Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 021750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SAME BASIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LARGE
SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS.  A SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT STILL STRETCHES FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF IS
RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
IOWA AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THESE STORMS WON`T MAKE IT INTO OUR CWFA THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER WARM HUMID DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY`S...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER.  SIGNALS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE WEAKER IN THE
GUIDANCE THAN THEY WERE FOR YESTERDAY, SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING
THIS MORNING.  THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED AT ALL IF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO BEGIN SHIFTING THE PATTERN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BY BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
BRINGING US A CHANCE OF RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY.

CARNEY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS, S-SW SURFACE WINDS, AND DRY WX ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THRU MUCH OF THE VALID PERIOD. LEFT THE
MVFR VSBYS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN PLACE AT ALL SITES BUT KSTL
FOR THIS PACKAGE TO BE RE-EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE WHEN
OBSERVATIONAL DATA COMES IN FOR SUCH PARAMETERS AS CROSSOVER TEMPS
AND A BETTER HANDLE ON CLOUD COVER IS ATTAINED.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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