Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
333 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are expected across central
and southeast Illinois today in advance of a cold front. This front
will be driven by a fast moving short wave. The wave is currently
located over the northern Plains/southern Canadian Prairies, and
should reach the mid-Atlantic states by Monday morning. Expect the
front to clear the forecast area during the afternoon and evening
hours today, but not before gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front push temperatures into the 70s. The local airmass will be too
dry for rainfall with the frontal passage, and cloud cover should be
minimal as well. Cooler temperatures, but more normal for late
October, will filter across the area tonight behind the front.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Pleasant stretch of fall weather to continue through Tuesday across
central and southeast IL as dry conditions are expected to continue.
1030 mb settles into the Midwest on Monday. This to bring a fair
amount of sunshine Monday with seasonable highs in the lower to
middle 60s, with mildest readings in sw CWA. A seasonably cool night
expected Monday night with high pressure nearby. Lowered lows a bit
more into the upper 30s and lower 40s with coolest readings ne half
of CWA. Mid and high clouds to increase over nw CWA later Monday
night and increase over central IL on Tue with next wx system moving
into the central plains. Plenty of sunshine expected again on Tue
over southeast IL. Highs Tue of 60-65F and again mildest SW CWA.

A mid level trof to move east into IL by sunset Wed with surface low
pressure still expected to track north of central IL, moving over
southern WI Wed night. Continued small chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms nw of IL river later Tue night. Then chances
of showers and isolated thunderstorms increase from west to east
during the day Wed and then decrease from west to east by overnight
Wed night. Highs Wed to range from upper 50s to around 60F from
Peoria north to the upper 60s south of I-70. Fairly progressive
upper level flow to push wx system east of IL by Thu morning with
dry conditions expected over IL on Thu and cooler temps. Highs in
the upper 50s/lower 60s Thu as skies become partly to mostly sunny
Thu. Dry conditions expected Thu night and Friday as another high
pressure settles into the Great Lakes region.

A northern stream system to skirt across the region from overnight
Fri night into Sat evening and could bring a chance of showers.
Highs still above normal in the 60s Friday-Sunday with lows in the
upper 40s and lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 06z TAF period, as
high pressure gradually pulls away to the southeast. Winds the
rest of tonight will remain S-SW at 5 to 8 kt. Tomorrow, an
approaching cold front will increase the mixing of gusty LLJ winds
down to the surface. Wind gusts will increase to 16-18kt between
15z-18z, then increase to gusts of 22-25kt after 18z as winds
veer from SW to W-SW. Little to no clouds are expected, as the air
mass remains very dry. The dry cold frontal passage will occur
during the afternoon, and winds will shift W to W-NW as we
progress through tomorrow evening.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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