Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 131205 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
605 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A weaker low level drainage wind again expected in Albuquerque`s N
valley early this morning as an upper level trough over the NW US
and an upper high E of NM continue to draw a moist low level flow
northward into the state. A few patches of low clouds and fog are
still possible along and E of the Pecos River and S of the Caprock
early this morning, but they should burn off by mid morning. This
afternoon and evening, SCT to ISOLD showers and thunderstorms will
develop from the S central mountains NEWD and eastward across the E
central and SE plains. A few of these cells could linger into the
late night hours tonight. Areas of low clouds and fog are likely to
return to SE areas late tonight into Saturday morning, possibly
impacting ROW.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Overall quiet weather pattern through next week. There will be two
opportunities for precipitation. They will be this afternoon into
Saturday night and late next week. Southwest flow today, then a short
wave trough will pass to our north Saturday with the winds aloft
going zonal Saturday, then northwesterly Sunday. A potent back door
cold front will plow south across the eastern plains Saturday evening
and pour into the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday morning. A ridge of
high pressure will build to our west Monday then cross NM Tuesday.
An upper level disturbance may bring a little rain late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another mild mid October day coming up with highs above normal area
wide. Moderate breezes will again favor the western and northern
mountains and the northeast. Meanwhile low level moisture will
continue to stream in from the south, with enough to finally generate
a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the south central
mountains and highlands. They will expand northeast tonight then
diminish in coverage Saturday as dry air races into the state from
the northwest. Models agree on a more northward push of the moisture
and resulting precipitation, so we have expanded coverage up to Santa
Rosa and Tucumcari tonight while increasing POPs farther south. Also
increased POPs in the south central mountains and expanded coverage
north to the south central highlands for this afternoon. Coverage
Saturday will shrink to include just southern Lincoln, Chaves and
Roosevelt Counties. High Saturday will be cooler in most areas,
especially the northwest, but highs will still be mostly near to
above normal.

A fast moving and potent back door cold front is still on track to
dive south through the eastern plains and west to the central
mountains early Saturday night, then spill into the Rio Grande valley
late Saturday night. Models are 3 or more hours faster with the
front, bringing it through Clayton before 6pm MDT Saturday and into
Albuquerque shortly after midnight early Sunday morning. It will be
much cooler, by 20 degrees or more, in the east Sunday, around 10
degrees cooler in the central zones and 0 to 5 degrees cooler in the
west. Unfortunately, no precipitation will follow the front.

A ridge of high pressure will build to our west Monday and cross NM
Tuesday. It will bring sunshine, milder temperatures, and more dry
weather. The high will shift east Wednesday as a weak short wave
trough crosses the Rockies. Another dry and warm day with above
normal highs.

Models diverge greatly for the end of next week. The GFS and CMC
bring a trough across NM next Friday, the GFS the stronger of the
two. The ECMWF waits to bring a weak trough through next weekend.
Only the GFS has some decent QPF for the southwest and northern
mountains.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level trough will pass east southeastward from the Pacific
Northwest today across the northern and central Rockies on Saturday,
before ejecting eastward onto the Great Plains Saturday night. The
polar jet stream will cross CO in the process, inducing breezy
conditions over the northern mountains and northeast highlands
today. Breezy to windy conditions will then become a bit more
widespread over northern NM on Saturday. The system will also send a
Pacific cold front across western portions of the forecast area with
a northwesterly wind shift on Saturday, then a windy back door cold
front southward through the eastern plains Saturday night.
Occasional gusts to 50 mph are expected near the eastern border with
Texas Saturday night. Drier air with the Pacific front on Saturday
will combine with the stronger winds to produce a few hours of
locally critical fire weather conditions across portions of northern
NM Saturday afternoon.  High temperatures varying from a few to
around 14 degrees above normal today will trend downward Saturday
and especially Sunday, when readings will bottom out a few to 13
degrees below normal across northern and eastern areas. With the
cooler temperatures on Sunday will come widespread poor ventilation.

The upper trough passing north of NM will draw moisture into the
state today with a small chance for showers and thunderstorms over
south central and southeast parts of the fire weather forecast area
this afternoon through saturday night.

A ridge of high pressure will build over NM aloft Monday and
Tuesday, before a weak trough crosses the central and southern
Rockies Wednesday. Under the ridge temperatures will begin to trend
upward Monday afternoon, reaching above normal pretty much areawide
Tuesday afternoon. Broad coverage of fair to poor ventilation will
persist through Tuesday, before improving with gustier winds under
the trough on Wednesday.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A weaker low level drainage wind again expected in Albuquerque`s N
valley early Friday morning as an upper level trough over the NW US
and an upper high E of NM continue to draw a moist low level flow
northward into the state. Areas of MVFR and IFR conditions in low
clouds are expected E of the Pecos River Valley and S of the Caprock
early Friday morning. Some of these could work their way over ROW,
but confidence was too low to forecast a broken ceiling in this set
of TAFs. By Friday afternoon and evening, SCT to ISOLD showers and
thunderstorms will develop from the S central mountains NEWD and
eastward across the E central and SE plains. A few of these cells
could linger into the late night hours Friday night.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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