Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 181255
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
755 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE HEAVY LES BAND THAT WAS IMPACTING NE DELTA COUNTY HAS SHIFTED TO
THE E. SINCE THE SLOWLY BACKING FLOW WL ALLOW ONLY SCT LES TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NE PORTION OF DELTA COUNTY TODAY...OPTED TO CANX THE ADVY
FOR THAT COUNTY.

RECEIVED A REPORT OF 8.5 INCHES OF SN NEAR NEWBERRY AT 7 AM. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER LES THERE THRU THE DAY DESPITE
SHIFTING BANDS WITH THE BACKING FLOW AS WELL AS GOOD SN/WATER
RATIOS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE ADVY FOR LUCE COUNTY TO A WARNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS VERY DEEP UPR TROF
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LKS...WITH CLOSED H5 LO OVER THE NE HALF
OF LK SUP...DOWNSTREAM OF HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVER WRN NAMERICA. WITHIN
DEEP THERMAL TROF UNDER THE AXIS OF LOWEST HGTS...THE 00Z H5/H7/H85
TEMPS AT GRB WERE -39/-29/-19C. THERE IS ALSO AN AXIS OF DEEP LYR
FORCING UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS. AT THE LOWER LVLS...A SHAPRLY CYC
NW FLOW ARND LO PRES JUST S OF JAMES BAY IS DOMINATING THE UPR LKS.
THE MARQUETTE 88D VWP INDICATES DEEP MSTR UP TO ABOUT 12K MSL. HI
RES MODEL SDNGS INDICATE A RATHER NARROW DGZ BTWN ABOUT 2-5K FT...
BUT INDICATE SHARP UVV WITHIN THIS LYR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR LES...AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME WELL DEFINED BANDS OF
SN. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THESE EXTENDS FM JUST E OF THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW INTO WRN ALGER COUNTY/NE DELTA COUNTY AND EXHIBITS
REFLECTIVITIES AOA 30DBZ AT MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BAND. RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOW THIS BAND EXTENDING NNWD TO LAKE NIPIGON IN
ONTARIO...WITH MOISTENING OFF THAT BODY OF WATER AS WELL AS ENHANCED
LAND BREEZE CNVGC TO THE E OF MORE W WIND IN MARQUETTE COUNTY
HELPING TO ENHANCE THE INTENSITY. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
BAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE LK SHORE THAT HAVE PEAKED AS HI AS 45-50
MPH NEAR COPPER HARBOR ARE ALSO CAUSING SOME BLSN. DESPITE THE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND DEEP MSTR...THE SCENTRAL CWA IS DRY.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE GOING HEADLINES AND
EXPECTED LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS.

TODAY...IN THE LARGER SCALE...THE UPR LO OVER NE LK SUP EARLY THIS
MRNG IS FCST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT INTO QUEBEC TODAY AND GIVE WAY TO
DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/MID LVL DRYING W-E. AS A SFC HI PRES RDG
UNDER THIS NEGATIVE FORCING MOVES IN FM THE W...THE LLVL FLOW IS
FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE W AND EVEN THE SW OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE
DAY. FCST SDNGS OVER THE W SHOW THE MSTR DEPTH DIMINISHING STEADILY
DURING THE DAY UNDER THE INCOMING SUBSIDENCE. WITH THE STEADILY
BACKING WINDS AND TREND TOWARD MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW/WEAKENING CNVGC
OVER THE WRN CWA...EXPECT THE LES BANDS TO BEGIN SHIFTING...LIMITING
RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVIER SN. SO THE LES WL DIMINISH THERE THRU
THE DAY AND END COMPLETELY AT IWD IN THE AFTN. THIS PROCESS WL BE
MORE DELAYED IN THE SN BELTS E OF MQT. OPTED TO ISSUE AN ADVY FOR
DELTA COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY LES BAND THERE NOW INTO MID
MRNG...WHEN THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND SHIFTING STEADILY TO
THE E. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE FCST TO BACK THERE AS WELL IN THE
AFTN...THE FLOW INTO LUCE COUNTY WL REMAIN FAVORABLE THRU THE DAY.
IN FACT...SOME OF THE HIER RES MODEL SHOW ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC
LINGERING OVER NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU THE DAY AT THE LONG END OF FETCH
ACRS LK SUP. SO WL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS THERE THRU 00Z WED.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR THIS COUNTY...BUT THE MORE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE BANDS WITH SHIFTING WINDS WHEN THE FLOW IS
MOST FAVORABLE SUGGESTS KEEPING A HI END ADVY.

