Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170213

912 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

Issued at 912 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Looking at the latest model appears that the nern MO low
pressure system may hesitate in its forward movement late on Sun as
mid level shrtwv energy associated with an ern Canada low departs.
This could result in heavier rain amounts late Sun, especially over
the swrn IN/nrn Pennyrile region, though up to an inch or so is
possible tonight in the western two-thirds of the PAH forecast area
as the system arrives. Total rainfall amounts through Sun night are
still forecast to be 1-2 inches east of the MS River. Isolated areas
may have somewhat higher amounts, but the models are having some
trouble focusing significant rainfall amounts in one particular
area. The exceedance of FFG does not appear to be likely enough to
issue a Flood Watch at this time. This potential will continue to be
monitored in later shifts.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The showers associated with a MCV moving eastward along I-64, have
taken their sweet time in raining out today. Coverage should
continue to dwindle through the late afternoon mainly across the
Evansville Tri State.

The main issue involves a compact mid/upper-level system over
northeast Missouri, that all 12Z guidance agrees will slowly push
southeast into our region late tonight and Sunday. The associated
surface low over northern Missouri this afternoon will shift
eastward just along or north of I-64 Sunday into Sunday evening.

The combination of low-level warm advection with a southwesterly
low-level jet of 25-30kts tonight, in addition to the forcing
associated with upper system, should result in considerable
coverage of convection late this evening and through the overnight
hours. The main issue is likely to be locally heavy rainfall with
some potential for training across southern Illinois and the
Evansville Tri State area.

With the surface low and ever increasing low-level moisture
expected in the area Sunday, figure that re-development is likely
over much of the area during the afternoon. Will hang onto likely
PoPs into Sunday evening as the surface low finally exits the
region. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern Sunday and
Sunday night.

Will keep chance PoPs across the area Monday and Tuesday, with
diurnal development likely, and the possibility of an upper-level
disturbance in the weak northwest flow aloft.

Daytime temperatures will be modulated by convection Sunday
through Tuesday. The impact of convection will likely be greatest
in the east Sunday. A warming trend is expected through Tuesday. Much
of the area could see temperatures in the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Lows should be mild, generally in the lower 70s, each night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

This period begins with a compressed set of westerlies from the WFO
PAH forecast northward to a closed low over the Western Great lakes.
This closed low quickly exits eastward on Wednesday, allowing a
ridge to build northwest and expand into the forecast area from the

With time, the intrusion of the ridge into the southwest will serve
to gradually cap diurnally induced convection from west to east
across the WFO PAH forecast area through next weekend. With the
grids, attempted to show the slow eastward progression of drier air
into the west, with shrinking PoPs to the east. Gradually warmed
temperatures through the latter half of the week as the ridge builds
into the area.


Issued at 801 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Showers/storms moving toward us from MO will enter terminal
forecast pic by/shortly after midnight, mainly KCGI/KPAH. Will carry
vicinity mention of showers for cover, with cigs lowering thru
VFR. May see some MVFR cigs by tmrw morning, as upper wave moves
in, and shower/storm chances bubble up again during heat of day
for all terminals.




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