Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 302045

245 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

Upper level low over Nebraska will move northeastward into northwest
IA later tonight with its associated surface low over northeast
Nebraska moving into southwest Minnesota.  The surface low will drag
an occluded front eastward through our forecast area this evening.
The best chance of measurable rain should occur across west central
IL with mainly just a little light rain or intermittent drizzle
elsewhere, mainly this evening.  The rain and drizzle will finally
come to an end late tonight as the dry slot moves northeastward into
the area south of the upper level low, along with low level drying
behind the occluded front.  Should be some clearing late tonight
into central MO.  Low temperatures tonight will be a little colder
than the previous night across northeast and central MO and west
central IL as lower surface dew points advect southeastward into
this area.


.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

Clouds are expected to clear from most areas during early Tuesday
morning, and from all areas by late morning.  With plenty of
sunshine in its wake, a breezy WSW surface flow which should
promote relatively deep mixing for this time of year, and only
a weak push of cooler air behind passage of the occluded front
the previous night, should see a robust temp recovery for areas near
and south of I-70.  Started with the highest MOS values for daytime
max temps, and adjusted another deg or two higher for areas near
I-70 and south.

An actual cold front will move thru Tuesday night and should at
least bring with it increasing clouds, including a field of low
clouds.  Of perhaps more interest is in addition there will be a
strong upper level disturbance rotating around the southern
periphery of the still wound-up storm system to our north that will
track thru much of our northern CWA later Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning.  While the column will be rather dry overall,
the forcing/upper level support provided by this feature along with
cyclonic flow at the low levels and the likely presence of a field
of low clouds should at least provide for the potential of a seeder-
feeder setup and the threat for falling pcpn from this.  While
keeping PoPs for measurable pcpn low at this time, have introduced
the mention of pcpn into the forecast beginning late Tuesday evening
thru late Wednesday morning.  The atmosphere will be cold enough for
any pcpn to fall as snow--the only mention of snow in this forecast
package.  For now have drawn the southern boundary of the flurries
mention to just north of a Mexico, MO to Salem, IL line.

Otherwise, after one day of below average temps on Wednesday
following passage of the cold front Tuesday night, we should then
see an extended period of above average temps Thursday thru early
next week with a synoptic pattern that keeps the cold air locked
up well to the north.  Friday and Saturday look especially favorable
for well above average temps, where some locales may see low 60s.

On a side note during this period, the models seem to have come into
better agreement on handling of the development of a storm system
for the southeastern CONUS on Thursday, and largely making it a
non-issue for our area.

Another strong Pacific storm system still looks set to become cutoff
and affect our area for early next week, with slower timing
preferred amongst the models considering a jet stream ridge will be
also developing over the central CONUS.  Should hold off until after
the weekend, and we have it impacting our area instead on Monday.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

Gradual improvement in vsbys is expected this afternoon as fog
slowly dissipates with little change in cloud ceiling height,
remaining below 1000 feet. Intermittent drizzle can be expected
this afternoon and tonight, with a band of light rain moving
through the area this afternoon and this evening along an occluded
front which will sweep eastward through the taf sites. E-sely
surface wind will veer around to a due sely direction this
afternoon, then to a w-swly direction late this evening and
overnight after the passage of the front. Drier air advecting into
the region behind the front will lead to an improvement to VFR
conditions late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Should see some improvement in the visibility
this afternoon, but little if any improvement in the cloud
ceiling height, remaining below 1000 feet. A band of light rain
will move through STL late this afternoon and early this evening,
otherwise mainly just periods of drizzle this afternoon and
tonight from the low level stratus deck. Should finally see
improvement to VFR conditions around 12Z Tuesday morning. The ely
surface wind will veer around to a sely direction this afternoon,
then to a w-swly direction late tonight.





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