473
FXUS63 KILX 110820
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon
  into evening. Damaging winds, hail, a tornado or two, and heavy
  rainfall are forecast. Timing looks to be from 4pm to 12am.

- Daily chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms will be seen
  through the weekend. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather
  in place for Saturday and Sunday.

- Hot and humid conditions will be in place through the end of
  this week and again early next week. Temperatures look to trend
  cooler by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Storms over Iowa are expected to weaken as they get into Illinois
this morning, but some lingering rumbles of thunder and rain are
possible for north central IL early this morning.

Today, the SPC has us in a SLIGHT (level 2 of 5) risk for the areas
north of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line. The marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) expands southward from a Danville to St. Louis line.
A warm front will lift north of the area, bringing more humid air
with it. The suite of CAMs are showing an average of 2000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE this afternoon, with the HRRR only showing 1000-2000 J/kg.
Dewpoints will be in the 70s, giving us plenty of moisture,
especially if the corn helps out. Decent 0-1km SRH and bulk shear of
30-40 knots will aid in the severe threat this evening. Timing looks
to be starting around 21z going until about 06z. This is a all
hazards event, with a 5% tornado chance (far northern CWA), 15% (5%)
wind risk north of IL River Valley (north of a Danville to STL
line), and 5% hail risk north of IL River Valley.

A Flood Watch has been issued for Knox, Stark, and Marshall counties
for this evening. These counties saw decent rainfall last night,
making their grounds more susceptible to localized flooding. BUT
these storms will likely have very heavy rain in them, with rain
rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Localized flash flooding is a concern
we have. PWATs of 1.9-2.2 are forecast, which would provide the
atmosphere with enough juice to dump rain on any one location. WPC
has us in a slight risk ERO today north of I-72.

Rain chances continue into Sunday, along with marginal risk of
severe weather from the SPC. Sunday night into Tuesday morning looks
to be dry with ridging taking over. More showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast Tuesday going into Thursday as another
trough sloshes through.

Today, we will be hot and humid again, with highs in the low 90s and
heat indices of 100-105. A cold front passes over Saturday, dropping
highs into the 80s. By Tuesday, highs will be back into the low 90s.
There is a signal temperatures could cool ever so slightly by late
week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A warm front has lifted into northern Illinois and will serve as
the main focus for storms through the period. Across central
Illinois, outside of the influence of storms, expect VFR
conditions and a modest SSW/S breeze to prevail. Gusts to around
20 kt are expected during the afternoon and evening hours. There
will be a couple potential windows of showers and storms on
station. The first will be with ongoing storms sagging south into
central Illinois late this evening. Confidence remains low in
reaching the terminals, but they may reach PIA/BMI around 06/07Z
and persist a couple hours. Another round of storms is expected
late Friday afternoon or evening and again have the highest
confidence further north at PIA/BMI.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this afternoon through late tonight for ILZ027-
028-030.

&&

$$