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000
FXUS63 KPAH 251050
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Updated Aviation section.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

High pressure will move east today, with NW flow aloft in place
NE of ridge center over the southern Plains and Rockies.
Temperatures should be slightly warmer with return flow just
getting going. H7 heights build through tonight and Saturday. This
should keep convective chances out of the picture, until perhaps
Saturday afternoon across the northern 1/3 of the area (slight
chance PoPs). Chances will increase NNE 1/3 of the area Saturday night
as perturbations move ESE in the mid trop flow and interact with
more than adequate instability. Moisture is the main question
mark, even into Sunday. Convection appears likely, but coverage,
southward extent and magnitude are still question marks. Thus no
more than chance PoPs north for now. Models show best moisture
departing the KEVV tri-state area Sunday morning with only marginal
moisture the rest of the day. The frontal aspect and degree of
instability warrant PoPs later Sunday, but coverage is uncertain at
this point. Chances linger in the evening over the SE 1/3 of the
area, then dry from midnight on Sunday night. Should be hot Saturday
and Sunday. Heat indices around 100 west 1/2 of the area Saturday
and most of the area Sunday. Any of the convection could be strong
to perhaps briefly severe, primarily across the NRN 1/3 of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

A very tranquil week is coming up for the region next week. By 12Z
Monday, the upper level wave and associated sfc front will be in the
eastern Great Lakes region and will continue to move east to the
eastern seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. During the week, our region will be
under the influence of a large trough across the eastern half of the
country, with amplified ridging taking place out west. Models bring
a weak lobe of energy southward across the area on Monday, but it
should only result in some passing clouds, as moisture is limited.
However, the bigger story to start out the week, will be the below
normal temperatures.

High pressure from central Canada will migrate south/southeastward
toward us early next week and bring a much cooler/drier airmass into our
region. While we will see much cooler temperatures on Monday as
compared to the projected weekend heat, the coolest air will likely
take until about Tuesday to arrive. This means that we should
experience another few degree drop in temperatures then, with some
places likely only reaching the upper 70s for highs.

With high pressure influencing the weather through at least
Thursday, we should expect a rain free forecast with temperatures
moderating back into the low to mid 80s by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

VFR conditions with occasional high clouds. Some CU possible east
of a KAJG-KCEY line midday through afternoon. Light SSW winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$