Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 212324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

High pressure continues to build into the Midwest, but a persistent
slow wave of light precipitation with the mid level winds.  Radar
returns relatively high, but most of the clouds are between 7000 and
8000 ft, expect a lot of virga...precip is running into a dry layer
that is evaporating much of the rain.  Echos have been weakening
with eastward progression.  NWerly winds becoming more northerly
this evening... and more northeasterly after midnight.  Easterly
component will continue to dry out the cloud levels through the
overnight and erode the ceilings. A lack of cloud cover throughout
most of the night will assist in providing effective radiational
cooling and temperatures will drop below the freezing mark.  As a
result, a freeze warning is in effect for southeastern IL. New
and/or sensitive vegetation will be impacted. Mostly sunny skies
will prevail tomorrow morning...with clouds slowly moving into the
region later in the afternoon as a quick wave rounds over the mid
level ridge to the west and dives into the mid Mississippi Valley.
Northeasterly winds, however, will keep the temperatures cooler the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A progressive upper level pattern will be in store for the Midwest
the next few days resulting in a return to warmer temperatures.
Upper level ridging is then expected to maintain a position to our
east for the weekend, resulting in several upper level shortwave
trofs moving across the area. This will give us a period of
unsettled weather into early next week.

Surface high pressure moving toward the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night will give us one more chilly night with temperatures
at or below freezing. Upper level ridging and a southerly wind flow
will allow temperatures to climb closer to seasonal normals
Thursday, although quite a few clouds should keep readings mainly in
the 50-55 range. Previous model runs indicated some light mixed
precipitation toward daybreak Thursday in west central IL as low
level overrunning sets up. However, the latest runs have backed off
on this, so will go with all rain - mainly along the IL River
Thursday morning, and along and north of I-74 in the afternoon-early
evening with the lifting warm front.

The GFS and NAM are trying to develop some spotty showers in the
warm sector on Friday, but a decent cap should keep most areas rain-
free, with a partly sunny sky and windy, warm weather. Temperatures
should climb into the lower to middle 70s, except in extreme eastern
IL where a few more clouds may be present. Shower and isolated
thunderstorm potential will increase rapidly Friday night west of
I-55 and across the whole forecast area Saturday as a stacked,
closed low slowly approaches the MS Valley. The European is a
quicker outlier with this solution, with the slower GFS/GEM
preferred in this situation.

The slow moving nature of this system will keep the likelihood of
showers and t-storms going through Saturday and into Sunday morning.
Widespread 0.75-1.50 inch rainfall amounts are expected Saturday
into Sunday afternoon, with locally higher totals in t-storms, due
to the prolonged nature of this system.

The upper level low will continue to weaken and eventually get
kicked out toward the eastern Great Lakes later Sunday giving us a
brief break in the precipitation. The upstream kicker/shortwave
trough, however, will approach Sunday night and into Monday giving
us the likelihood of more showers and a few t-storms into early


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected this forecast period. One concern
late this evening, primarily after 05z, will be the potential for
some sct-bkn cigs at around 1800-2500 that may shift southwest
off of Lake Michigan. Surface and boundary layer winds are
expected to shift into the northeast this evening and possibly
bring some clouds into our northern TAF sites late tonight. At
this time, looks like a low probability occurrence so will only
add a scattered group at BMI and PIA at this time. Elsewhere, the
mid level cloud cover is expected to continue to shift southeast
out of our area later this evening. Northwest winds around 10 kts
this evening will shift into the northeast between 02z-06z with
speeds in the 10 to 15 kt range with a few gusts up to 20 kts.
Northeast to east winds are expected on Wednesday at 10 to 15 kts.


Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ066>068-



LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Smith is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.