Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 131133

633 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2015

Forecast area to remain in cyclonic flow of wound up system over
Great Lakes region today. So winds to pickup from the northwest to
north once again. Not as strong as yesterday, but at least between
10 and 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. As for temperatures,
cooler air to filter in despite the sunshine, so highs will only be
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Only fly in ointment is strato cu deck
that is sliding southeast through Illinois on back side of system as
well as some cirrus on northwest flow. This could keep temperatures
a tad cooler.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2015

Weak secondary cold front to move through tonight, but little or no
moisture to work with, so just a wind shift line. Otherwise, clear
with temperatures in the 40s.

By Wednesday, surface ridge to build in with temperatures beginning
a brief moderation before the next system moves through on northwest
flow. Highs by Thursday will be in the 70s.

Then during the day on Thursday, frontal boundary to slide southeast
through region. Like past systems lately, not a lot of moisture to
work with, so just keeping slight chance pops for Thursday night.

Coldest air of the season so far to move into the region for the
last part of the work week and into the weekend. Highs by Saturday
and Sunday will be below normal, in the mid 50s to low 60s. With
this colder air comes the chance for frost in the outlying areas
Saturday morning, as well as Sunday morning. Then by Monday, surface
ridge begins to move off to the east allowing temperatures to begin
warming up once again.



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2015

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the period. Low level
wind shear is still possible early in the period at KSUS as 500ft
winds will be close to 30KTS while surface winds are only 5 knots
early on. Winds will pick up by 14-15Z into the 10-15KT range with
higher gusts the rest of the day from the northwest. Then high
pressure will settle into the area this evening with winds falling
to 7kts or less.

Specifics for KSTL: Dry and VFR conditions expected through the
period with northwest winds.



Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2015

Will see heightened fire danger once again today, with relative
humidities dropping to between 20 and 30 percent across the forecast
area. Also, winds to pickup from the northwest to north but a bit
less than yesterday, maybe between 8 to 12 mph at the 20ft level
with higher gusts. As for fuel moisture, most RAWS sites remain
below 10 percent as of 08z Tuesday and should stay that way today.





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