Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 292016
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Another cold night as surface ridge centered over western MO shifts
southeastward through our forecast area.  There will likely be
patchy light frost late tonight, especially across southeast MO and
southwest IL where the sky will be mostly clear and the surface wind
light.  Mid-high level clouds will be spreading into northeast and
central portions of MO late tonight due to increasing low-mid level
warm air advection ahead of an approaching northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Scattered showers are expected to develop and shift southeastward
through our forecast area Thursday into Thursday evening ahead of
the shortwave and an associated weak surface low.  Much colder air
will advect southeastward into the region Thursday night and Friday
as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Lakes region, and as
a large and strong surface ridge builds southeastward into our area
from the northern Plains.  Strong cold air advection and gusty
surface winds can be expected on Friday with highs only in the 40s
across most of our forecast area.  The models drop the -8 degree C
850 mb isotherm southward to near the STL area on Friday.  The
coldest temperatures are expected Friday night as the sky clears out
and the surface wind diminishes with the surface ridge axis across
northeast and central MO by 12z Saturday.  Will issue a freeze watch
for late Friday night and early Saturday morning with lows in the
20s expected across most of our forecast area.  A warming trend will
begin on Sunday as an upper level ridge moves eastard across the
region, and the surface/low level winds become s/swly as the
surface/850 mb ridge shifts southeast of our area.  There will be a
chance of precipitation Monday through Tuesday or Tuesday night as
an upper level trough approaches and a cold front moves slowly
southeastward through the region.  The GFS is a little more
progressive with the upper level trough and associated cold front
versus the ECMWF model, and shifts the precipitation southeast of
our forecast area by Tuesday evening.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue as surface high pressure moves
into the region. A weak disturbance will bring an increase in mid
level cloud cover late tonight and through the day on Thursday. A
few showers or sprinkles will be possible across the area, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected to continue. Mid level cloud cover will
increase tomorrow with a threat of a shower or sprinkle in the
late afternoon.

CVKING

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-
     Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Shelby
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Friday night through Saturday morning FOR
     Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-
     Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe
     IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-
     Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX






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