Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 211750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

A vort max was located over northern NV early this morning. This
system is forecast to lift northeastwards today, then move through
the northern plains and into southern Canada tonight and
tomorrow. Even though the vort max itself will be located well
north of MO/IL, it will still drag a weak cold front into the
region tomorrow night and Thursday, bringing a chance of rain
showers to parts of the area. Some models do show a few hundred
J/kg of CAPE farther west across western MO, but instability looks
much more limited over central and northeastern MO.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Model solutions depict a large ridge of high pressure building
across the middle of the country from Friday through Sunday. High
temperatures could warm to as much as 5-15 degrees above average
during this time if H85 temperatures of 10-16 deg C are realized.
Another low pressure system could bring a chance of rain to the
area on Monday or early next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will prevail with river valley fog
possible late tonight and Wednesday morning. Wind will gradually
veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast by
Wednesday afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

Surface ridge centered north of Lake Superior extending south
through the Mississippi Valley will drift south-southeast through
Wednesday. VFR conditions will continue to prevail. Wind will
gradually veer from the north-northeast to to the east-southeast
by Wednesday afternoon.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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