Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
FXUS63 KLSX 162040
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
340 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Band of light-moderate snow continues along from Randolph County IL
thru near the Farmington MO area and into Reynolds County MO but
continues to show a weakening trend. Latest model guidance shows
this band to effectively weaken and dissipate by 00z with perhaps
just a few flurries left behind for the early evening hours.
Otherwise, look for clearing skies by midnight for most areas with
north winds slowly diminishing. Temps in the teens seem reasonable,
with the best potential for dropping perhaps into the single digits
in some of the protected valley areas of the Ozarks of southeast MO
where some fresh snow cover up to 3 inches will help.
.LONG TERM: (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Surface ridge will dominate our region on Monday with southerly flow
already returning to most areas during the afternoon. Plenty of
sunshine is also expected. As has been the case with most of the
warmups the past few months, guidance is likely too low by about 3-5
degrees, and have adjusted accordingly along the lines of the
A strong shortwave aloft accompanied by a surface cold front will
then approach the area on Tuesday afternoon. Marginal moisture
return should result in a small chance for showers late, with the
chances increasing some heading into the evening as the better
moisture has more opportunity to pull northward into the area.
Prefer at or slightly above the higher MOS for PoPs due to decently
strong dynamics. Breezy southwest winds on Tuesday will also help
surge temps well into the 60s and strongly prefer at or above the
warmest MAV MOS values.
Temps to then drop back to seasonable levels on Wednesday in the
wake of the cold front with a return back to the 60s and perhaps
around 70 for late week as southwest winds kick back in. Another
upper level disturbance and surface cold front for Friday with the
next chance for rain showers.
Much weaker disturbances, or at least ones with a less clear signal,
appear in the offing for next weekend but with high pressure slowly
building in from the north, favor a dry but seasonably cool
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014
Surface low over eastern AR northern MS will move eastward. There
may be flurries in the St Louis metro area this afternoon, but the
more significant precipitation should remain southeast of the taf
sites. The MVFR clouds in UIN and COU may impact the St Louis
metro area at least briefly this afternoon. The cloud cover should
clear out late this afternoon and this evening from northwest to
southeast. Strong and gusty n-nely surface winds should also diminish
this evening, becoming light late tonight as the tight surface
pressure gradient relaxes as the surface low shifts further
southeast of our area and a surface ridge extending from WI sw
into western KS shifts southeastward to over the taf sites by late
tonight. The surface wind will become southerly in UIN and COU by
late Monday morning as the ridge axis shifts southeast of this
Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty nely surface winds continue
bringing dry air into the STL area keeping it dry and VFR. There
still may be a brief period of MVFR cigs this afternoon along with
flurries. The cloud cover should advect southeast of STL by early
this evening. The strong and gusty winds should also diminish this
evening, becoming light by late tonight and early Monday morning.
The surface wind will become s-sely Monday afternoon.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Crawford
MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-St. Francois MO-Ste.
Genevieve MO-Washington MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Randolph