Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 070844

344 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2015

Main question for today will be temps.

With weak steering winds thru 600 mb, current cloud cover is
expected to slowly drift swd today. FG developing across srn
portions of the CWA is also expected to lift to form some cloud
cover this morning. With more cloud cover expected today, have
lower temps slightly compared to prev forecast. However, even
brief periods of sun shud allow temps to jump quickly. As for
tonight, with light winds, have trended cooler across srn portions
of the CWA, but kept a warmer trend across wrn and nrn areas where
winds will become sly with more cloud cover tonight ahead of the
approaching cdfnt.


.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2015

Focus quickly turns to precip chances associated with the fnt on
Thurs night and Fri. Latest mdl guidance has continued to slow
fropa, but mdl solns remain in good agreement.

Mdls continue to show the sfc ridge building ewd as the low
approaches. The region never really becomes open to the Gulf ahead
of the approaching cdfnt and low system. This shud limit the
amount of moisture available for storms. CAPE is also somewhat
limited ahead of the fnt. Due to the limited moisture and the
performance of the last fnt to move thru the region, have been
hesitant to forecast PoPs above 50 percent. Still believe SHRA
will develop with isod to widely sct TS, but coverage is not
currently anticipated to be great.

Large sfc ridge builds into the area, but sly flow is back by Sat
allowing warmer temps for most of the weekend and into next week.
Timing of the next fnt, sometime on Mon into Tues, is uncertain
due to differences among guidance. However, expect fropa to remain
dry due to even less moisture available than with the fropa on
Thurs and Fri.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2015

Stratus has become quite fragmented across Missouri and western
Illinois this evening yet there are still pockets of cigs from
2500-3000 ft floating across northeast and central MO. Some of
these MVFR cigs should impact KCOU and KUIN overnight and there
should be MVFR visibilities with fog as well. Otherwise some
patchy stratus and mid clouds will impact far eastern MO and
southwest Illinois overngiht with MVFR fog expected at KSUS and
KCPS. VFR conditions are expected across the entire area between
15-16z Wednesday with higher based stratocu.

Specifics for KSTL:

Patchy stratus and mid clouds will impact KSTL overnight but think VFR
conditions will prevail. Will need to monitor the potential for
some light fog - visibility dropping to 5sm or so - in the predawn
hours, but confidence is not very high. VFR conditions are
expected on Wednesday with higher based stratocu.



Saint Louis     77  62  85  61 /   0   0  10  50
Quincy          74  59  82  55 /   0   5  30  50
Columbia        75  58  83  56 /   0   5  10  50
Jefferson City  75  58  82  57 /   5   5  10  50
Salem           78  56  83  60 /   0   0   5  50
Farmington      75  56  81  58 /   5   0   5  40




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