Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 280202
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
902 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A broad band of showers and isolated thunderstorms stretches from
west central Illinois to the southern tip of Lake Michigan this
evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Cold
front is just crossing into Illinois at 9:00 p.m. and will
interact with the plume of rich moisture over Illinois to bring
widespread showers over central Illinois overnight. Models
indicating the front will reach southeastern Illinois around
12-15Z. Behind the front, showers will end rapidly as west-
northwest winds develop and temperatures decrease. Current
forecast is in good shape with these trends and no major updates
sent yet this evening. Later updates anticipated to refine ending
time of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed early this
afternoon, with 19z/2pm radar imagery showing the activity generally
northwest of a Taylorville to Champaign line. Synoptic cold front is
still well to the west, stretching from Minnesota to eastern
Kansas.  As warm advection strengthens, isolated convection will
continue across the area through the afternoon into the early
evening.  As stronger forcing arrives along the advancing front,
showers/storms will become more widespread across the Illinois River
Valley from mid to late evening, then will spread eastward toward
the Indiana border overnight. Due to limited instability after dark,
will only mention isolated thunder in the forecast.  Most areas will
receive rainfall tonight, but amounts will generally be less than
one half an inch. Front is progged to push east of the I-57 corridor
by 12z, with cooler/drier air pushing in behind it.  Resulting
overnight lows will range from the upper 40s far northwest around
Galesburg to the lower 60s along/southeast of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

Lingering rain across the southeast third of the forecast area to
move out early Tuesday morning, as the cold front sweeps through,
with skies quickly becoming mostly sunny. However, rather breezy
conditions will still occur, as the surface and upper low exit the
northern Great Lakes. The cooler air lags behind a bit, so most
areas should be well into the 60s before temperatures slip downward
a bit during the afternoon.

Quiet weather on tap through mid week, as high pressure settles
southeast toward the Ohio Valley. As the upper pattern transitions
toward a building ridge across the Rockies, a fast moving shortwave
is expected to drop southeast from the northern Plains. All the
morning models feature some sort of light precipitation with this
feature as it moves across our area on Thursday, although placement
varies. With forecast soundings exhibiting a fair amount of dry air
below 800 mb, will keep the rain chances at or below 20% for now.

Large Canadian high pressure expected to move into the Midwest late
week, ushering in what is likely to be the first freeze of the
season over all of central and southeast Illinois. Both Halloween
and Saturday will likely see a good portion of the area fail to
reach 50 degrees for a high, but temperatures start to moderate late
weekend as the high exits and the weakening upper ridge shifts over
the Mississippi Valley.

Focus early next week is on a pattern transition, as the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream phase over the Plains. Both
the ECMWF and GFS advertise rain showers overspreading our area
Sunday night and Monday, although the latter model is a bit on the
slower side for initial arrival.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A band of sct -shra/isold -tsra will continue to affect areas
mainly KIJX-KBMI westward until 03z, bringing isolated MVFR
cigs/vsby and gusty winds. This band to begin shifting eastward by
around 03Z, crossing central IL through 12Z as a cold frontal
boundary pushes eastward across the region. Once the front
passes, winds will veer to W/NW. After 15Z Tuesday, winds to
increase to around W 15g25 kts while skies clear in dry westerly
flow aloft.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.