


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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683 FXUS63 KPAH 070451 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances continue today and will continue through next week with daily chances. - Heat and humidity persist. - Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving into the upper 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Watching isolated to scattered thunder develop across parts of SEMO/southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. In the hot and humid airmass MLCAPEs are about 2500 J/kg. SFc-700mb theta-e differentials are about 25-30C with essentially non-existent shear. PWAT values are about 2.00 inches. This will result in very slow moving convection with very efficient rainfall rates and with the slow movement isolated flash flooding is possible. A few damaging downbursts are also possible this afternoon. We then stay embedded in a relative weakness in the flow aloft through Wednesday. With surface dewpoints in the low 70s afternoon showers and storms are pretty much guaranteed through that period. Coverage will be limited by the relatively lack of forcing but locally heavy rain and a downburst or two seem possible given the parameter space. A little bit of a coverage decrease for the latter half of the week, briefly, before an aspiring cooler-than-it-was front tries to work towards the area on Saturday. From the look of the upper-level pattern provided by the GFS/ECMWF I wouldn`t get my hopes up too high the front makes it through but it does seem to be strong enough to result in an increase in coverage of showers and storms. Heat index values remain hot but seasonable and below advisory levels based on the current forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 All remaining shower activity is expected to dissipate or be south of the TAF sites by the beginning of the period. Still playing scattered diurnal convection, with the exception of KMVN where a weak cold frontal wind shift is expected about midday. MVFR ceilings are still expected for few hours in the morning at KMVN and KEVV. Fog development is possible at KMVN right at the end of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...DRS