Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 220435
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1135 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

Light southwest winds over northern portions of forecast area
keeping temperatures from dropping as much. Raised lows a few
degrees in this area. Otherwise, no major changes.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

High pressure centered over the Great Plains will continue moving
east-southeast tonight.  Expect any lingering stratocumulus to thin
out and finally dissipate over the Ozarks this evening.  Should have
a clear or mostly clear sky after the strato-cu dissipates.  With
the high settling down over the eastern Ozarks tonight wind should
become light and variable setting up excellent radiational cooling
conditions.  Chilliest readings will likely be over the eastern
Ozarks closest to the center of the high where lower 40s temps
should be widespread.  Might even see some upper 30s in the
valleys.  Mid and upper 40s that MOS is forecasting over the rest of
the area look reasonable since the wind will be turning around to
the west and coming up to around 5 to 8 mph before sunrise.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

Not much change to the going forecast for the long term.
Temperatures will moderate on Friday as the surface high moves east
of the region and southerly flow returns.  Expect near normal
temperatures in the mid 70s across the area.  GFS moves what looks
like a grid-scale feedback vortmax across the area Friday night
which seems to be what kicks out rain.  The NAM keeps the precip
west of our area focused on the low level jet.  Have followed the
NAM more closely since the GFS vortmax looks squirrely.
Reintroduced some low chance PoPs into parts of central Missouri on
Saturday...primarily to cover the potential remnants of Friday night
convection to the west moving into central MO that morning.  PoPs
for the rest of the area begin ramping up Saturday night as
southwest flow aloft becomes well established and deep moisture
returns to the area.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
likely from Saturday night through the end of the forecast period.
Best chances of rain will be over northern and western portions of
the area, but expect that pretty much every part of the CWFA will
see some precipitation by the middle of next week.  Temperatures at
or above normal still look likely into midweek in the deep southwest
flow.

Carney
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

Weak surface ridge to remain over region with southwest to west
winds to persist through most of forecast period before becoming
light and variable this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions to
persist with increasing high and mid clouds as next system moves
closer to area.

Specifics for KSTL:
Weak surface ridge to remain over region with southwest to west
winds to persist through most of forecast period before becoming
light and variable by 20z Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions to
persist with increasing high and mid clouds as next system moves
closer to area.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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