Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 301945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
245 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Getting isolated showers/storms this afternoon across parts of the
forecast area with diurnal heating and instability.  More
significant is the convection across southwest MO associated with an
MCV.  This convection will likely move into parts of central and
southeast MO late this afternoon and early this evening.  A few
storms may be strong to severe in central MO late this afternoon and
early this evening.  Although the convection should weaken in
intensity later this evening as the atmosphere stabilizes with
nocturnal cooling, some of this activity may continue to push
northeastward into much of our forecast area overnight.  Low
temperatures should be a little warmer than the previous night due
to increased cloud cover and a return to low level southerly winds.


.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Storm chances will be on the increase Tuesday as cold front moves
into northwestern MO by midday. Highs on Tuesday hard to pin down as
it will depend on cloud cover and precipitation. For now, they will
be a bit above normal in the low to mid 80s. Will see several rounds
of storms with best chances Tuesday night and Wednesday as front
moves through forecast area. Some decent instability and lift along
boundary, but it will be marginal especially over southeast MO and
southwestern IL. So SPC has a marginal risk over southeast half of
forecast area on Wednesday.

Rain to taper off on Thursday with drier weather through Friday as
weak ridging builds in. However, next system to approach region for
the weekend but timing hard to pin down, so kept slight chance pops
for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal through
the extended.


.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will develop this afternoon.
There should be isolated showers/storms late this afternoon and
early this evening, but for most sites the probability of
precipitation looks too low to include in the tafs. The one
exception may be COU where showers/storms moving into southwestern
MO associated with an upper level disturbance may move into COU
by evening or overnight. Mainly just mid-high level cloudiness
expected for tonight. Weak south-southeasterly surface winds can
be expected this afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east of the
area. Surface winds will become light this evening, then
strengthen on Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL: Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will develop
this afternoon. Could not rule out an isolated shower/storm late
this afternoon or early this evening, but it appears that the
better chance for convection will be Tuesday afternoon. For now
will keep the STL taf dry this afternoon and tonight, but include
VCTS Tuesday afternoon. Mainly just mid-high level cloudiness
tonight, then diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again late
Tuesday morning and afternoon. Southwest surface wind will become
more southeasterly this afternoon, then light this evening.
Southeasterly surface wind will strengthen to around 8 kts Tuesday


Saint Louis     66  85  67  81 /  20  30  50  70
Quincy          64  83  64  79 /  30  50  70  60
Columbia        63  81  63  78 /  30  50  70  60
Jefferson City  63  82  64  78 /  40  50  70  70
Salem           64  85  65  82 /  20  20  30  70
Farmington      62  81  63  80 /  20  30  40  70



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