Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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258
FXUS63 KILX 041644
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Forecast generally on track today and only needed to adjust the
sky cover a bit today. By late morning most of CWA is enjoying
ample sunshine, expect for some lingering scattered/broken 3k ft
clouds east of I-57 and some ceilings near the Indiana border.
Another area of clouds from 6-10k ft was over IA and tracking
toward nw IL/MS river. 1035 mb high pressure over central Texas
was ridging into the mid MS river valley/sw IL. Aloft an upper
level trof will remain over IL today and then shift east of IL
by overnight. An embedded weak northern stream short wave over IA
will track into the IL river valley later this afternoon and
increase VFR clouds into mainly northern half of CWA from I-72
north during this afternoon as sunny skies become partly to mostly
cloudy over IL river valley during afternoon. Seasonable highs
this afternoon in the mid to upper 30s (mildest readings sw CWA)
with west winds of 8-16 mph and few gusts to 20 mph, and winds
veering more sw during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

High pressure advancing into Illinois from the west will push the
remainder of the low clouds into Indiana shortly after sunrise. A
low pressure system approaching Wisconsin today will drag a band of
clouds into northern Illinois this afternoon. The clouds may affect
our counties north of Lincoln, but overall coverage should not
become overcast at any point. In general, most of our forecast area
should see enough sunshine today to help high temperatures climb to
around normal readings. Afternoon highs should range from the mid
30s in our northeast counties towards Danville, to the upper 30s in
the southwest around Jacksonville.

As the high pressure center edges closer to IL, the pressure
gradient will continue to diminish, helping to curtail the wind
gusts, which will be a nice change from yesterday`s blustery
conditions. By mid-morning, we expect winds to steady out in the 8
to 12 mph range and remain there through the day. Wind direction
will shift from W-NW this morning to W-SW this afternoon as the
surface ridge axis passes across IL.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Broad upper trough covers a large part of the central U.S. this
morning, and will approach the East Coast on Friday. Second trough
currently evident along the Pacific coast of British Columbia will
dig this evening as it crosses the Rockies, and should be centered
over the Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. Main energy with
this second trough will be closer to the Great Lakes, so the
forecast will be kept dry to start the weekend. A nice warm-up on
tap as the upper trough passes, and highs both Saturday and Sunday
should be well into the 40s, with perhaps some 50 degree readings
south of I-70.

Main story in this part of the forecast remains with the cold
weather slated for early next week. GFS and ECMWF are coming into
better agreement with a large closed upper low forming over the
upper Mississippi Valley early next week, settling into southern
Ohio by Tuesday morning. Cold air of around -17C at 850 mb will be
drawn southward behind the low all the way down into the Tennessee
Valley. Extent of the cold temperatures will be dependent on any
snow cover that may form, which is feasible as persistent snow
showers will rotate southeast from the associated surface low near
the Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. Even without the snow,
temperatures likely to fall into the single digits Tuesday night
over most of the CWA, with highs struggling to reach the 20s on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

High pressure will bring dry air today, and provide VFR conditions
over the next 24 hours. MVFR clouds will finally clear east of DEC
by 13z and CMI by 14z. West winds will start out on the brisk
side in the 12-16kt range. However, a weakening pressure gradient
should allow winds to diminish to 8-11kt later this morning and
this afternoon. Wind directions will shift to the southwest later
today and this evening as a low pressure trough enters into NW IL.
That low will bring some mid clouds across mainly northern IL, but
PIA and BMI could see a BKN ceiling in the 4K-5K FT layer. Later
tonight, winds should begin to become westerly again after the
trough progresses into eastern IL.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon



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