AS THE SFC HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E TNGT...THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST
TO BACK TO THE SW...BUT NOT FAR ENUF TO ALLOW ANY LES OFF LK MI INTO
LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THRU 12Z. LINGERING LES WL SHIFT TO THE N
INTO LK SUP...WITH THE SN SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW. DURING THE NGT...A CLIPPER SHRTWV IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACRS
UPR MI ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC THAT WL
IMPACT MAINLY JUST THE SW HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE WL BE A
NEAR ABSENCE OF ANY MOISTENING BLO H85-7. SO MODEL QPF IS NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AND ONLY NEAR THE WI BORDER. WL
CARRY SOME LO CHC POPS ONLY ALONG THE WI BORDER COUNTIES. WITH PWAT
NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING...
TENDED TO LOWER GOING MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR E HALF...WHERE THE INCOMING CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV
WL ARRIVE LATER AND BE THINNER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND ALONG THE U.P. AND WISCONSIN BORDER LATE
TONIGHT. THIS THIS MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BE DRAGGING A BROAD
1008MB SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO BE ONGOING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT
MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH FOR
ACCUMULATION. WITH THE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT
TO BE OFFSHORE AND OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. BUT AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
STRENGTHENS THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO A 996MB LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE REST OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LEAD TO RISING LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TOWARDS 14.5KFT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND REMAINING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF
THE LAKE EFFECT IN THOSE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND THE EVENING FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING ALOFT LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCREASES THE DRY AIR ABOVE
850MB. WHILE THIS WILL DECREASE THE INTENSITY...STILL EXPECT LAKE
EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST. AS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WEST...THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 8 TO
12 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. TRENDED FORECAST
AMOUNTS UP BASED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS SEEN IN THE LAST 12-18 HOURS
UNDER SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.

NOW FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OVER THE EAST...WHICH LOOKS TO COME IN A
COUPLE PHASES. FIRST...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LUCE COUNTY. THE COMBINED LAKE
EFFECT WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW BAND NEAR LUCE COUNTY. WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING AND CLOUD
WITHIN THE DGZ...EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND THE MAIN ISSUE
IS PINNING DOWN A LOCATION. LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF LUCE AND
WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
BORDERLINE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHEAST LUCE COUNTY. THEN AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES A CLOSED LOW...THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LEAVE ANY
LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED SURFACE
LOW OR TROUGH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE MAIN LOW PULLING OUT TO THE EAST...SHOULD SEE
THAT LOW/TROUGH ALSO PULLING OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND LAKE EFFECT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE FEATURE. THE QUESTION IS IF/WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE (AND A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BAND) AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD. EITHER WAY...SEEMS LIKE EASTERN ALGER...NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT...AND LUCE COUNTY WOULD SEE THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TRENDED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE
AREAS UP FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
HAVE VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 1.5 FEET. ALL
IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.

BEHIND THAT SURFACE TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL SHIFT A RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS ELUDED TO
ABOVE...THIS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST) WILL LEAD
TO WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
LAKE EFFECT WILL STILL BE ONGOING...IT WILL BECOME TRANSIENT AND
SHIFT OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS MANITOBA AND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR BOTH MID CLOUDS UNDER THE BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND ALSO LOW CLOUDS FROM THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE PUMPING OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...THEY APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT DRIZZLE.
WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUDS ABOVE -7C...THINK ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WENT WITH A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THEN WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (TOWARDS
FREEZING)...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND WENT WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE PULLING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WAVE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THESE WAVES PHASE...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW TO
MID 980S MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY
AND PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. AT THIS STAGE IN THE GAME...WILL SHOW
HIGH CHANCE POPS TO LOW END LIKELY VALUES FOR RAIN (ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH-NORTHWEST) BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT CMX/IWD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL IMPROVE
THRU THE DAY INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS DEEP MSTR/CYC NW WINDS AND THE
SHSN/BLSN DIMINISH. SINCE THE FLOW WL BACK TO THE SW AT IWD LATER
TODAY...THE CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. WITH THIS
BACKING SFC WIND...SOME HEAVIER SHSN ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT CMX THIS
EVNG BEFORE THE FLOW SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE SW...LIFTING THE LES
BANDS TO THE NE OF THAT SITE AND ALLOWING AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO IWD LATE WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE/SOME LOWER CLDS AND -SN.

AT SAW...WITH A DOWNSLOPING WNW BACKING SW WIND...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. BUT MVFR CIGS WL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES
THRU THE DAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH SWEEPING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THAT DEPARTED
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO GALES OF
35-40KTS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. NEAR THE DOMINATE BAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50KTS BY GRANITE
ISLAND. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW GALES.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW 25KTS AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE AREA FROM MANITOBA. THIS
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
30KTS. WILL MENTIONED A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ON FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND GUST UP
TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009-084.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MIZ014.

  LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
     007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ243>245-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF




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