Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 190830
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Canadian high pressure will continue to move eastward today, but the
ridge will remain over the area through most of the day. Some patchy
light fog is still possible early this morning, so have included
this; but just for 12Z. After 12Z, conditions will improve rapidly.
Other than that, dry weather with sunny skies is expected today. Winds
should be light from the east to southeast and then become southerly
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures in the middle 70s by this
afternoon continues to look like a good forecast.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Main concern during this part of the forecast is with severe weather
potential Saturday afternoon and evening.

Shortwave currently over western Montana will start to dig more on
Saturday as it moves across the Dakotas. Cold front ahead of this
wave should start moving into northwest Illinois during the
afternoon. Nice southwest flow ahead of this front to draw a decent
amount of moisture into the region, with dew points rising to near
70 by early afternoon west of I-55. Latest SPC Day2 convective
outlook has a slight risk of severe weather over roughly the
northern half of the state. CAPE values across the northwest third
of the CWA expected to rise into the 2000-2500 J/kg range as the
moisture increases, with decent 0-6km shear values of 35-45 knots
progged by most of the models. Have added some small PoP`s to the
far northwest Saturday morning, but main show should be during the
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and some hail are the main
concerns. Temperatures on Saturday expected to reach the 80-85
degree range most areas.

Remainder of the forecast period expected to be quiet, as a surface
high slowly drifts from the Midwest into New England. Upper low that
will be spinning off the California coast for a couple days expected
to open up and eject northeast early next week, although latest long
range guidance tracks this feature northeast through Minnesota by
Thursday and currently looks like it should bypass us.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours across
central IL, although local IFR/MVFR visibilities in patchy shallow
fog are possible until around 12Z. Fog most likely along river
valley areas, including KPIA. Clear skies expected except for
FEW-SCT040 from 15Z-23Z. Winds E3-7 kts veering to S-SE7-12 kts
after 14Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...ONTON






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