Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLSX 292311
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
611 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Focus continues to low system over the OH Valley region.

This low will continue to linger in the area and actually move west
slightly thru Fri. Clouds will continue to spread across the area
tonight thru Fri with showers mainly east of the MS River. Latest
guidance continues to suggest a threat for thunder across far ern
portions of the CWA on Fri afternoon and have kept a slight chance
mention.

The extensive cloud cover will help to keep temps relatively warm
tonight and cool on Fri and have trended temps accordingly.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Models continue to have upper level low sit and spin over Ohio
Valley through first part of weekend, then begin to lift out to the
northeast Saturday night. So will have lingering precipitation
chances Friday night and Saturday in active cyclonic flow under
mostly cloudy skies.

Otherwise, temperatures to begin moderating for the last half of the
weekend and into early next week with highs in the mid to upper 70s,
maybe even low 80s for portions of the area by next Wednesday. In
the meantime, next system to approach the region by Wednesday, a bit
slower than previously forecast, so kept Tuesday night dry for
everyone now and lowered pops a bit on Wednesday. Best chances of
rain will be Wednesday night and Thursday as strong cold front moves
through.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Nearly stationary upper level low and surface troughing was over
KY with an upper level ridge and surface ridging over the Plains.
Low level clouds along with a few light showers continue to rotate
through eastern MO and IL on the backside of the low. The MOS
guidance was consistent in lowering the cloud ceiling down to
around 1000 feet late tonight. The cloud ceilng should gradually
rise late Friday morning and afternoon, but not likely above
MVFR. More significant showers should remain east of the taf
sites tonight, with scattered showers for UIN and the St Louis
metro area Friday afternoon. N-nwly surface winds will continue
through the period.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Nearly stationary upper level low and surface
troughing was over KY with an upper level ridge and surface
ridging over the Plains. Low level clouds along with a few light
showers continue to rotate through eastern MO and IL on the
backside of the low. The MOS guidance was consistent in lowering
the cloud ceiling down to around 1000 feet late tonight. The cloud
ceilng should gradually rise late Friday morning and afternoon,
but not likely above MVFR. More significant showers should remain
east of the taf sites tonight, with scattered showers for STL Friday
afternoon. N-nwly surface winds will continue through the period.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     57  69  58  71 /  20  60  20  20
Quincy          54  67  58  69 /  10  30  30  30
Columbia        53  68  57  71 /  10  10  10  20
Jefferson City  53  68  57  71 /  10  10  10  20
Salem           54  67  54  70 /  40  60  40  20
Farmington      53  65  55  70 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.