Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 270204
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A brief re-intensification has occurred along a couple of outflow
boundaries from earlier today, with some thunder development.
Coverage should remain isolated in general, but have extended the
mention of thunder for the next few hours of the evening, mainly
for our southwest counties south of a line from Lincoln to
Rushville. The HRRR and RAP output show showers lingering until
midnight, but remaining weak and isolated. Have kept the PoPs in
the slight chance to low chance categories the rest of the
evening, and went dry after midnight.

Patchy fog, some locally dense, is the other concern later
tonight under light winds and generally clear skies. Boundary
layer moisture appears sufficient for fog development based on
our lowest dewpoints during peak heating this afternoon along with
forecast low temps. Will add some patchy fog to the forecast,
especially where HRRR shows some dense fog from Bloomington to
Lincoln in the central part of our forecast area.

Lows look on track for the low to mid 50s, but we can`t rule out a
few upper 40s in traditional colder spots.

Tomorrow looks to be a pleasant day, with sunny skies, light
westerly winds, and slightly warmer high temps in the mid to upper
70s.

Updated forecast info will be available shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A weak front will continue to move south through the CWA this
evening. The clearing that has occurred has allowed some heating
and instability to occur/develop over parts of the area. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms will remain possible late this
afternoon through early this evening. The precip should wane
around sunset leaving the remainder of the evening dry with skies
becoming clear. Dry weather is expected then to build into the
area late tonight and into tomorrow as high pressure builds into
the region.

Temps will remain on the cool side tonight and through tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
area Tue night as the pattern becomes more zonal. Then another
weather system will quickly move into the area beginning Wed. As
the front moves through the CWA it will become parallel with the
flow by Thur and then sit somewhere over the area through the rest
of the week. Models appear to be in fairly good agreement with the
front draped across central IL through this period, which means
showers and storms will remain possible. Models also look similar
with timing of individual waves moving along the front so
consensus forecast of likely pops somewhere in central IL Wed
night through Fri looks like a good forecast at the moment. Into
the weekend the front should get pushed out of the area to the
southeast. However, additional chances of precip will return for
later part of the weekend and into the beginning of next week as
the pattern returns to a somewhat northwest flow with a upper
level trough over the Great Lakes region.

Temps will also get warmer again ahead of the next system and then
remain that way through the week, evening with precip/clouds and
the front somewhere across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A line of showers will continue to drift south through central
Illinois early this evening. There has been a steady weakening
trend in the convection, and little to no additional lightning is
expected during the first couple hours of the 00z TAF period. Have
not included any thunder as a result, with just VCSH primarily as
the diminishing showers linger through 02z.

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, with the
lowest ceilings during any showers early this evening at or above
4K ft.

High pressure will provide quiet aviation weather the remainder of
the TAF period, with light and variable winds overnight and light
westerly winds tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon



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