Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 140829
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
329 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FOG

FORECAST CHALLENGES: FOG VISIBILITY

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB RIDGE AND THE SFC RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A CAPPING
INVERSION THAT HAS TRAPPED THE MOISTURE BELOW 925 MB. THIS HAS
PRODUCED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE FOG
HAS BEEN LIGHT, THERE ARE SOME DENSER PATCHES THAT ARE SHOWING UP
FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE OBSERVATIONS.

TODAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SO THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER MICHIGAN BY 00Z. THE SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO SIT IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY CONTINUING TO PUMP
THE WARMER, MORE HUMID AIR UP UNDERNEATH THE 500 MB RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE AT 850 MB HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN AS WELL AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM THE DAKOTAS. SO AS FAR AS THE FORECAST IS CONCERNED THE
STATUS QUO OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ADDED MOISTURE AT 850 MB LOOKS TO HELP THE
MOISTURE CONTINUE THE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT PROFILE SO THAT DRIZZLE
IS LIKELY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE UPWARD A BIT
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION, BUT THINK THAT THE MAV/GFS WAS A LITTLE
WARM WITH THE CLOUD COVER. CONSIDERING THAT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE TO BE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AND THE THICKENING CLOUD
COVER MOVE INTO THE REGION, WILL EXPECT THAT MOST PLACES WON`T HAVE
MUCH TEMPERATURE MOVEMENT.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SEEM TO CONTINUE TO FLAT LINE WITH THE
MOISTURE AND A LITTLE BETTER FORCING BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION. THE SIGNS FOR DRIZZLE LOOK GOOD
OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS A UNIFORM WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BEFORE
IT VEERS ENOUGH TO HELP WITH THE COLLISION PROCESSES AT THE CLOUD
TOP. SO WILL EXPECT MORE CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...NONE THRU TUESDAY.

UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OPEN UP BY THE
TIME IT REACHES LOWER MI ON TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...A NORTHERN
STREAM TROF MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MN WILL BE CLOSING OFF.
THESE SYSTEMS DON/T QUITE PHASE. THE SURFACE LOW...NEARLY STACKED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM 500MB LOW...WILL LIFT INTO LOWER MI TUESDAY
MORNING. OUR DRIZZLY/-RA PATTERN WILL PERSIST THRU MONDAY...THEN
EVOLVE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD -RA EVENT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES THRU. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP CHANGING TO
SNOW TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS BACK IN. PRECIP
TYPE/COVERAGE/AMOUNTS THE MAIN CONCERNS.

MONDAY...1000-850MB FLOW BACKS FROM SW TO S ON MONDAY AS THE
INCOMING LOW MOVES FROM EASTERN KS TO SE IOWA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
(ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT AND COMMA HEAD OF THE
SYSTEM) WILL REMAIN WEST OF NORTHERN MI THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DECAYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL PUSH INTO NW LOWER MI TOWARD
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT THE
SATURATED LOW LEVELS (UP THRU 825-850MB) BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS
SATURATED AFTER 12Z. SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD -DZ (OR
MARGINAL -RA) TO START THE MORNING...BUT THAT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
LESS PERSISTENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
SECTIONS).

VERY LATE IN THE DAY...NW LOWER WILL SEE RAPID SATURATION AT AND
ABOVE 600MB. THRU 00Z...THERE IS STILL A DRY WEDGE CENTERED ON 700-
750MB...WITH A STILL-MOIST AIRMASS BELOW 800MB. ALSO BY THIS TIME IN
LOWER MI...THE SUB-850MB WINDS ARE BACKING ALMOST SSE...INTRODUCING
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE AREA THAT IS PERHAPS TRYING TO GET SOME
-RA GOING. WILL THUS NOT BUMP UP POPS APPRECIABLY IN NW LOWER MI AT
AND AFTER 21Z.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING YET AGAIN. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
BALMY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...BUT WILL STEER TEMPS A BIT
BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.

MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI BY TUE
MORNING...AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY EVENING. THE COMMA
HEAD/WRAPAROUND/COLD-CONVEYOR-BELT PORTION IS WHERE MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE...THOUGH THAT ISN/T SAYING MUCH. WITH THE
500MB LOW FILLING...AND NO REAL PHASING WITH THE DEEPENING 500MB LOW
NORTH OF MN...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. IN
FACT...AFTER THE DECAYING WARM CONVEYOR BELT CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM W TO E MONDAY EVENING...WE WILL SEE A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
INVADE NORTHERN LOWER TOWARD 06Z. THIS WON/T NECESSARILY STOP
PRECIP...MERELY FLIP US BACK INTO A DRIZZLY PATTERN FOR A BIT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE SPOTTY
SIDE INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP (QPF AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH) ARRIVES IN NORTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT.
PRECIP WILL BE COMFORTABLY ALL LIQUID...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40F.

TUESDAY...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN THE PM AS DEVELOPING NW LOW AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
ENTRAINS SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS ARE AGAIN
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT REMAINING ALL
RAIN UNTIL 18Z...WITH A MIX WITH SNOW ENTERING THE PICTURE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON (AS PRECIP IS
DIMINISHING). SO FOR NOW...NO ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. MORNING MAX TEMPS
NEAR 40F TO THE MID 40S...WITH FALLING READINGS IN THE PM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE WELL DEPARTED...THE NORTHERN STREAM
CUTOFF PROGRESSING THRU THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE TROFFING HERE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SHARP
CYCLONIC MAKES FOR A TOUCHY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORECAST...AS DO THE
MODELS VARYING PORTRAYALS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS (NAM IS SUB -10C
OVER A MUCH BROADER AREA THAN THE OTHER MODELS). NO POINT IN GETTING
TOO BOGGED DOWN IN THE DETAILS FOR NOW...WITH POTENTIAL SNOW IN THE
SNOWBELTS THRU AT LEAST WED NIGHT. POCKET OF COLD AIR HEADS EAST FOR
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

IN THE SHORT VIEW OF THINGS, THE CURRENT WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT HAS
CONTINUED FROM TWO NIGHTS AGO. THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, VSBYS
AND CIGS FOR THE MOST PART WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD IFR, MAYBE EVEN
LIFR. AT ONE POINT, IT LOOKED LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS WILL CROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN, HOWEVER, THOSE HOLES LOOK TO BE FILLING IN WITH MAINLY
LIFR CIGS IN WISCONSIN. SO WILL CONTINUE THE GOING FORECAST,
AMENDING AS NEEDED WHEN A HOLE IN THE OVERCAST BECOMES APPARENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2014

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH STAYS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THEN
AS IT MOVES EAST, WILL BE REPLACED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL HAVE A SLACK GRADIENT AS IT PASSES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
SO NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE THING TO NOTE
HOWEVER, IS THAT THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND PROBABLY BRINGING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE
MARINE FOG INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JSL
SHORT TERM...JAZ
LONG TERM...JAZ
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JSL



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