Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 222040
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

Upper level ridge is amplifying over the Mid-Mississippi Valley as
the trof over the western CONUS deepens.  Some of the last vestiges
of the Plains convection may make it into the area during the
evening, but the air overhead is quite dry and the upper ridge
should be providing some decent subsidence.  Expect little more than
a light shower or sprinkles if any of the precip actually makes it.
Otherwise, it should be a quiet night.  Lows should be much warmer
than this morning`s with increasing mid and high clouds and light
south-southeast flow.  MAV/MET numbers are within 1-2 degrees of
each other, and I see no reason to deviate at this time.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

Upper level ridge continues to amplify through Saturday which should
keep a damper on convection across our area.  Main threat for rain
should stay over the Plains into western Missouri.  The ridge starts
translating east, putting the Mississippi Valley in deep southwest
flow Saturday night.  This will gradually increase our rain chances
as shortwaves ripple by.  Looks like several waves of showers and
thunderstorms will move through the area late Saturday night through
Monday.  Potential for heaviest rain still looks to be across
central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois.  Medium
range guidance is in pretty good agreement that the primary
shortwave will open up and be pulled northeast late Monday, but a
secondary wave will move across the Great plains Monday night into
Tuesday.  While the chance for persistent rain will decrease as the
primary wave moves northeast, the secondary wave will likely produce
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves across the
area Tuesday into Wednesday.  The remainder of the week continues to
look warm with a chance of thunderstorms as we sit in southwest flow
aloft.  Temperatures look to be as much as 10 degrees above normal
in the mid 80s.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri May 22 2015

VFR conditions expected as high and mid level clouds increase.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected as high and mid level clouds increase.

CVKING

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     61  80  64  80 /  10  10  20  60
Quincy          57  76  60  76 /  10  10  50  70
Columbia        56  75  61  76 /  20  30  60  80
Jefferson City  55  76  62  77 /  20  20  60  80
Salem           58  78  60  81 /   5   5  10  40
Farmington      53  78  60  78 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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