Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KILX 251124

National Weather Service Lincoln IL
524 AM CST WED NOV 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)

The CWA is in between the high pressure to the east and the
developing weather system in the plains. In this position, breezy
southerly winds and warmer temperatures are to be expected today.
With the increasing waa ahead of the developing system, an increase
in low level moisture is occurring, which is will bring an increase
in cloud cover to the area. The increasing clouds could retard the
warming trend this afternoon, but believe the strong waa should be
able to compensate. So, am expecting skies to become mostly cloudy
today with highs in the 50s and southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)

00Z models are similar with cold front moving east into the IL river
valley Thu night and across eastern IL Friday afternoon. Aloft,
strong 538 dm 500 mb low over northern CA into nw NV will move
across the central Rockies on Thu and remain near the Rockies this
weekend and eject ne into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday
night and Tue. This will likely bring an extended unsettled weather
pattern to IL with daily rain chances through early next week.

Chances of light rain showers moves into the IL river valley this
evening and deeper into central IL overnight while southeast IL
remains dry. Milder lows tonight in the upper 40s to around 50F with
clouds and breezy south winds. Clouds and breezy south winds
continue Thu with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Rain chances
also increase to 60-80% nw of the IL river by Thu afternoon and 40-
50% over heart of central IL while only 20-30% in southeast IL and
near the IN border. Rainfall amounts even nw of the IL river appear
fairly light on Thu with highest amounts near a quarter inch by

Increased lift with approaching cold front and deeper moisture to
bring highest rain chances Thu night into Friday along with heaviest
rainfall ranging from 1-1.5 inches with rain chances likely
lingering over southeast IL Friday night where storm total rainfall
of 1.50-1.75 inches. This may cause some rivers and streams to go
back to near flood especially at Clay City on the Little Wabash
river. Flash flood guidance is 1.5-2 inches per hour and 2-3 inches
in 6 hours so these rainfall amounts are still less than that and
will hold off on a flood watch.

Surface low pressure to lift ne along frontal boundary just
southeast of the Ohio river into nw KY by Sunday morning. This will
likely lift showers back ne into central IL during this weekend
especially Sat night into Sunday morning. Highest rain chances will
be over southeast IL along with heaviest rainfall amounts. Even
though temps cool by this weekend, they still appear warm enough to
support rain over our area. Lingered 20-30% chances of light rain
showers early next work week as upper level low moves into the area
and keeps it cloudier and cooler.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Clear skies will give way to clouds around 5kft moving into the
area this morning. The clouds will begin in the west at SPI and
PIA, then spread east and reach CMI last. Based on satellite
trends and upstream observations, looks like heights will remain
VFR levels, around 3.5kft. The clouds will continue through the
day and into the night ahead of the next weather system. HRRR and
NAM12 bring some light/scattered pcpn into the area beginning
late this afternoon and into tonight. Given the waa and all the
clouds, though not that low, will go with VCSH at all TAF sites in
the new forecast for late this afternoon and into this evening.
Winds will be southerly through the period with daytime gusts to
around 25kts. Winds will decrease some during the evening, but
expecting gusts to continue.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...Auten is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.