Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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213
FXUS63 KLSX 171958
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
258 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

With surface ridge to our east and next system to our northwest,
region to remain in southerly flow through Wednesday. So clear skies
and south winds to persist. Winds will diminish tonight but remain
up enough to keep temperatures a bit warmer than this morning. Will
have lows ranging from upper 30s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid
to upper 40s over the STL metro area and portions of central/
northeast MO and west central IL.

On Wednesday, will see highs between 5 and 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year, in the low to mid 70s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Model solns are in fairly good agreement thru Sat morning. An
approaching weak cdfnt will attempt to drop into the area Thurs
morning. However, this fnt is currently expected to remain north of
the CWA. Stronger sly flow returns to the area on Fri as the upper
pattern becomes more amplified with ridging over the CWA. Thru this
period, have trended twd the warmer guidance with mostly clear skies
and sly flow.

Another approaching cdfnt will bring a chance for storms this
weekend. Uncertainty with system is a little higher with some
differences among mdl solns. A leading s/w may help spread showers
across wrn portions of the CWA as early as Sat morning. The ECMWF is
a much slower outlier compared to the GFS/GEM. While the GEFS mean
initially agrees better with the ECMWF, even this soln is faster by
Sat evening. Have generally trended twd a GFS/GEM soln, but have
kept some PoPs to account for the slower ECMWF soln. The main
difference is for Sun afternoon and into the evening where the ECMWF
keeps precip lingering, although, the GEM wud suggest precip
lingering a little longer as well.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Forecast area to remain in southerly flow with surface ridge to
our east and next system to our west. So VFR conditions with
southwest winds, becoming light and southerly by sunset.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
Forecast area to remain in southerly flow with surface ridge to
our east and next system to our west. So VFR conditions with
southwest winds, becoming light and southerly by sunset.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     48  75  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          46  73  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        45  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  45  75  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           44  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      38  73  50  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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