Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 150203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
903 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 903 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

1006 mb low pressure center is currently over northeast IA moving
rapidly northeast, while a trailing cold front extends southward
into north central MO. Ahead of this front, several clusters or
lines of thunderstorms continue, and severe thunderstorm potential
continues especially for Schuyler to Mclean county northwestward
where a tornado watch remains in effect until 1 a.m. Instability,
while modest, will be slow to decrease until the front passes.
Strong shear, however, will be prevalent and continue the severe
weather threat for at least a few hours. The front is expected to
move rather slow until after midnight, then accelerate. Expecting
the front to remain west of the Illinois River through midnight,
then reach I-57 around 7 a.m., and move into Indiana around 10
a.m. Mild lows tonight, especially east of I-57 with the late
night frontal passage. Lows expected to range from 49 in Galesburg
to 64 in Lawrenceville. Windy conditions to develop behind the
front, with WNW winds 15-20 kts gusting to 25 to 30 kts. Main
updates this evening for short term PoPs due to smaller scale
convective/thunderstorm elements.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

An outflow boundary from convection over northern IL has slipped
toward toward a Bloomington to Rushville line at mid afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms were north of a Quincy to Bloomington
line and tracking ene. Partly to mostly sunny skies over central
and southern CWA has warmed temperatures into the mid 80s with
Lincoln setting a record high of 86F and Springfield up to 87F,
just a degree shy of the record high. Moist dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s across CWA. Precipitable water values ranged from
1.5-1.9 inches, highest over northern CWA, which is at the 99
percentile for mid October. This is supporting the heavy rains
of 1-3 inches over northern IL. SPC day1 outlook has slight risk
of severe storms along and north of I-72 late this afternoon and
into this evening, while enhanced risk of severe over the IL river
valley where 30% risk of damaging winds and 5% risk of tornadoes.
A 1008 mb surface low pressure over central IA and a 1007 mb low
pressure over sw KS will eject ne and pull the cold front se over
central IL overnight, and thru southeast IL by mid Sunday
morning. Lows tonight to range from around 50F nw of the IL river,
to 60-65F along the Wabash river. Windy on Sunday with WNW winds
15-25 mph and gusts 25-35 mph ushering in much cooler air. Highs
Sunday range from mid 50s from Peoria and Bloomington north to
the mid 60s by the Wabash river. Clouds to decrease from west to
east during Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The coldest night of the season expected Sunday night as skies
clear and winds lighten up with 1030 mb high pressure settling
into OK by dawn Monday and ridging into central IL. Lows in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. A few patches of frost possible late
Sunday night and early Monday morning in low lying areas north of
I-70. An upper level trof over IL on Monday along with surface
ridge to keep it cool with highs Monday in the lower 60s. Another
seasonably cool night Monday night with lows mostly in the lower

A nice stretch of fall weather expected Tuesday through Saturday
as upper level trof pulls away from IL as surface ridge shifts
into the southeast states and getting a return southerly flow.
Strong upper level ridge builds over the eastern US later in the
week to keep it dry and bring in warmer weather. Highs Tue in the
upper 60s, then in the lower 70s Wed and in the 70s Thu-Sat. An
approaching cold front from the nw could bring next chance of
convection next Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Multiple lines of showers and thunderstorms will cross central IL
this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches from the
west and passes through the area. First line of thunderstorms
looks to affect KPIA-KBMI area and could bring strong to severe
wind gusts. Overnight, a more extensive line of showers and
thunderstorms will bring more widespread thunderstorm activity.
Conditions generally VFR initially, with isolated IFR-MVFR
cigs/vsbys in thunderstorms. A larger period of MVFR cigs and
vsbys will be associated with the overnight line of showers and
thunderstorms, followed by several hours of MVFR cigs until
16-17Z. LLWS will also develop this evening as SW winds aloft
increase, continuing until 08-12Z after the cold front passes. Winds
initially E-SE north of a boundary over the area, including KPIA-
KBMI, while brisk southerly winds 10-20 kts affect areas to the
south. Winds will eventually shift to west and northwest after the
front passes through the area, with winds increasing to 15-20 kts
with gusts 25-30 kts.


Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Springfield`s low of 67F at 8 am this morning matches the record
warm low of 67F set on Oct 14, 1899. If temperature stays at or
above 67F through 1 am cdt tonight, it will tie a new record warm
low for Oct 14th. Lincoln rose to 86F at 2 pm and broke the record
high of 85F set in 1908. Springfield rose to 88F at 212 pm and
tied the record high set back in 1897.

Here are the Record Highs for Today Oct 14th...

Lincoln....... 86 in 2017
Havana........ 86 in 1989
Rantoul....... 86 in 1989
Galesburg..... 87 in 1947
Springfield... 88 in 1897 & 2017
Peoria........ 89 in 1897
Bloomington... 89 in 1899
Danville...... 89 in 1897
Rushville..... 89 in 1947
Effingham..... 90 in 1899
Minonk........ 90 in 1897
Champaign..... 91 in 1899
Sullivan...... 91 in 1899
Robinson...... 91 in 1899
Charleston.... 92 in 1899
Jacksonville.. 93 in 1897
Tuscola....... 93 in 1899
Decatur....... 94 in 1899




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