Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KLSX 111734

1234 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Expect mainly sunny skies today as some high clouds move through
the area this morning as a shortwave ridge pushes to the south of
Missouri and Illinois. South to southwest winds will pick up this
afternoon as the surface gradient increases ahead of a cold front
that is approaching the area from the northwest. Forecast sounding
favor the warmer GFS MOS guidance today.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Still expect a cold front to pass through the area late tonight
and early Monday. Will keep the forecast dry as both the NAM and
GFS continue to show the atmosphere dry through a deep layer.
There is also little in the way of ascent associated with the
upper trough and it is behind the cold front. Will keep with the
dry forecast through next weekend as both the GFS and ECMWF are
still showing dry west-northwesterly upper flow setting up behind
the upper trough during the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe.
Both models are showing a weak trough and attendant cold front
moving through the area Thursday night or Friday before they show
different solutions next weekend. Will continue with a dry
forecast because of this uncertainty.

Monday will be relatively warm with 850mb temperatures in the
10-15C range before they fall back down to around 10C for
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures by next weekend may only be
around 5C with surface temperatures in the 60s.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Winds will remain out of the south to southwest until a cold front
moves through the region after 12/10z. BUFKIT profiles show
strong (>40kts) southwest winds aloft after 12/03z and ahead of
the approaching front, therefore LLWS has been introduced for
this set of TAFs. The LLWS threat may be mitigated if the surface
winds overnight end up being stronger than currently forecast.
There is little moisture available therefore no precipitation is
expected with fropa. BUFKIT profiles show that 20-30kt wind gusts
should mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon behind the





WFO LSX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.