Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 192003
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NAM ADVERTISES A CLOSED 500 MB
LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOWLY THE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD.

NAM CONTINUES TO KEEP SOME WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO THE SAME THING. BASICALLY...WILL BE DAMP AND CLOUDY WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING...THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE
AROUND. WILL IGNORE THE DRIZZLE THOUGH IN THE WEATHER AS THE RAIN
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE AND WILL GO WITH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THEM TONIGHT.
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING OUT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PULLS OUT...SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD OVER MUCH
OF THE U.P. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING) BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAINS INTO FRIDAY. THE DRY PERIOD WILL BE AIDED BY THE WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS THAT RIDGING OCCURS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EJECT OUT A COUPLE PIECES OF ENERGY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE
THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW (AND WARM FRONT) ARE...AND IT
IS LARGELY TIED INTO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. AT THIS
POINT...THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER (KEEPS THE WARM FRONT
SOUTH OF THE CWA DUE TO WEAKER SHORTWAVE UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY) WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...ALONG WITH THE 12Z GEM/NAM...BRING THE WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THINK THE NON GFS CONSENSUS IS THE WAY
TO GO AT THIS POINT AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT. THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN KEEP
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON CONVECTION FIRING IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMUM IS LOCATED. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS IN THAT AREA...WHICH BASED OFF STORM MOTION
VECTORS WOULD TRY TO LIFT THEM EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE FRONT
WHILE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WOULD
HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SEEING THESE STRONGER STORMS HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

ONCE THAT WAVE DECAYS AND SLIDES NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON OTHER WAVES EJECTING OUT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
RIGHT OVER THE U.P. THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST.
WITH THAT RIDGE AXIS...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR DRIER WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE SLIDES NORTHEAST
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT IT TO BE FAIRLY MUGGY OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND....ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. AFTER THE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINING IN THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THIS PERIOD WITH NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

KEPT IN FOG OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL LAKE GIVEN ARRIVAL OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED AREA OF LOWER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LINGERING
COOLEST DEEPER WATER. OTHERWISE... EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07





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