Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 250720
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

WV IMAGERY RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
GREAT LAKES ATOP A RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE OR REMNANTS OF THE MCV FROM EARLIER TODAY THAT BROUGHT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH UPPER MI HAS LIMITED
SFC HEATING AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. CLEARING WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-
1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR WEST. A SHRTWV OVER NRN MN ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT INTO NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

EXPECT THAT THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV EDGING INTO UPPER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP BTWN 21Z-00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT
AND STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV ARRIVES...TSRA COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED. ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA AFTER 06Z WITH CLEARING MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SUNSHINE AND MIXING WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 16C
SUPPORT MAX READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS
FAVORED BY NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL PERSIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FCST PD (SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. A FEW OF
THE MODELS GENERATE UP TO 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE WEST HALF BUT FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT SHRA SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY FCST. WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
UPPER MI WITH 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
COULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN 8H TEMPS CLIMB TO 20-22C. HOW WARM THE HIGH
TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. IF WE GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE...IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI COULD REACH THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE OF MODELS KICKING OFF WAA SHRA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DEPICT DRIER CONDITIONS
UNDER RIDGING INTO TUESDAY SUGGESTING GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA NEXT WEEK WILL BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PROPELS A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. LAYER PWATS
NEARLY TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES OF 800-1500
J/KG WOULD INDICATE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. FRONT EXITING EAST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW LINGERING CONVECTION OVER ERN CWA TO END BY WED AFTERNOON.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS DEPICT SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL PUSH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SHOW ABSENCE OF GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. 8H THERMAL RIDGE
OF 18-20C AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY
PROVIDED CLOUDS DON`T MOVE IN TOO EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPES
OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES WILL
WARRANT THUNDER MENTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
HAS ENDED AT KIWD AND KCMX. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS REST OF
THE NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AT ALL THE TAF SITES BUT DRY AIR
SWEEPING IN THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
RETURN CONDITIONS TO VFR. ONLY OTHER ISSUE FOR REST OF THE DAY WILL
BE GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLY OVER 20 KTS AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WRLY 15-20KTS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUE KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 15KTS. ANY FOG OVER LAKE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB


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