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811
FXUS63 KAPX 201813
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
213 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Warm and dry to end the week...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Gustier winds again
today.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight surface and upper air charts
reveal a respectable ridge axis through the midwest with 500 MB
heights pushing 580+ DM into lower Michigan. Strong persistent
surface high pressure remains locked across the lower eastern
seaboard with ridging stretching up into the western lakes. Broad
lower pressure resides through the western CONUS with a developing
tighter P-gradient in the western lakes. Otherwise...a warm and fairly
quiet weather pattern remains across the eastern CONUS...particularly
by late October standards.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal. High pressure will largely
remain in control of northern Michigans weather through tonight.
Tightening P-gradient across the western Great Lakes will lead to
another day with gustier winds and marine headlines...but not
enough to worry about any land based wind headlines. High
temperatures today will run a good 15 to as much as 20 degrees
above normal. But after a cursory look at record values for the
20th...record high temperatures appear just a little out of reach
today (unless temps really overachieve).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Unseasonably warm, showers Sunday...

Still another couple of days of unseasonably warm days as high
pressure shifts slowly off to the east Saturday and a cold front
approaches from the west Sunday. Meanwhile, a western trough slowly
ejects into the Plains and eventually the East over the coming days.
This will spell an eventual end to our unseasonably warm
temperatures next week. So expect partly sunny, breezy and warm
conditions Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A few
spots may challenge record highs with the record for the date of 70
at the SOO in jeopardy of being broken. A mild night Saturday night
with lows only in the middle and upper 50s. Shower chances will
increase Sunday from west to east as a cold front moves in from the
west. Highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Changes are forthcoming with the unseasonably warm pattern going
away (at least temporarily). Western trough moves eastward and takes
what looks like temporary residence over the area. The details of
how deep the trough gets and whether there is phasing with a
southern system moving up from the south are still uncertain. Will
continue to keep the forecast general for now and have chances for
mainly lake effect rain showers for the Tuesday and Wednesday time
frame (at this point it does not appear it will be cold enough for
the first flakes of snow in the higher terrain but still can`t
totally rule that out). If the ECMWF ends up bring on the right track
we would be dealing with a bombing out low in the eastern lakes by
midweek but it remains the outlier solution. High temperatures will
drop each day from the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday to the upper
40s to lower 50s Wednesday before rebounding into the lower and
middle 50s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Expecting VFR CIGs and VSBYs as high pressure remains over the
region for the next 24 hours. Southwest flow will remain over the
region until the next system moves in (expected Sunday morning).
The one thing of note will be the low level wind shear. With the
warm sw flow, especially aloft, has been setting up stable
condition over the land, mainly at night, but some coastal sites
such as MBL and TVC have been having stable conditions through
most of the day. Looking at the model soundings, the inversion,
at these sites, is still expecting to continue through most of the
day, overnight tonight, and probably into the day on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Gusty winds will develop again today particularly on the Lake
Michigan side...and persist through much of the weekend with SCA
winds/waves anticipated for much of the time. Have extended SCA`s
on the MI side out through the day Sunday. Less clear cut for the
Lake Huron side and Whitefish Bay although I suspect SCA
conditions will be realized for at least parts of Lake Huron this
afternoon.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345-347-
     348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...BA