Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251443
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CDT CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Sunny skies prevail across central and southeast Illinois this
morning, thanks to a strong upper-level ridge extending from New
England to the Southern Plains. Convection remains well to the
northwest along the periphery of the ridge from central/eastern
Iowa northeastward into the Great Lakes. This activity will remain
northwest of the KILX CWA throughout the day, with only some minor
cirrus blow-off possible across the northwest. This will do little
to impede the warming trend, as this is setting up to be the
hottest day of the entire summer. 14z/9am temperatures are already
in the lower to middle 80s, well on their way to afternoon highs
in the lower to middle 90s. With dewpoints hovering in the upper
70s, peak heat index readings will range from 105 to 115 this
afternoon. As a result, Heat Advisories/Warnings remain in place
for the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Very hot and humid conditions will continue today under the dome of
high pressure. No storms are expected across central and SE Illinois
due to the synoptic subsidence. Highs will climb a couple degrees
above Sunday, with heat index readings in the 105 to 112 range
across the board. All heat headlines look on track and no
adjustments will be needed with this update.

A cold front to the NW of IL will slowly approach over the next 24
hours. A 500mb shortwave is projected to move northeast along the
front tonight as the front reaches near the Illinois river by
12z/7am Tuesday. Storms will initially develop in NE Iowa and NW
Illinois this evening and advance with the front toward our
counties. We kept slight chance PoPs for the evening for areas NW of
Peoria. Then after midnight we went with chance PoPs for the same
area, and slight chance as far southeast as Rushville to El Paso. No
severe weather is expected, but some locally heavy rainfall could
develop in the very moist air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Placement of the frontal boundary will be a challenge through the
period. The upper ridge will become flattened a bit by mid week as a
shortwave tracks across the upper Great Lakes region. An upper low
currently evident on water vapor imagery over southeast Oregon will
slowly track eastward through the week, likely not reaching our area
until the weekend. Evening model suite in general agreement with
pushing the frontal boundary southward to around I-72 by early
Wednesday, as surface high pressure builds southeast into the Great
Lakes. However, they start to diverge a bit after that as heights
begin to rise again ahead of the Oregon wave.

Main convective bands through midweek will track across Iowa and
northern Illinois, but rain chances will spread southward Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Latest ECMWF and GEM models have rain chances
as far south as I-70 by afternoon, but the NAM/GFS hold the cap that
far south in place until evening. The cloud cover with these storms
has some potential for limiting the high temperatures on Tuesday,
especially over the northern CWA, with heat index values a bit lower
as well. High dew points have been the trend the last couple days,
and should see that continuing to bring heat index values into the
103-107 range. No changes anticipated to the heat headlines at this
time. The cloud cover should be more extensive mid to late week as
highs drop back into the 80s, so heat index values should remain
below 100 for the most part.

Longer range models trying to show a trend toward a brief drier
period Thursday night and Friday morning ahead of the wave moving
into the central U.S.  The latest ECMWF would suggest the first half
of the weekend could end up dry as well, while the GFS drags the
front through early Saturday as it is picked up by a shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes. The upper features of the two models
are continuing to show more agreement through Friday at least, but
confidence wanes again during the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

Some IFR fog will linger around BMI, PIA, and CMI through 14z,
with MVFR fog at SPI and DEC. Fog should lift to VFR by 15z. A
very hot airmass under subsidence from high pressure will keep
clouds mostly in check. The exception will be for PIA and BMI as
they will be the closest to clouds from a storm complex clipping NW
Illinois this morning. By afternoon, even those clouds should
generally dissipate after the storm complex weakens.

Storm chances will approach PIA after midnight tonight, as a cold
front drops southeast to near the Illinois River by 12z/7am.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover, MVFR fog could develop at
PIA and the other terminals later tonight. CMI could see more IFR
fog, but we held off going that low with this TAF issuance.

Winds will start out S-SE, and become S-SW during the day remain
there overnight. Speeds should generally remain below 10kt over
the next 24 hours.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ042-047>054-
056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ036-040-041.

HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ027>031-037-038-
043>046-055-057.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON






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