000
FXUS63 KLSX 072130
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
330 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

Warm advection ahead of a mid-upper level trof currently over the
Rockies will continue tonight.  Still seeing a chance of
precipitation tonight...mainly after midnight over northern sections
of the CWFA and spreading down into parts of central Missouri before
sunrise.  Forcing is pretty weak though and MOS pops are quite low,
so am only keeping chance/slight chance pops for tonight.  Thermal
profiles still look too warm for snow across the northern portion of
the CWFA, so have reintroduced a sleet/freezing rain mix.  Not even
sure if anything will actually fall, so accumulations will not be
mentioned at this time.  Temperatures will be tricky as the cold
front which is currently over Iowa moves across the area.  It`s
likely that northern sections of the CWFA will see falling
temperatures this evening after FROPA while southern zones may
steady out early and possibly remain nearly steady for much of the
night.  Stuck pretty close to MOS for lows which puts northern zones
near or just below freezing and keeps the rest of the area above
freezing.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

(Saturday - Saturday Night)

The cold front will move slowly south Saturday morning, but
temperatures should rebound a bit...expecting highs well above
freezing across the entire area.  Precipitation now looks likely
during the afternoon primarily along and south of the I-70 corridor
as the shortwave moves overhead.  Low level temperatures indicate
that the majority of the precip should be rain, but cold advection
behind the front, and falling dewpoints aloft will allow for the
possibility of some snow primarily Saturday night.  Cold advection
continues Saturday night with temps falling back into the 20s.

(Sunday - Tuesday)

Warming trend still looks on track for Sunday into the first part of
the work week.  Weather should be tranquil with relatively dry
northwest flow aloft and zonal flow in the low levels.  Surface flow
from the southwest will bring warmer air from the southern Plains
back into the Mid-Mississippi Valley and temperatures are expected
to be around normal on Sunday in the low 50s, and then warmer then
normal in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Monday and Tuesday.

(Wednesday - Friday)

Primary concern in this period is a longwave trof which is forecast
to dig across the Central U.S. developing a surface low over the
eastern Plains or Mid-Mississippi Valley.  Current indications are
that the majority of the precip will fall as rain, but as
temperatures fall late Wednesday/Wednesday night the rain could
change to snow before ending.  Thursday and Friday look tranquil,
with temperatures near or slightly below normal.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1036 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2014

S-swly surface winds this aftn along with mid-high level clouds.
A cold front extending from nwrn WI sw through sern Nebraska and
nrn KS will move sewd through the taf sites tonight. The front
will move through UIN around 00z Saturday and through the St Louis
metro area around 06z Saturday. The surface wind will veer around
to a n-nwly direction after fropa. Post frontal MVFR cigs will
advect into the taf sites late tgt/early Saturday morning. There
will also be some light rain/snow in UIN and COU late tgt and
Saturday mrng, and light rain in the St Louis metro area Saturday
mrng.

Specifics for KSTL: S-swly surface winds along with mid-high level
clouds this aftn and this evng. A cold front will drop sewd
through STL around 06z Saturday with the surface wind veering
around to a n-nwly direction after fropa. Post frontal MVFR clouds
will move into STL around 12z Saturday. There may be some light
rain Saturday mrng, but the better chance of rain will occur
Saturday aftn with the approach of an upper level disturbance.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     37  44  26  51 /  20  60  30   0
Quincy          31  38  22  49 /  40  30  10   0
Columbia        34  40  24  53 /  30  50  30   0
Jefferson City  35  41  24  54 /  30  60  30   0
Salem           35  46  26  49 /  10  50  40   5
Farmington      36  48  27  53 /  10  60  60   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX