Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 270235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
835 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 833 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

Scattered showers developing and streaming northeast from the
Ozarks this evening. Have adjusted POPs based on latest radar
trends. Some indication by the new NAM that rain will come to an
end earlier tomorrow than is currently forecast. Will wait to see
the GFS and if trend is same - may speed up departure of rain
behind the front.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

There is relatively good agreement in the global models in that a
positively tilted mean trough will stay established through at
least the first half of next week from central Canada into the
western CONUS. This will keep a relatively fast zonal flow over
MO/IL through most of the period. A large area of surface high
pressure will move under the zonal flow with no real notable
shortwaves troughs that would offer any precipitation chances at
least through Thursday. Model discrepancies show up by Friday as
the operational GFS is faster than it`s own ensemble mean in
ejecting the main upper low out of the southwest toward the
Midwest. While this is faster than the rest of the models, even
the ECMWF is showing precipitation developing over the area in a
broad warm air advection regime ahead of it bringing the upper low
through the area on Saturday. So with this said will go ahead and
introduce snow with some rain to the forecast on Friday.

Cold front will pass through the area on Monday and temperatures
will fall below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday before returning to
near normal for the start of a new year late in the week.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014
Wave development along a cold front across far western Missouri
has slowed its eastward movement, so think MVFR cigs will be
delayed for several hours, reaching KCOU around 06Z and KSTL
around 09Z. There may be a few scattered very light showers or
sprinkles before the surface cold front passes. The front will reach
KCOU around 12Z and KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings will continue for
several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon.


Specifics for KSTL: VFR cigs will continue through at least 06Z,
with MVFR cigs reaching KSTL around 09Z. There may be a few
scattered very light showers or sprinkles before the surface cold
front passes. The front will reach KSTL by 16Z. MVFR ceilings
will continue for several hours after frontal passage, but MVFR
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR during the afternoon. MVFR
cigs should last well into Saturday evening.

Browning (WFO LSX)/MAB (EAX CWSU)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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