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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270516
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TO START THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOLLOWED BY SOME
FOG OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF M-72.  SOME HAIL AROUND HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRETTY
WEAK PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN...STRETCHING INTO
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THEN TURNING WEST ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.  700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...
WITH A SECOND POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY SPREADING EAST FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.  HAVE BEEN SEEING
PERIODIC CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
DAY...MORE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME
ADDITION DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO GET GOING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG
SURFACE WIND SHIFT.

AFOREMENTIONED MINNESOTA PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERNIGHT AS STRONGER
UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CENTRAL CANADA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION INTO THIS
EVENING..FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...DESPITE NOT A GREAT DEAL OF HEATING TODAY...TEMPERATURES
HAVING WARMED INTO THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S
GENERATING A MODEST 500-1000J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE BASED ON
MODIFYING 12Z APX SOUNDING (THOUGH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THUS FAR
TODAY HAS BEEN ELEVATED).  CUMULUS FIELD OUT THE WINDOW HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT "MUSHY" THIS AFTERNOON...SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF
ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS PLUS REMNANTS OF SURFACE WIND SHIFT RESULTS IN A PICKUP IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THERE. SOME OF THE CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING HAIL TODAY AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WON`T
CONTINUE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CELLS THAT POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO TAPER OFF TOWARD LATE THIS
EVENING AS FORCING DEPARTS AND SHORT WAVE RIDING AND SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...LOTS OF
CLOUDS AROUND TO START AND SOME CIRROSTRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BUT
EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN LATER ON AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PRECIPITATION TODAY (ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH WHERE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE ALREADY SMALL) THINK FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...NEEDED RAIN THEN ANOTHER BRIEF RETURN TO FALL-LIKE WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ON SUNDAY.

PATTERN SUMMARY: THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRING OF UPPER TROUGHING
LOOKS SET TO RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE MOMENT...OUR MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR SUNDAY IS ROAMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...IN THE FORM OF A RATHER STRONG CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
LAKES ON SUNDAY...ULTIMATELY HELPING CARVE OUT AN EVEN DEEPER
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
THIS FEATURE HANGING TIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY RIGHT ON INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THANKFULLY...FROM
A THERMAL PERSPECTIVE...AIR INITIALLY VERY CHILLY/FALL-LIKE AIR MASS
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL SUCCUMB TO GRADUAL MODERATION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NO EXTENDED STRETCHES OF ABOVE OR EVEN
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS ARE ON THE HORIZON.

NOW FOR A LOOK AT THE SPECIFICS...

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY DECENT SHOT AT SOME
NEEDED RAINS ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION FORCING
STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN...NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO THE PRECIP AS WELL GIVEN A RATHER SOUPY AIR MASS IN
PLACE BENEATH THE MID LEVEL COOLING...THOUGH LAPSE RATES DON`T LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING TOO GREAT. STILL...FROM A CONVECTIVE STANDPOINT...CAN
FORESEE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF M-72 (CLOSER THE "WARM
SECTOR") BENEATH AN AXIS OF STEEPER 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WHERE
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD GAIN THE MOST TRACTION. SEVERE POTENTIAL NOT
VERY HIGH WITH WEAKENING WIND FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...BUT
SLOWER STORM MOTION COUPLED WITH MODEST CAPE (MLCAPE VALUES UP TO
AROUND 1200 J/KG PROVIDED WE CAN MANAGE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S) AND
PWATS UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES COULD CERTAINLY DELIVER SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER RAINS. TEMPS ARE TRICKY AND WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
RAINFALL EXTENT AND DURATION...BUT CAN ENVISION SOME LOCALES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STUCK ONLY AROUND 70. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DWINDLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BETTER FORCING WORKS THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES...WITH STEADY COLD
ADVECTION KICKING INTO GEAR AFTER 06Z...SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS DROPPING
BACK THROUGH THE 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: LET THE COOL DOWN BEGIN! THE CALENDAR MAY SAY
LATE JULY BUT TEMPS SHOULD FEEL MORE LIKE MID SEPTEMBER AS QUITE THE
CHILLY AIR MASS ALOFT (H8 TEMPS AVERAGING 5-7C) DROPS INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHERLY FLOW. ACCOMPANYING SAID COOLNESS WILL BE SHARPLY DRIER
CONDITIONS...FAVORING A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH THE DEGREE OF THERMAL TROUGHING ALOFT...HAVE LITTLE
DOUBT WE WILL SEE QUITE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING...PARTICULARLY JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN PERHAPS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY LATE JULY SUN ANGLE AND
INCREASING DRY AIR INTRUSION WHICH SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOSS OF HEATING
AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME
SHOULD SUPPORT FAIRLY QUICK CLEARING MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIKELY STILL ENOUGH BACKGROUND FLOW TO KEEP
TEMPS IN CHECK. STILL...DO FORESEE LOTS OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50. ANOTHER PERFECT SLEEPING WEATHER NIGHT!

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: STATUS QUO PATTERN ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK RIGHT
ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS..WHILE A CLOSED LOW FEATURE MEANDERS
SLOWLY AROUND THE JAMES BAY AREA. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE OF VERY HARD TO TIME WEAKER SHORTWAVES...ALL
WHILE SLOWLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WIND PROFILES ALLOW INCREASINGLY
"BETTER" (NOT GREAT) BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO OOZE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT...THAT SETUP
SHOULD SPELL AT LEAST A FEW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS TO FIRE OFF IN THE FAVORED AREAS (I.E. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE
SHADOW) OF NORTHEAST LOWER AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER AS HIGH TEMPS
GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE LOOKS FAR FROM
WIDESPREAD AND ALMOST HESITATE TO INCLUDE SUCH SMALL POPS EACH DAY
AS MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY COME
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HINTS OF A BETTER
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. BASED ON BETTER GUIDANCE
AGREEMENT...WILL EXPAND A SHOWER MENTION FOR ALL AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...TEMPS SHOULD GET A SLOW BOOST BACK
THROUGH THE 70S INTO LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL NO HINTS OF ANY TRUE
SUMMERTIME HEAT ANY TIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP THANKS TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER
NRN MICHIGAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEND TO SOME LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT
PICKS UP IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ALM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB