Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 041157
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
657 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROF TRAVERSING CANADA AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AND MONDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MODELS
HINTING AT A SURFACE WAVE TRAVERSING THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...COUPLED
WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN...WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER FAVORABLE SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS AND
WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. THE LATEST
ECWMF PAINTS A SWATH OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND I-70 CORRIDOR IN ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WHICH
WOULD ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT
BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO
NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
AND ZONAL WHICH IS WHY CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU, KUIN: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: IFR TO MVFR FOG ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SMOKE FROM INDEPENDENCE DAY
FIREWORKS IN THE METRO AREA MAY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TONIGHT AND
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO HAZE AT METRO AREA TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY AFTER
05/02Z.

KANOFSKY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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