Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 020133
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
833 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS DIMINISHING, SO MOST PLACES TO JUST SEE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN
NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO FIREUP, MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MO NEAR
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXACT TRACK OF COMPLEX OF STORMS HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT STILL FEEL
THAT BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MO. COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES, SO
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS EXPECTED AND KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING TIL 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, LOWS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ON THURSDAY, FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA AND
REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

THEN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO WILL SEE OFF AND ON CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MOST ACTIVE WX EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR REGION
THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOWERING CIGS AND
LINGERING SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
DOWN. AT LEAST MVFR CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY. SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
PREFER TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT BEFORE INCLUDING. OTHERWISE,
VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSRA WILL BECOME N-NE BEHIND COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-
     JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
     REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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