Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 100836

336 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

Mid-high clouds associated with weak upper trough currently
moving southeastward across the Midwest will push out of the area
by mid-morning. Low clouds have also been showing a clearing trend
the past few hours. Should be a dry day as an upper ridge begins
to move into the area. Temperatures this afternoon will climb
close to 70 with the return of sunshine and winds turning out of
the southwest as the surface high moves east of the area.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2015

The upper ridge will move across the area tonight and Sunday
providing dry weather to the area. Temperatures on Sunday will
climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s as 850mb temperatures climb
into the 10-15C range. Still expect a dry cold frontal passage on
Sunday night as the atmosphere will remain dry through a deep
layer and what ascent there will be will be behind the front
associated with the upper trough moving across the upper Midwest.

Kept with a dry forecast for the rest of next week as both the GFS
and ECMWF are showing dry northwesterly upper flow setting up
behind the passage of the cold front early next week. Both models
do not depict any QPF during this period. 850mb temperatures remain
near 10C which favors surface values near or just above mid
October normals.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Surface ridge extending from northern IL southwest through
northern MO to the TX Panhandle will continue to shift
southeastward. The low level cloud cover around 3000-4000 feet in
height will continue to slowly clear out from northwest to
southeast late tonight with increasing subsidence. These clouds
will clear out of the St Louis metro area around 07-09Z late
tonight. There will likely be some radiation fog in COU late
tonight/early Saturday morning, and steam fog in the river valleys
due to cold air over the warmer river water which will impact SUS
and CPS late tonight/early Saturday morning. The light surface
wind will become s-swly in UIN and COU by Saturday afternoon as
the surface ridge shifts southeast of this area.

Specifics for KSTL: The low level cloud ceiling around 3500 feet
in height will clear out around 07-09Z late tonight with the
clearing line slowly advancing from the northwest. The nly
surface wind will continue to diminish and become light late





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