Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017
Deep upper level trough stretching from Minnesota back across the
CONUS into the desert SW this morning. Surface map also has an
elongated trough from weak low pressure center over southern WI.
Cold front across the center of the country back into the Southern
Plains. A weak pressure gradient with the actual trough has light
and somewhat variable winds over the region. Deep moisture in
forecast soundings needing little under southwesterly flow aloft
to lift into showers throughout the overnight. This will
continue...with the chances for precip increasing through the day
when peak heating gives a diurnal assist to the development of
more convectively driven showers and the occasional rumble of
thunder. Temperatures expected to be cool through the day, and
highs will remain in the 60s for a lot of Central IL...with the
southeast the only potential to see temps into the 70s. Overnight
the lingering showers and thunderstorms will also limit the drop
of temps behind the cold front passage, although the winds will
come around to more northerly.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Wednesday expected to be cloudy and cooler behind the cold
front...with low pops for scattered showers again as the upper low
is very slow to move out of the region. Models having a hard time
with the evolution of the low beyond midweek still...with the
soundings still almost saturated through Thursday morning...and
clouds seem more likely. However, should the low speed up a bit...
could clear earlier. Either way, models still pushing what looks
like a strong wave/MCS for Friday night...with Saturday being
another stormy day as a surface low tracks through the Midwest,
and a warm frontal passage during the day on Saturday. The
holiday weekend will be warmer...but stormy.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Plenty of moisture feeding into the region resulting in prolonged
precip for Central IL. VFR dominates with mostly southerly winds,
but variable through the overnight hours. Keeping thunder out of
the TAFs until the afternoon with another wave and diurnal
heating. Tempos in the immediate term for light showers...some
lack of consistency on cigs for tomorrow daytime...which may end
up with more extensive updates later this morning. Frontal passage
bringing winds around to more northerly this evening and after
sunset, llvl moisture with cyclonic flow aloft should keep some
MVFR conditions in place over ILX terminals.




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