Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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053
FXUS63 KLSX 230524
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1124 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Surface ridge overhead to move off to the southeast tonight as a
weak cold front approaches region. Despite increasing mid and high
clouds, temps will still drop into the 20s overnight with the
coldest temperatures over the eastern Ozarks.

By daybreak on Thanksgiving, weak cold front to wash out, so do not
expect any precipitation for the Thanksgiving holiday. Winds will
pickup a bit from the south to southwest, eventually veering to the
west by afternoon. This combined with sunny skies will allow
temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 50s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A dry weak cold front will push through the region with breezy
conditions likely to occur during frontal passage on Friday. A
 of 850mb temperatures and breezy southwest winds will allow
temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normals
for November. A large area of high pressure will drop south out of
the northern Plains on Saturday morning. The high pressure will
bring drier air into the region this weekend.

High pressure will push east of the region by Sunday afternoon
allowing for winds to switch from northwest to southwest behind
the ridge. An upper trough over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes region will push another weak cold front through the region
on Wednesday. The GFS has been better in run to run consistency as
of late and has the front clear of the region. The ECMWF also has
the same weak front to the west of the region during the same
time frame on Wednesday. I elected to keep a chance of scattered
showers over parts of southeastern Missouri and southwestern
Illinois due to the timing issues displayed in model solutions.

Kelly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A cold front
currently over the central Plains will move southeast tonight
into tomorrow. This front will largely wash out by the time it
reaches TAF sites, but it`s influence will result in veering
winds through the period from southerly tonight to westerly by
Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, no flight restrictions expected
with just passing mid/high clouds tonight into Thursday morning,
then mostly clear skies by Thursday afternoon.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR conditions to prevail through the period. A cold front
currently over the central Plains will move southeast tonight into
tomorrow. This front will largely wash out by the time it reaches
STL, but it`s influence will result in veering winds through the
period from southerly tonight to westerly by Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, no flight restrictions expected with just passing
mid/high clouds tonight into Thursday morning, then mostly clear
skies by Thursday afternoon.

KD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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