Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 301650

1050 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

Scattered light rain continues to lift northward across forecast
area early this morning, mainly along and north of I70. In the
meantime, as upper level low over central Rockies begins to lift
northeastward today will see surface low develop over northeastern
Kansas and track to the north into western Iowa. Precipitation will
be on the increase, with best chances along and north of I70.
Rainfall amounts will be up to a third of an inch, with the highest
amounts over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.
Otherwise, cloudy conditions to persist with high temperatures only
in the 40s.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

By tonight, system will be exiting region with rain tapering off
from west to east. Lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Then on
Tuesday clouds to begin to clear out with gusty southwest winds
across the region. Highs will be very dependent on how much the
clouds clear out. For now have highs in the low 40s far north to
the low 50s from St. Louis and areas to the south and east.

Tuesday night and Wednesday will see increasing clouds as secondary
shortwave rotates around upper level system over the Great Lakes
region, but remain dry. Colder air to filter in with this shortwave
with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s Tuesday night and highs on
Wednesday in the 40s.

On Thursday, surface ridge to build in with temperatures moderating
through the rest of the work week and into next weekend. By
Saturday, highs will be in the low to mid 50s. A decent upper level
shortwave will slide through on Friday, but moisture will be limited
so no precipitation expected with it.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM CST Mon Nov 30 2015

Gradual improvement in vsbys is expected this afternoon as fog
slowly dissipates with little change in cloud ceiling height,
remaining below 1000 feet. Intermittent drizzle can be expected
this afternoon and tonight, with a band of light rain moving
through the area this afternoon and this evening along an occluded
front which will sweep eastward through the taf sites. E-sely
surface wind will veer around to a due sely direction this
afternoon, then to a w-swly direction late this evening and
overnight after the passage of the front. Drier air advecting into
the region behind the front will lead to an improvement to VFR
conditions late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: Should see some improvement in the visibility
this afternoon, but little if any improvement in the cloud
ceiling height, remaining below 1000 feet. A band of light rain
will move through STL late this afternoon and early this evening,
otherwise mainly just periods of drizzle this afternoon and
tonight from the low level stratus deck. Should finally see
improvement to VFR conditions around 12Z Tuesday morning. The ely
surface wind will veer around to a sely direction this afternoon,
then to a w-swly direction late tonight.





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