Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 251932
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...A SUNNY BUT BREEZY DAY...

WV LOOP AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING
BY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW AROUND 990MB IS OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND WESTERN
CWA. CANADIAN AND NWS MQT/APX RADARS SHOW AREA OF RAIN EXPANDING
OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR BUT BULK OF THE RAIN/COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ALOFT IS STAYING CLOSER TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE...AND WILL MISS UPR
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT AND BY DAYBREAK IT SHOULD BE
CLEAR FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST CWA. ANOTHER PUSH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS AT
H9-H85 SEEMS DESTINED TO DROP ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST CWA BY LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTN WITH
THIS OVERALL VERY DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT. TEMPS TODAY
IN THE 50S OVERALL...THOUGH SOME LOW 60S COULD OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
CNTRL AND EAST CWA INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS MAY BECOME STEADY MID-LATE
AFTN FOR THOSE AREAS...OR PERHAPS FALL SLIGHTLY AS 950-925MB COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS KICKING IN.

WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF ONTARIO LOW WILL BE BATTLING LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IS MARGINAL THOUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DECENT WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WITH 925MB WINDS 35-43 KTS...
STRONGEST OVER KEWEENAW AS WELL AS EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT
CWA. ELSEWHERE 25-30 KTS ARE IN THE MIXED LAYER. GOOD EFFICIENT
MIXING DUE TO THE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH FM KEWEENAW TO
SHORELINE OF ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY...WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG
LK SUPERIOR AND OCCUR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE AFTN OVER
INLAND AREAS. LACK OF ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO WINDS AND THE MARGINAL
UNSTABLE PROFILE LEADS TO ONLY A MARGINAL SETUP TO SEE ADVY LEVEL
WINDS ANYWHERE IN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HAZARD IN
HWO/EWHO...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF WIND ADVY FOR LAND AREAS.
DUE TO HIGHER WAVES AT END OF FETCH OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR COULD
SEE MINOR BEACH EROISION AND WILL ALSO MENTION THIS IN HWO.

WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS FM
FALLING OFF TOO MUCH. PUT LOWEST TEMPS IN MID 30S OVER FAR WEST CWA
IN GOGEBIC COUNTY CLOSER TO SFC RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS
SHOULD STAY IN THE UPR 30S OR LOWER 40S AS EVEN WITH NO CLOUDS
AROUND...A LIGHT BUT STEADY NW WIND PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A 500MB RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT 00Z MON...BUT WILL MOVE E BY
12Z MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY
A BROAD SFC LOW ACROSS MN. EXPECT SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS/ ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE WRN CWA SUN NIGHT IN MON MORNING...THEN
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH
INTENSIFICATION OF THE BROAD SFC LOW OCCURRING. EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
THE BEST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE
LACKING EXACT DETAILS...THE PRECIP FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE
CERTAIN. RAIN SHOWERS /AGAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/ SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THE
DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A DRIER FORECAST FOR TUE MORNING. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AND COOLER NWLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUE INTO THU AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS
-5C...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. MON AND TUE WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S...BUT WED WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S.

WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING LOOK DRY FOR THE MOST PART AS A SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CLOUDS WILL COVER THE AREA DUE TO AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.

POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE MODELS DOES NOT LEND MUCH
CONFIDENCE FOR THU THROUGH NEXT SAT AS THEY POINT TO A DEEPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AOB
-10C. AS MENTIONED MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND DISAGREE WITH
EACH OTHER ON ALL BUT THE VERY GENERAL PATTERN...AND EVEN AT THAT
THE TIMING OF WHEN AND FOR HOW LONG THE COLD AIR MOVES OVERHEAD IS
NOT AGREED ON. WILL HAVE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THU
NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. FOR SAT...MODELS WANT TO BRING A SFC HIGH INTO
THE AREA BUT WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP POPS GOING INTO
SAT FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPS ON
FRI MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS IN THE 30-40KT RANGE THIS AFTN UNDER SHARP
PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS AND LO PRES NEAR JAMES
BAY TO DIMINISH A BIT TOWARD SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WL OCCUR AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
LOCATION. THE WINDS WL DIMINISH FURTHER LATER TNGT/SUN MRNG WITH
CLOSER APRCH OF SFC HI PRES FM THE PLAINS/WEAKENING GRADIENT. VFR
CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE AS THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS DRY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO EAST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO...SW TO W GALES OVER 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST LAKE SUPERIOR. NW WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF THE LOW AND
BEFORE SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...SE WINDS
INCREASE TO 30 KTS OVER MAINLY EAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...WEST WINDS TO 30 KTS AND POSSIBLY UP
TO GALE FORCE OF 35 KTS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AND STAY UP TO 30 KTS INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KTS BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ251-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ250-265-266.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...TITUS






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