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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230528
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WFOS LSX AND LMK DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY A ROW OF COUNTIES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS AND THEN
FROM PERRY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SCOTT AND STODDARD IN MISSOURI. IT
LOOKS A LITTLE FUNKY IN MISSOURI...BUT THAT IS DUE TO THE CORE OF
STRONGER WINDS IN THAT REGION. THE WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY FORECAST
OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY DO
NOT QUITE GET DOWN TO 10 BELOW...BUT LEFT THAT ALONE BECAUSE IT
WILL BE CLOSE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE LOWS WELL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS...MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA MAY SEE SOME NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL GIVE THIS A MENTION IN THE HWO.

KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VAN BUREN MISSOURI
TO MURRAY KENTUCKY. THE HRRR AND WRF RUNS REALLY DRY UP ANY ECHOES
AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA...AND THERE HASN`T BEEN ANY REPORTS OF SNOW
REACHING THE GROUND THIS SIDE OF KJLN. WON`T BE COMPLETELY
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...BUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. FIGURE THAT COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT ENDED UP RAISING LOWS A BIT FOR TONIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE IS GIVING QUITE A RANGE FOR FIRST PERIOD LOWS.

LOOKING UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON MONDAY IS A BIT TOO COLD. LEANED TOWARD THE LESS COLD
NAM/MET NUMBERS...BUT IT WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO GET THROUGH THE
TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NOT SURE IF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP MUCH MONDAY NIGHT OR NOT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OR
CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE.
DEFINITELY WENT TO THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...SO A
DECENT WARM UP IS FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING OFF SO COLD...IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE FREEZING
MARK.

A DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR REGION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
ACTUALLY BE MILD...RELATIVELY SPEAKING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 ALL NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.   THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND SETTLE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP
OFF TO EVEN COLDER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ONLY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS.

MODELS SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK IN THE 30S AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.  ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON TIMING AND TRACK OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF.  ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE PAH FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE GFS JUST SHOW MINIMAL
QPF REACHING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY
SUNDAY BOTH MODELS SHOW DECENT QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE PAH FA.  JUST
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY.  BOTH MODELS YESTERDAY
SHOWED THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
SO WE STILL ARE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.  THE LATER TIMING
DOES AT LEAST ALLOW SOME "WARMER" TO GET INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, THUS LEADING TO LESS WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE WITH WEAKENING SURFACE WIND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS
THE AREA BY 12Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>091.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-110-
     111.

IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR KYZ010-014-015-
     018>020.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SMITH