Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
259 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

One MCS with its showers and thunderstorms has passed southeast of
our CWA by mid afternoon, mainly along and south of I-64. A new MCS
with showers/thunderstorms was over east KS, northwest MO, southeast
NE and far sw Iowa. This convection (some thunderstorms severe) is
developing ahead of 1002 mb low pressure in far southeast CO with
its frontal boundary extending northeast aross central KS and nw
Iowa. HRRR takes this convection ENE across MO toward the MS river
by 06Z/1 am and across the IL river valley and approaching highway
51 by 09Z/4 am as another shortwave ejects northeast across central
IL overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible into this
evening over CWA then increasing chances of showers/thunderstorms
from west to east during overnight. SPC day1 outlook continues a
marginal risk of severe storms over much of IL tonight while slight
chance is west of Quincy. Moist dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
this afternoon over central and southeast IL and most areas will see
lows in the upper 60s overnight.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The weather across central and southeast Illinois will remain
summer-like, with warm/humid conditions and periodic chances of
showers/thunderstorms. Daytime highs through the period are expected
to be in the 80s, with nighttime lows in the 60s.

The main forecast problem is trying to pin-point favored wet or dry
periods in this unsettled weather pattern. The best chances for
showers/storms over the next week appears to be Friday into early
Sunday as remnants of the upper-level low, currently centered over
the Four Corners region, eject toward the region. The severe weather
threat with this system does not appear very high. While diurnal
instability will be fairly high at times, shear profiles are not
expected to be impressive.

Behind this wave, a relative lull in the storm threat is expected
later Sunday into at least Monday. Then, another wave will boost
chances again Wednesday into Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

MCS with its showers and thunderstorms has shifted into southern
IL from I-64 south and into southeast Indiana southeast of Indy.
HRRR model keeps central IL dry through this evening and then
brings convection from northwest MO east into west central IL
after midnight tonight. Timed this next batch of showers and
thunderstorms into SPI by 08Z and to CMI by 11Z. Have VCTS with
prob30 group Fri morning with MVFR vsbys/ceilings possible. South
winds 8-14 kts and gusts to 20 kts this afternoon to diminish this
evening to 4-8 kts and range from 8-13 kts Thu morning.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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