Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281659

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated confluent mid/upper level flow
into Upper Michigan behind a trough that has moved southeast into
lower MI. At the surface, high pressure from the nrn plains into nrn
Ontario was building into the wrn Great Lakes. With the drier air
moving in, the IR loop showed clearing over most of the CWA.

Today, As the high continues to build into the area, skies will
remain mostly clear. Although the pres gradient will weaken, nrly
flow will still be strong enough to keep offshore flow going near
Lake Michigan. With 850 mb temps in the 7C to 9C range, expect highs
from the upper 60s east to lower 70s inland west, with cool onshore
flow keeping readings closer to 60 near Lake Superior. afternoon
mixing in the dry airmass will drop dewpoints to around 40.

Tonight, Although there may be some passing high clouds overnight,g
generally favorable radiational cooling conditions will allow temps
to fall toward the lower end of guidance with lows around 40 inland
and the upper 40s closer to the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Persistent troughing across eastern Canada will bring seasonably
cool conditions over the next week, with rain and some storms likely
on Thursday.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Ridging will linger over the Great
Lakes region at the start of the period before weakening while
drifting SE through Wednesday night. Low-level moisture looks less
for Wednesday than previously thought per mixing of very dry air
this afternoon. Have thus removed mention of any showers through
Wednesday afternoon expect for far NW Lake Superior.

Wednesday night through Thursday night: A sharp axis of deep
troughing over northern Ontario will swing across the CWA during
this time. Given the lack of any appreciable forcing ahead of this
trough in addition to the antecedent dry air mass, have slowed PoPs.
With the exception of the far west, precip should not reach the
ground until after midnight Wednesday/Thursday for the CWA.
Otherwise, have likely PoPs spreading west to east across the CWA
through Thursday evening. However, moisture availability still
remains a concern since better low-level moisture arrives only just
in time for the arrival of the trough across the central and east.
As for thunder chances, some embedded storms will be possible,
especially in the afternoon. Though deep layer shear will be
supportive of stronger storms, coverage of precip should be too much
for any cell to reach its full potential.

Friday through Monday: The trough will stall NE of Lake Superior on
Friday before drifting NE into Quebec by Sunday. With cyclonic flow
and low-level moisture lingering on Friday, a few showers will be
possible far east early. Otherwise, a pleasant holiday weekend is in
store, at least through Sunday. It should be noted that guidance is
beginning to latch onto the idea of a compact trough riding along
the northern edge of a central Plains ridge on the 4th, bringing
some convective activity into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes. Still a ways out, but worth keeping an eye on over the
coming week given potential impacts for holiday activities.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Dry air and high pressure will bring clear skies and dry
weather through the TAF period.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 506 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Expect light winds less than 15 kts today into Thu as high pressure
settles across the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front crossing later
Thu into Thu night will bring NW winds to 20 kts into Fri, strongest
over the east half. Winds will diminish to less than 15 kts late Fri
into Sat as high pressure moves across.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Kluber
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