Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 200843

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
343 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

As individual storms move northward this morning MCS continues to
track east, exiting forecast area by midday. Then will see
redevelopment as surface low lifts northward through Iowa, dragging
cold front through forecast area late this afternoon/evening. Storms
to finally taper off after midnight tonight.

As for temperatures today, since we are starting out cooler than
originally forecast, in the upper 40s to mid 60s, went close to
guidance or even a degree or two lower for highs due to cloud cover
and precipitation. Only fly in ointment is as surface low lifts
northward today, it will lift stalled warm front back north through
region, so if clouds thin out, even a little, temps could be warmer
than we are forecasting. For now have highs in the 70 to 80 degree
range. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

(Sunday through Monday)

Period begins with the cdfnt well east of the CWA with the sfc low
in central WI and the sfc ridge building into the region.

Behind the fnt, a much cooler sfc ridge will build into the region
for Sun. This ridge will keep the area dry with temps struggling to
reach the 70s. While deeper mixing is still expected, have trended
slightly cooler on Sun due to expected cool 850 mb temps. Mon shud be
slightly warmer with 850mb trof moving ewd allowing slightly warmer
temps into the region. However, did not go too warm with clouds
expected to spread into the area and a leading s/w bringing precip
to the area.

(Tuesday through Friday)

Mdls begin the period in fairly good agreement. By the middle of
next week, differences appear, tho mainly timing issues. After the
leading s/w mentioned above pulls ewd out of the region, a fast
moving clipper system is expected to move into the area.

With the region under persistent NW flow and a strong sfc ridge
likely settling south of the region, expect temps to be well below
seasonal avg for much of next week.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Main TAF concern will be convective trends overnight into
Saturday. We continue to track a convective line across
southwestern MO. This line will attempt to lift east/northeast
overnight, but will likely weaken as it lifts north of a front
which has sunk south of all terminals. Showers and storms will be
likely at all terminals overnight, but reductions to IFR will
likely be fairly brief. Outside of convection, an IFR or low-end
MVFR deck has built into the terminals. This deck is ragged and
locally augmented by rainfall, but expect it to slowly lift north
out of all terminals through the early to mid morning hours as
the warm front lifts northward. After a brief lull in the
convective activity later this morning, expect additional
thunderstorms to develop along the synoptic cold front this

Main TAF concern will be convective trends. Line of storms across
southwestern MO will lift northward overnight, although likely
weakening as it lifts north of a front that lies across south-
central MO. These showers/storms will bring reductions in vsbys,
perhaps to IFR at times. Outside of convection, an IFR/low-end
MVFR deck has built in. This deck should hold firm until the
convection moves in around 09Z, before lifting through Saturday
morning. Another round of showers/storms will then develop along
the synoptic cold front Saturday afternoon.



Saint Louis     78  55  70  52 /  70  50   5   5
Quincy          73  50  64  47 /  50  20   5   5
Columbia        72  49  67  48 /  50  10   5   5
Jefferson City  73  50  69  49 /  60  10   5   5
Salem           80  58  70  50 /  80  60   5   5
Farmington      76  55  71  48 /  80  50   5   5




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