Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 290840
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAJORITY OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED OUT TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING.  ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE FROM EXITING TS RESULTING IN SOME
FOG THIS MORNING AND HAVE ADDED IN A COUPLE HOURS MAINLY IN THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS STILL OVER EASTERN ILX THIS MORNING AND
WILL KEEP CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN NWRLY FLOW/SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.  SHOULD KEEP SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AND INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NE, CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COOLER MID LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION SEEMING A BIT REPETITIVE AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
REMAINS IN A LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE FCST PD.  A
STEADY STREAM OF SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION KEEP POPS FOR
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. SOME TIMING
ISSUES REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN. FORECAST KEEPS SOME POPS IN TONIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AND INCREASING
TOWARDS MORNING WITH ANOTHER WAVE DIVING INTO THE MIDWEST IN NAM AND
GFS SOLUTIONS, WITH A BREAK TUES NIGHT POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE ON WED AND SO ON THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. WED/WED
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY SOME OF THE MORE FOCUSED POPS AS A BOUNDARY IS
APPARENT IN SFC WIND FIELDS IN THE MODELS.  ANY BOUNDARY LIKELY TO
SET UP IN THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MORE FOCUS/DYNAMICS FOR ANY SHORT
WAVE ASSISTED CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM.  THE SERIES OF WAVES STARTS
TO HAVE A LITTLE MORE DISSONANCE FROM MODEL TO MODEL GOING INTO THE
EXTENDED AS EXPECTED WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. OVERALL THE FORECAST
REMAINS WET AND STORMY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL NOT HAVE ANY PCPN IN
THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT OR WILL VERY
SOON...SO EXPECTING SCT TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
ALL THE MOISTURE WEVE HAD...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECTING
LIGHT FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN A FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
TIL AROUND SUNRISE. THEN MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW.
CIGS WILL RISE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE.
THEN EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT THEN BECOME NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


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