Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271735
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1235 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

Made some early updates this morning to account for the areas of
fog and near sfc stratus that has advected in from the overnight
hours. This fog was dense in much of the higher terrain with poor
visibility, so added that to the HWOAPX. Low level flow continues
to shift out of the south, and with continued shallow 925mb
overlake instability, generating lake clouds is feeding SSW/S
flow regimes. All other areas is seeing the remnant lake moisture
trapped below a lowering inversion. Thus, skies were cloudy across
all of nrn Michigan.

The minimal/nil mixing thus far and that low inversion will keep
the fog around into late morning. Fcst soundings still suggesting
that waa aloft and continued subsidence/lowering inversion will
scour out clouds away from the S flow regimes late this afternoon.
Lowered high temps just a bit due to the low clouds/minimal
mixing.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

...Warming trend continues thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Narrow surface ridge axis will slide
east early this morning away from Michigan. Southerly flow will
gradually strengthen later today and especially tonight in response
to tightening pressure gradient ahead of developing low pressure
over the Plains. Decoupling late tonight will keep much of the
strengthening wind speeds aloft thru sunrise Monday...before mixing
down to the surface. Chances of rain showers will begin to develop
across our SW CWA late tonight as deeper moisture starts to surge
into Michigan well in advance of the developing low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...main forecast issue is timing the start
of precip chances into our CWA late tonight. Latest NAM still
suggest any precip chances across our CWA will hold off until after
06z...with better chances not entering our forecast picture until
after 09z. Still appears our our SW CWA will see any precip chances
thru 12Z Monday. Per NAM BUFR soundings...this area will
sufficiently warm late tonight thanks to strengthening low level WAA
for any precip that does reach the ground to be all liquid. Thus...
no precip type issues are expected at this time.

In the meantime...today will be partly to mostly cloudy...with high
temps warming into the low to mid 40s as low level WAA strengthens.
Temps will cool back into the mid to upper 30s tonight...but will
warm a few degrees late tonight as low level southerly winds further
strengthen.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

...Nice day Sunday, Mixed Precipitation Monday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure at 500 mb and the sfc is NE
of the forecast area with high pressure (at the sfc and up to 500
mb) to the west. Upstream is the next system to watch which will
begin to affect the region starting Monday morning. It is in the
form of a few 500 mb troughs off the west coast of the US with a
another piece of energy just moving through the ridge in the Gulf of
Alaska.

Primary Forecast Concerns...main concern is the initial
precipitation type when the precipitation is moving in from Lake
Michigan, early Monday morning(about 06z to 09z). Models are
insistent that the sfc to 850 mb profile will remain above freezing,
or at least support a mix of rain/snow without any freezing. Think
that this will be right as the strong warm advection, especially
closer to the precipitation will remain above freezing. There is a
small chance that there could be a few puddles of trapped
subfreezing temperatures and fzra could result, but think this is
not the likely scenario, have a rain, rain/snow mix, or snow as the
precipitation moves through the region Monday morning. Once we are
past 12z, then all the sfc temperatures will be well above freezing
so we should transition to all rain, and remain that way through
Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

Extended (Tuesday through Friday)...Tuesday there`s a pretty decent
dry slot that looks like should drive the rain out before the 500 mb
low deepens and rotates into the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday.
When the low moves into the region, the rain, and probably some
mixed precipitation will move into the region temperature profiles
through Thursday and Friday show that rain would be the expected p-
type during the day, and snow in the interiors at night. Mixed
rain/snow will be expected the rest of the time as the 850 mb
temperatures remain between -6c and -8c through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

MVFR Stratus will finally be eroding out this afternoon and into
this evening, as increasing subsidence/drying from a lowering
inversion and cloud layer drier air work northward into the
airports. A period of mostly clear skies is at least possible for
awhile tonight until higher level clouds arrive from deepening low
pressure to the west. Late tonight and into Monday morning, an
arcing band of rain showers is expect to be decaying as it enters
MBL/TVC. Forcing is rather weak and not expecting much QPF, but
low level moisture will be quickly overtaking nrn Michigan with
likely MVFR/IFR CIGS and VSBYS and drizzle at times.

Light S/SE winds into this evening, before Low level winds will
be increasing tonight for the development of LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 331 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today into this
evening as the surface ridge axis slides east of Michigan.
Conditions will reach SCA criteria across all of our nearshore areas
late tonight...Monday and Monday night as southerly flow strengthens
ahead of developing low pressure over the Plains. Chances of rain
showers will increase on Monday...and will become widespread by
Monday night as deep moisture surges northward into Michigan ahead
of that developing low.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for LSZ322.
     GALE WATCH from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
     LSZ321.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MLR



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