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000
FXUS63 KILX 130450
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

Current forecast looks ok, but need to make some adjustments for
cloud cover and location of the snow showers/flurries for rest
of the evening/night. Looks like some snow will linger past
midnight in the southeast. Winds have died off quickly as well, so
will be looking at need to adjust them as well. Update should be
out in a few.

Auten
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

Except for DEC, all other TAF sites will see VFR conditions next
24hrs. Believe DEC cig may be influenced by ADM plant to northwest
of airport, that puts out enough smoke/vapor to bring cigs down
lower than surrounding areas. However, do not believe this will
last long, so will start with VFR but have MVFR tempo group for
several hours at beginning. Flurries still occurring at BMI, but
believe, based on radar trends, that this will diminish soon, so
will not include in new TAF. BMI, DEC, CMI clouds will become
scattered by morning. Believe scattered diurnal clouds will
prevail at all sites tomorrow, then skies will become clear around
sunset. Winds will be light and variable as high pressure ridge
moves over the area overnight. Then winds will become southerly
during the morning hours and continue through the rest of the TAF
period. Winds will increase to around 14kts tomorrow, then
decrease during the evening.

Auten
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday

First issue in the immediate short-term will be whether or not
skies will clear tonight. 19z/2pm satellite imagery shows Illinois
blanketed in clouds: however, much of the cloud cover has a
diurnal appearance. Think some of this will erode by sunset, but
will be replaced by mid-clouds further upstream over Minnesota/Iowa.
Model RH profiles suggest mostly cloudy skies at least through the
evening, with partial clearing overnight. Given presence of
shearing vort max on water vapor imagery over Minnesota, think
enough lift/moisture will be present to support clouds and perhaps
a few lingering flurries this evening, with partly cloudy skies
expected after midnight.

As high pressure shifts east of the region, southerly winds will
begin to bring warmer air back into Illinois on Thursday. 850mb
temps are progged to climb to around 2c by the end of the day,
supporting afternoon highs well into the 40s. A tightening
gradient between the departing high and an approaching front will
create gusty southwesterly winds Thursday night into Friday.
Thanks to the steady southerly flow and ample sunshine, highs on
Friday will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Thursday, with
readings ranging from the middle 50s northwest of the Illinois
River to the lower 60s south of I-70. Weak cold front will drop
through the region late Friday, accompanied by little more than a
few clouds and a shift in the wind, followed by slightly cooler
weather for Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday

Temperature roller-coaster ride continues in the extended, as a
more significant chunk of cold air arrives for late in the
weekend. Resulting high temps on Sunday will mainly be in the
30s, with 40s across the SE KILX CWA. May see a few light rain
and/or snow-showers around on Sunday: however, strongest lift will
remain to the north and south of central Illinois in split-flow
regime. Have therefore only maintained slight chance POPs for
Sunday. After that, temperatures will once again begin climbing,
with readings back into the 50s by next Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$