Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 172324
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
624 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Surface low/MCV continues to make very slow progress to the east
southeast away from forecast area. Will still see some lingering
light showers/sprinkles for far eastern and southeastern portions
of forecast area this evening. Then begin to dry out with clouds
scattering out a bit. Lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Another issue tonight could be fog development. Will add mention
of patchy fog after potential issue tonight could be fog...as
boundary layer will remain very moist. Due to uncertainty in cloud
cover overnight tonight...elected not add fog to forecast for now.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

Monday will remain dry but will see plenty of cu developing so
temperatures will warm up but not as much as previously thought.
Lowered highs a degree or two. Highs will be in the mid upper 80s.

Next shortwave/cold front to move through region beginning Monday
night. So kept chance pops going through Tuesday. Then system to
stall out over southern portions of forecast area before returning
north as a warm front beginning Tuesday night. Will see rain chances
across most of area Tuesday night, then lift northward out of area
by Thursday, though kept low chance pops going for northern portions
of forecast area through Friday night. During this period, will see
a warming trend, but did lower highs a tad on Tuesday due to warm
front position as well as clouds and precipitation, in the mid 80s
to low 90s. Then temps warm up into the 90s everywhere for the last
half of the work week and into the first part of the weekend. With
frontal boundary lingering just north of forecast area for the
weekend, could see some activity in the northern portions of
forecast area, but hard to pin down at this time.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

The lowest levels of the atmosphere are very moist, and scattered
light drizzle/rain was ongoing across much of the area at TAF
issuance. This means that any breaks in the existing IFR to MVFR
cloud deck will be short-lived early this evening. Fog and stratus
should quickly redevelop with nocturnal cooling. Ceilings are
expected to fall to IFR overnight followed by a gradual
improvement tomorrow morning and afternoon due to both diurnal
mixing and the departure of the slow-moving low pressure system
which was responsible for the extensive cloud cover across the
region.

Kanofsky

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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