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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221139 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
539 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Forecast confidence below average Friday and Friday night, otherwise
above average. Models still not in good agreement concerning the
approaching system.

Zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface should keep the
region dry through tonight. Latest model runs have backed off
somewhat on the timing and track of the storm system expected to
affect our region Friday and Friday evening.

Latest model runs seem to be suppressing the approaching system a
bit more thus slowing down the onset of precipitation in our area as
well as shifting the best chances of precipitation and highest QPF
farther south and east.

With the exception of our far southern counties, it now looks like
precipitation will hold off for the remainder of our CWA through
midday Friday. With such a cold start Friday morning, precipitation
over the far southern counties may begin as a rain/snow mix then
quickly change over to all rain. The onset of precipitation being a
few hours slower will allow the atmosphere to warm up a bit so
beyond the late morning mix of rain and snow, precipitation should
be all rain Friday afternoon, however if a few snowflakes were mixed
in it wouldn`t surprise me.

It now appears that any accumulating snowfall will occur Friday
evening as the atmospheric column begins to cool. Areas generally
south and east of a line from Owensboro to Mayfield Kentucky will be
the most likely to receive accumulating snowfall with the southern
Pennyrile region having the highest probability with up to an inch
possible.

By midnight Friday night precipitation will have moved out of all
except the far southeast corner of our CWA. Little to no additional
snow accumulation is expected after midnight.

No doubt as we draw closer to Friday, adjustments to the forecast will
be necessary, but for now it doesn`t look too ominous.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Medium confidence in the extended.

The main focus for weather will be Sunday as a fast moving clipper
type system races through the region on the northwest flow aloft. It
will be a bit breezy as this system approaches. However with highs
Sunday expected to be around 50 for the area would not expect too
much discomfort. Also rainfall amounts appear to be extremely light
for any given location with averages around a tenth of an inch. The
best chance of rain will be the northeast or Evansville tri state
area. However the latest 00z Thu model runs are trying to spread the
coverage farther west even over southeast Missouri. But again only
light amounts expected. The precip will likely linger into the
evening and overnight areas east of the Mississippi River possibly
mixing with flurries before ending after midnight. The work week
appears to be mainly dry for the area except possibly Thursday when
a cold front moves through the area. At this time it appears to be a
little moisture starved and models indicate little to nothing with
its passage other than a wind shift and slightly cooler temps. Will
monitor for possible introduction of pops at that time.

As for temps expect above normal temps Sunday as southerly flow
increases over the area ahead of the approaching cold front. For the
work week expect near normal high and lows at least until the next
frontal passage late in the week.

The long term appears mainly dry as the northwest flow pattern
continues. A little light rain or snow is possible Sunday afternoon
into Monday morning, mainly east of the Mississippi River. This
precip will be associated with a clipper type system that will move
southeast across the Ohio Valley.

As far as the daily details...
Saturday and Saturday night will be dry and milder as winds become
southwest ahead of the clipper type disturbance. Clouds will begin
to increase on Saturday night.

Sunday into Sunday night...the models have trended further northeast
with the path of the system, especially the 12z gfs. All models are
in good agreement that the surface low will track southeast across
Ohio. The models have backed off on pops and qpf. In fact, southeast
Missouri will have a dry forecast for the entire long term period.
The best chance of precip will be over sw Indiana Sunday night, but
even there it should be rather spotty. Temps will fall from the 40s
Sunday into the mid and upper 30s Sunday night.

On Monday and Monday night...dry conditions are expected as weak
high pressure moves east from the Plains to the Mississippi Valley.
Highs will be mainly in the lower 40s with lows in the 20s.

Tuesday through Wednesday will continue dry with not much change in
temps. Another clipper type system appears likely, but once again
the path and strength of the system would need to be ideal to
generate precip in such a dry air mass.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 539 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

Various cloud decks will pass across the TAF sites through the
period but heights should remain VFR. Winds will either be calm or
out of the north to north northeast AOB 5 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH