Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 050724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
224 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Area will be under nly flow within the highly amplified flow today.
The upper low will continue to sink swd today with a vort max
spreading clouds across the ern portions of the CWA today. A
separate s/w currently dropping swd into MN region is expected to
bring high clouds to portions of central MO late this morning into
the early afternoon hours. The ongoing precip associated with this
s/w is expected to dissipate over IA before reaching the CWA. Have
therefore gone with a dry forecast today.

Temps will be very similar to yesterday with little change in
airmass. However, have generally trended slightly warmer as less
cloud cover is expected today.


.LONG TERM...  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

Surface ridge to remain over region through Friday. So expect dry
conditions and a quick warm up by Friday. Lows tonight will be in
the 40s with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Forecast area to remain dry Friday night, but next weather system
will approach region with frontal boundary sinking south on
Saturday. Low level moisture on the increase, decent convergence
along boundary, and decent CAPES. Even though there is some
capping, believe scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up
along and north of boundary, especially during the afternoon hours
on Saturday.

With upper level ridge over midwest and digging upper level trof
over western US, the chances of storms to persist through rest of
forecast period as frontal boundary wavers back and forth with a
series of shortwaves sliding through area. So it will not be a
continuous rain event through next week, but it will be an active

The warmest day still looks to be Saturday with highs in the mid 70s
to mid 80s, but remain a bit above normal through next Wednesday.


.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

A low pressure system was over the OH Valley region, with surface
ridging over the Plains. A weak w-nw surface wind will continue
late tonight, then strengthen again Thursday morning, although
the wind will not be as strong as today as the surface ridge
shifts east-southeastward into MO. Mid level cloudiness on the
backside of the upper level low should advect southeast of the St
Louis metro area by 06Z Thursday. There may be scattered diurnal
cumulus clouds again late Thursday morning and afternoon, mainly
in the St Louis metro area. These clouds will dissipate early
Thursday evening. The surface wind will become light Thursday
evening with the surface high just w-sw of the taf sites.

Specifics for KSTL: The mid level cloudiness around 9000 feet
should advect southeast of STL by 06Z Thursday.  There may be
scattered diurnal cumulus clouds again late Thursday morning and
afternoon. Light w-nw surface wind late tonight will increase to
around 11-12 kts late Thursday morning. The surface wind will
become light Thursday evening with the clouds dissipating due to
the loss of daytime heating.


Saint Louis     68  48  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          67  47  80  58 /   0   0   0   5
Columbia        71  47  80  57 /   0   0   0   5
Jefferson City  72  46  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           64  46  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      66  43  78  55 /   0   0   0   0



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