.
12Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
CENTRAL IL BY 06Z/1 AM TONIGHT. ALREADY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL AT MID AFTERNOON AS FAR SE AS
I-70 FROM WEAKENING MCS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS
AIRMASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF.
CONVECTION TO THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF IL INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS FROM PEORIA TO LINCOLN TO SHELBVILLE SW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING FOR 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL AND 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. AREAS SW OF WINCHESTER IN SW
SCOTT COUNTY HAS AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WHERE UP
TO 30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL. INSTABILITY ELEVATES A BIT TO 1000-1600
J/KG SW CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SOME HEATING
AS CLOUDS BREAK UP FOR A TIME (ALREADY HAPPENING FROM I-55 WEST)
WITH WEAKENING MCS OVER CENTRAL IL. MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER MO
WHERE CAPES PEAK FROM 2-3K J/KG. THE BULK SHEAR IS MORE IMPRESSIVE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 35-40 KTS SW OF I-74 AND THE BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO STRONGER SW OVER MO WHERE 40-50 KTS. SO THE BIGGER SEVERE WX
THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WILL BE
OVER MO AND SW IL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST
READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LITTLE IN OVERALL LONG-WAVE PATTERN CHANGE FORECASTED BY MODELS AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE REMAINING FROM THE ROCKIES WEST AND
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH SHUNTED
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD
AND INTERACT WITH SHORT-WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. MODELS
OFTEN HAVE PROBLEMS FORECASTING THESE TYPE OF WAVES MORE THAN A FEW
DAYS OUT AND WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BROADBRUSH MID-WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE WED-FRI AS 12Z GFS
PRECIP WATER APPROACHES 2 INCHES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
WILL TEMPORARILY SHUNT DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF ILLINOIS. STILL MAY BE
SOME RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY...BUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY OR LAST WEEK.

WITH TROUGH IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE JUNE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

A WEAKENING MCS OVER SE IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL IS TRACKING ESE
INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY MOVING THROUGH SPI. DEC WILL GET SKIRTED BY
THIS CONVECTION IN NEXT HOUR WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINS. MEANWHILE BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED INTO MID AFTERNOON ALONG I-74 (PIA...BMI AND
CMI). MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN IA AND NE MO AHEAD OF 1007 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER CENTRAL IL AND TRACK SE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS IN HEAVIER RAINS TO CENTRAL
IL THOUGH MOST OF THE TIME WILL STILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. MODELS
SHOW QPF PASSING SHIFTING EAST OF CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 03-07Z FROM
WEST TO EAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER 15Z/MON. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO VEER NNW 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE ILLINOIS FROM HAVANA DOWNSTREAM.
RIVER LEVELS HAVE CRESTED FROM HENRY TO PEROIA AND SHOULD VERY
SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...LEVELS WILL STILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FROM HAVANA SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WITHIN A FOOT OF RECORD LEVELS AT
LAGRANDE...MERIDOSA...AND BEARDSTOWN. INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER
FROM MASON AND FULTON COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...07
HYDROLOGY...BARKER


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