996
FXUS63 KAPX 060533
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
133 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers into this evening, more widespread showers/storms
  late this evening through Sunday.

- Shower/storm chances at times through the upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will depart the Great Lakes to the east tonight as shortwave
troughing slides overhead. The associated surface cyclone trekking
across Hudson Bay will work into Quebec as the attendant cold front
draped far to its southwest into the central Great Plains swings
across the region tonight and Sunday. High pressure will try to nose
into the northern Great Lakes heading into Sunday night with
subsidence aloft behind the shortwave as it moves out.

Forecast Details:

Diurnal cu has expanded over the last several hours across northern
lower where isolated showers will continue to bubble up this
afternoon and early evening -- mainly along and east of I-75. The
next round of more widespread showers and storms will arrive late
this evening from the northwest ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. Current forecast is that this activity will spread across the
eastern U.P. first, eventually making it to the northwest Michigan
lakeshores in the 10pm-midnight timeframe. Specifically, expectation
is that rain will hold off for most areas for additional fireworks
between 10-11pm -- most notably in Traverse City for the conclusion
of the National Cherry Festival. Best shower/storm chances will
spread across northwest lower, Tip of the Mitt, and eastern upper
after midnight with thunder chances diminishing through the night as
instability wanes with time. Severe storms are currently not
expected.

Best rain chances will migrate southeast across the CWA early Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon as the front works across the area.
Thunder chances also look to increase some through the morning and
into the afternoon with rising instability due to daytime heating.
While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, chances appear low
at this time due to limited instability and deep-layer shear
overall. The primary concern with activity tonight through Sunday
will be localized heavy rainfall with any training heavy
showers/storms. Rain chances will diminish from northwest to
southeast on Sunday, with rain chances finally departing the CWA
Sunday evening. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be in place
Sunday with the rain and frontal passage. Highs will range from the
low to mid 70s across northwest lower and eastern upper to the low
to mid 80s for those near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Largely zonal flow looks to be overhead for the start of the work
week as a cold front gradually works southeast of the CWA Sunday
night into Monday. Troughing is expected to progress over the Great
Lakes in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, providing enough forcing
aloft to generate somewhat disorganized surface pressure falls
across the region. There`s uncertainty in pattern evolution heading
into the second half of the week regarding how long aforementioned
troughing sits overhead. Current thought is the troughing will
gradually pivot east of the Great Lakes late this upcoming week,
allowing high pressure to temporarily build in heading into next
weekend.

Forecast Details:

Rain-free weather is expected across northern Michigan Monday
through most of Tuesday with temporary high pressure behind the
frontal passage. Slight chance to chance showers and storms are in
the forecast at times through the remainder of the week as troughing
works overhead, potentially providing enough support for some
activity across the area. Best chances for rain may come during the
middle of the week as aforementioned weak low pressure work across
the Great Lakes. Otherwise, slightly warmer than average
temperatures look to be in store for the Northwoods through the work
week with highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows
ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Showers expanding into northern MI. Cigs will lower overnight,
and CIU/PLN/MBL will become IFR, and TVC low-end MVFR. These
sties gradually improve Sunday afternoon. APN will not lower to
IFR until the day on Sunday.

A sw breeze veers nnw by late today.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...JZ