Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 180512
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Clouds were tracking northeast into extreme southern Illinois this
evening ahead of an upper level wave which was located over
extreme southeast Oklahoma. The wave is forecast to track well
south of our area through early Saturday afternoon but the clouds
will continue to shift northeast into our area. Will have to keep
an eye out for our southeast counties where some light rain or
sprinkles may occur Saturday morning ahead of the wave, however,
latest forecast soundings continue to indicate quite a bit of dry
air will be in place from the surface up to around 700 mb. As a
result, will continue to keep that area rain free for now, but
if later model data indicates a bit more moisture flowing into
that area in the low levels, we may need to add some light rain
across southeast Illinois for Saturday. Other than some minor
adjustments to the early evening temperature grids, the rest of
the forecast for the remainder of the night into Saturday morning
looks fine. As a result, no evening ZFP update will be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

General surface ridging over the southeastern portion of the
country...resulting in warm air being moved into Central Illinois
today with sunny skies. Unseasonably warm weather expected to
continue through the weekend. Quiet weather overall...with
southwesterly winds and temperatures in the 40s overnight. However,
the storm system moving across the southern tier of the country will
edge clouds into the southern half of the state...limiting sunshine
and the max temps tomorrow. That being said...mid 60s is still well
above climatology for mid February.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Main weather story across central and southeast Illinois through
most of the period is the continued well above normal temperatures.
Daytime highs will average 20-30 degrees above normal, with nighttime
lows forecast above normal daytime highs. Temperature records will
continue to be broken for at least the next few days. See climate
section of discussion for the details.

A couple weather systems are forecast to impact the area during the
period. The first arrives Monday into Tuesday. This system has
trended faster in the guidance during the past 24 hours. The models
are also trending away from a strongly split northern/southern
stream with this system. Now the front, primarily driven by the
northern stream energy, is more apt to bring showers to the area.
However, there will be minimal cooling behind the front. The second,
much stronger system, will arrive for the end of the work-week. Most
of the rainfall with this system should hold off until Friday.
Colder air will spill into the area behind this late week system,
bringing at least a brief return to more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Little overall change in the forecast from earlier this
evening as high clouds continue to shift north into southern
Illinois. Not expecting cloud bases to be below 10,000 ft
across our southern TAF sites late tonight into Saturday as
the system and its rain passes well to our south. Further
north, not much more than some scattered to broken cirrus
during the period. Models continue to indicate some borderline
LLWS at PIA overnight but the trend over the past couple of
model runs has been to back off the wind speeds. Surface winds
at all TAF locations will continue from a southerly direction
overnight at 7 to 12 kts and turn more into a southwest to west
direction on Saturday with speeds holding in the 7 to 12 kt range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Friday Feb 17th...
Peoria........ 64 / 47
Lincoln....... 63 / 47
Springfield... 68 / 52
Champaign..... 69 / 47
Bloomington... 64 / 45
Decatur....... 61 / 48
Danville...... 71 / 51
Galesburg..... 60 / 43
Charleston.... 72 / 56
Effingham..... 68 / 49

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Saturday Feb 18th...
Peoria........ 63 / 42
Lincoln....... 63 / 39
Springfield... 65 / 43
Champaign..... 65 / 42
Bloomington... 63 / 44
Decatur....... 70 / 43
Danville...... 67 / 49
Galesburg..... 63 / 43
Charleston.... 68 / 48
Effingham..... 70 / 44

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Sunday Feb 19th...
Peoria........ 71 / 50
Lincoln....... 71 / 46
Springfield... 70 / 54
Champaign..... 68 / 46
Bloomington... 70 / 47
Decatur....... 66 / 48
Danville...... 70 / 54
Galesburg..... 63 / 52
Charleston.... 72 / 53
Effingham..... 70 / 45

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Monday Feb 20th...
Peoria........ 68 / 46
Lincoln....... 70 / 46
Springfield... 74 / 46
Champaign..... 71 / 45
Bloomington... 67 / 45
Decatur....... 70 / 47
Danville...... 70 / 48
Galesburg..... 64 / 41
Charleston.... 73 / 48
Effingham..... 68 / 54

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Tuesday Feb 21st...
Peoria........ 69 / 46
Lincoln....... 69 / 45
Springfield... 69 / 48
Champaign..... 67 / 47
Bloomington... 69 / 46
Decatur....... 68 / 48
Danville...... 67 / 50
Galesburg..... 68 / 40
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 73 / 52

Record Highs / Record Warm Lows - Wednesday Feb 22nd...
Peoria........ 71 / 51
Lincoln....... 71 / 52
Springfield... 71 / 53
Champaign..... 69 / 49
Bloomington... 70 / 53
Decatur....... 72 / 51
Danville...... 71 / 54
Galesburg..... 61 / 45
Charleston.... 71 / 52
Effingham..... 74 / 55

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Smith
CLIMATE...07



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