Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 201142
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
642 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Warmup should get going in earnest today, as a thermal ridge aloft
builds east into the Mississippi Valley. May see some mid 90s over
the southwest CWA, but 90-93 will prevail over the forecast area.

Tail end of a squall line over Minnesota early this morning
extends into far northeast Nebraska. This is just ahead of the
cold front, which will be moving east today but will run into the
building ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Redevelopment of this
line is expected late afternoon from Wisconsin into eastern Iowa,
and have backed off on the daytime rain chances. Most of the
synoptic and high-res models struggle to get this line any further
than the Illinois River, with the GFS remaining the only one to
bring any remnants further east overnight. Highest PoP`s remain in
the northwest corner of the CWA this evening, with slight chances
just east of the Illinois River.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Upper level ridge will become firmly entrenched over the central
and eastern U.S. the next several days, as Jose`s remnants and
later Maria form quite the bottleneck off the East Coast. 850 mb
temperatures expected to reach as high as about 21C at times
through the weekend. Have gone on the higher end of the model
guidance for high temperatures, mainly low-mid 90s through the
weekend. As we get into the weekend, chances for record highs will
increase, as they are mainly in the lower 90s by that point
(records in the mid 90s are common Thursday-Friday).

With the ridge in place, precipitation chances will be non
existent into early next week. By Tuesday, a cold front will be
approaching from the northwest, but the bulk of the rain from this
should be just beyond the current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Patchy MVFR fog has developed near CMI early this morning, but
conditions should quickly improve to VFR after sunrise. The next
concern will be increasing southerly winds as a cold front
approaches from the NW. Prevailing winds are expected to climb
into the 10-14kt range at all terminal sites by late morning and
continuing through the afternoon. A few gusts may approach 20 kts
toward PIA, but overall, gusts should not be a major concern.

Clouds will be minimal today, with mainly cirrus clouds expected.
Some mid cloud will approach PIA tonight, along with a few showers,
but no ceilings of significance to aviation should occur.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Record highs through the weekend:

Location         Wed       Thu       Fri       Sat       Sun
--------       -------   -------   -------   -------   -------
Bloomington    95/1908   94/1908   94/1930   92/1937   94/1933
Champaign      94/1948   95/1891   95/1891   94/1891   94/1891
Charleston     93/1955   95/1940   95/2005   93/2010   93/1933
Decatur        96/1940   95/1955   94/2005   92/2007   93/1933
Galesburg      91/1940   90/1940   92/1988   89/1937   90/2007
Olney         100/1896  100/1940   96/2010   94/1960   94/2010
Peoria         94/1940   93/1940   93/1930   92/1937   92/2007
Springfield    96/1931   96/1931   95/2005   93/2007   93/2007

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon
CLIMATE...Geelhart


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