Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200339
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1139 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Sprinkles/showers will fall apart for the next hour or so. The
main action to watch is the rain/Thunder in E Minnesota/W
Wisconsin. Latest HRRR is still on track with the rain moving into
NW Lower until after 07z. Will be updating the forecast grids in
the next couple of minutes to reflect any of the minor changes in
timing.

UPDATE Issued at 823 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

There`s a thin band of rain showers across C Wisconsin and into S
Lake Michigan at the moment. This band is expected to move into
the region and probably fizzle initially. The main rain to watch
will be the showers and thunderstorms near KMSP, and southern
Minnesota. As the warm front moves north and into the southern
part of the forecast area, mainly between M-55 and M-72. HRRR
looks to have the rain into NW Lower until after 06z and
completely spread across the region until after 10z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...Period of heavier rain overnight through Thursday morning...

High Impact Weather Potential...Heavy rainfall and minor
flooding/river flooding potential.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Elongated surface low is centered
over SE Ontario with a trailing cold front slicing down through
southern lower Michigan. Drier air and canadian high pressure
across Ontario has been nosing into the Great Lakes through the
day and has successfully eroded away a good deal of the post
frontal stratus...although a good bit remains over NW lower and
eastern upper Michigan. Quite the range of temperatures on either
side of the stratus...ranging from 67F at Oscoda to 39F at Harbor
Springs.

Meanwhile, cold front continues on across the midwest to another
area of low pressure in the central plains just lee of the
Rockies. Short wave impulse noted coming out of the central/northern
Rockies with strong upper jet core punching into the central
plains. This system will advance quickly across the upper midwest
tonight and through the state on Thursday. Already a batch of
widespread showers/storms ahead of the wave and north of the
front...working up through southern Minnesota and into Wisconsin.

Short wave will advance across the northern high plains tonight
before deepening and crossing the northern lakes region on
Thursday/Thursday night. This will draw surface low pressure in
the central plains today...up into the western Great Lakes tonight
and across lower Michigan on Thursday. Still unclear just how
precip evolves tonight into thursday. Ongoing batch of showers/storms
lifting into the upper midwest will likely track into northern
Michigan later tonight through Thursday morning. But also
anticipate additional showers/storms to develop tonight back
across Iowa into Kansas along emerging surface cold front...some
of which will make run at lower Michigan late tonight through
Thursday as deep moisture/instability axis surges into region
ahead of the cold front and along a strengthening low level jet
core.

Will see how things evolve, but at this juncture still anticipate
a good three quarters to one and one quarter inch rainfall across
the area through the day thursday...highest amounts may occur
along/south of M-72 where best convective potential will reside.
This may be enough to push a few river forecast points (already
running on the higher side) close to flood stage for late week and
into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

...Lingering light precip diminishing Thursday night-early Friday...

High impact weather potential: River levels may remain high from
Wednesday night-Thursday`s rain. Otherwise, none.

Pattern Forecast: Strong Pacific flow is expected to result in a
fairly progressive pattern throughout the forecast period into next
week. By Thursday evening, closed mid-level circulation is expected
to be centered across Lake Superior/western Upper with an attendant
surface low squarely centered across northern Lower. All of this
eventually rotating into southern Ontario/Quebec during the day
Friday with diminishing precipitation trends and cold air advection
resulting in below normal temps Thursday night through Friday night
before moderating a bit Saturday as weak high pressure briefly
settles atop the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Diminishing precip trends Thursday night
through Friday, perhaps falling as a rain/snow mixture at times,
especially across eastern Upper.

Lingering light showers are expected to continue Thursday evening-
night, most prevalent across Chippewa County where mid-level
dynamics remain stronger and less effects are felt from dry slotting
behind the departing low pressure...although would still expect a
few showers to be rung out across portions of northern Lower as
well. Cold air advection steadily increasing throughout this time
might be enough to force a rain/snow mix at times, again primarily
across eastern Upper and perhaps for a few of the higher elevation
spots in northern Lower. Recent trends continue to suggest a dry
Friday afternoon, but just as the previous shift alluded to...there
remain hints as mid-level troughing lingers across the state that at
least a few sporadic light showers/drizzle may plague parts of the
area (again, most likely across interior portions of northern
Lower). High temperatures Friday some 10 degrees below normal
...ranging from the low 40s north to the mid-upper 40s elsewhere.

Moisture really strips away throughout the column Friday night as
high pressure arrives from the west. This is expected to dominate
Saturday`s weather as well with mostly sunny skies and temperatures
moderating into the middle 50s area-wide. The next threat for a bit
of light precip arrives from northwest to southeast late Saturday
night into Sunday as a wave drops out of Canada. Not a whole lot of
moisture to be had, but something to keep an eye on for late in the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

High pressure will continue to dominate northern Michigan`s weather
with mostly clear skies, seasonable temperatures, fairly light
winds, and precipitation-free weather through Sunday. Late next
weekend/early next work week will provide the forecast area with the
next chances of precipitation as a weak frontal boundary and then a
another storm system approaches the region.

High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, while lows
will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1132 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Rain and thunder is moving into the Upper Great Lakes this evening
and will begin to affect NW Lower around 07z and spread across the
rest of the N Lower by 10z. Rain will be heavy at times, with some
fog beginning to affect the vsbys after it has been rain for a few
hours. Looking upstream, the observations were better than the
LIFR cat in the models, so have IFR cat cigs based on what is
happening upstream currently. The models tended to be a bit
pessimistic with the CIGS. VSBYS look okay, with the mvfr and IFR
vsbys expected as the rain moves over the region and remains into
the day on Thursday. Not really expecting much of an improvement
until the sfc low moves east of the region Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Winds will veer easterly tonight and strengthen substantially on
Thursday...with gale force gusts anticipate for a handful of
nearshore zones on Thursday...especially on northern lakes
Michigan and Huron and through the Straits. Winds will diminish
some heading into Thursday night. But gusty winds will persist
through the rest the work week and small craft advisory conditions
persisting.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LHZ349.
     GALE WARNING from 6 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-344>346.
     GALE WARNING from 6 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...TBA



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