Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 301956
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
256 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Persistent longwave trough is still forecast to dominate the
weather pattern through the rest of the work week and into this
weekend. Complex of light/moderate rain should stay mainly south
of the area through Thursday with far southern sections of the
CWFA possibly being either skirted by the rain shield or isolated
-shra/-tsra that develops with diurnal instability Thursday
afternoon. Slight chance of showers or storms will again be
diurnally driven on Friday/Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday at
least looks dry with slowly moderating temperatures to near normal
by Tuesday. Next best chance of any widepsread sort of rain looks
to be next Wednesday/Thursday as flow aloft becomes more zonal and
a frontal boundary slowly progresses through the region.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     64  86  66  85 /  10  10   5  20
Quincy          58  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  20
Columbia        59  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Jefferson City  60  84  61  83 /  10  10   5  20
Salem           58  83  62  83 /  10  10   5  20
Farmington      60  78  59  81 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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