Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 280154

854 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Issued at 851 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Just made some minor changes to the temperature and wind
forecasts. otherwise going forecast look good. We can really use
some rain around here.



.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Primary cold front is through the area, and the secondary push of
cooler and much drier air is filtering through the area at this
time.  Dewpoint temperatures are already falling through the 60s
into the 50s and ambient temperatures are either steady or have
fallen a degree or so across parts of central and northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois.  The primary forecast challenge for
tonight will be temperatures and cloud cover behind the front.  The
shortwave over the Upper Midwest is continuing to dig to the
east-southeast and a broad swath of stratocumulus is following in
its wake.  Some of the strato-cu is undoubtedly diurnally driven and
will dissipate.  However, some of it looks thick enough to make it
into the area.  Not very confident on areal coverage tonight so have
only few-scattered clouds in the forecast.  MOS lows look reasonable
so followed them closely.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

A deep longwave upper TROF will dominate eastern North America thru
the period, resulting in NW flow over our region.  An extended
period of below normal temps should be the result with maxes in the
upper 70s and low 80s each day with mins in the 50s and low 60s.
Quite a treat for the climatologically hottest time of the year.

The NW upper flow is expected to initially give us dry wx thru
Wednesday night, but what looks to be a bit stronger non-sheared
disturbances trickling down for Thursday thru Saturday with a bit
more moisture thru the column in place looks to be good enough for a
low PoP at this time for what should be diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Gusty northwest winds will prevail through the forecast period,
with gusts diminishing after sunset this evening, only to return
by mid- to late morning on Monday. VFR flight conditions are also
expected to continue. Area of stratocu north of area terminals
continues to dissipate as it edges southward, and given the loss
of heating and continued dry air filtering into the area
overnight, do not expect redevelopment until late Monday morning.
Currently, soundings indicate potential scattered to broken
ceilings Monday, though with bases expected to be around
4000-5000ft, VFR conditions will prevail.

Specifics for KSTL:
Gusty northwest winds will diminish after sunset this evening,
though sustained wind speeds will remain up around 10KT. Gusts
will return by mid- to late morning on Monday, though are expected
to be lower than the gusts experienced today, and remain
northwesterly. Currently, mostly clear conditions look to continue
through the overnight hours, with diurnal cumulus developing by
around 15Z Monday. Soundings indicate scattered to broken
coverage, particularly during the late morning and early
afternoon, but with bases around 5000ft, VFR conditions will





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