Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 272238
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
338 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL USHER ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY NOT RISE
ABOVE FREEZING FOR 2 OR 3 DAYS NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING A FEW INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH
SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE TUESDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD
VARY FROM 20 TO 34 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST AND 5 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST. CLAYTON WILL PROBABLY
DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING
AGAIN UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW TEENS
IN CLAYTON ON TUESDAY. TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS AND PORTALES MAY ALSO
HAVE PERSISTENT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR ROSWELL THIS
WEEK...BUT THE 1050-1059 MB SURFACE HIGH IN MONTANA COULD EASILY
PUSH THE POOL OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT FAR SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BRISK EAST CANYON WIND IS ALSO
EXPECTED FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT ENOUGH QPF FOR SOME BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA
SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY
FARTHER SOUTH AROUND MID WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SE ZONES. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS
DONT SHOW A WARM WEDGE ABOVE THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING CLOVIS...PORTALES AND
ROSWELL WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

THE UPPER LOW CROSSING OVER THE NEW YEARS HOLIDAY COULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER A BROAD AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH
ALL THE COLD AIR IN PLACE FROM THE EARLY WEEK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST NEAR TERM. GRADUAL
DRYING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE THE
LOWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY SLOT EFFECTS
THUS LOWER RH. CANT RULE OUT SOME UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE MID SLOPE
HIGHLANDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE VALUES SHOULD BE ABOVE 20
PCT. SNOW MELT WILL ALSO MAKE DEWPOINT FORECASTING TRICKY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GO ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL GRADIENT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES. STILL LOOKING AT BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES AS WELL AS AREAS TO THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE I40 CORRIDOR.
GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME WEAKER ON MONDAY AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
BLASTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. DESPITE THE INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PALTRY ON SUNDAY
THANKS TO POOR MIXING. IMPROVING RATES ON MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED
MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODERATELY STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE THE
ARCTIC BLAST FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND A MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER LOW POSITION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER LAS VEGAS NV. THEY SPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION INTO
WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS IT EASTWARD
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING IN THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WHICH IS QUITE DIFFERENT
THAN THE GFS. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE.
THIS IS A ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
REGARDLESS OF THE STORM TRACK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
VENTILATION WILL VARY DUE TO POSITION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH
WILL INITIALLY BE SHALLOW AND THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. VENTILATION RATES ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY DECENT DURING THE WEEK. LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IMPACTED MORE WITH LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. TOUGH WEEK TO HANG
YOUR HAT ON A VENTILATION FORECAST. LOCATION WILL BE
KEY...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER YOU GO.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
TRICKY AVIATION FCST WITH LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS HOLDING IN AT
FMN/LVS/TCC AND QUITE POSSIBLY ROW. UNSURE TIMING OF WHEN THE LOW
CIGS WILL BREAK AT THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES BUT SUSPECT IN THE
NEXT 2 TO 4 HRS. THE LONGER THE LOW CIGS REMAIN...THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR REFORMATION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL DRYING. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER SFC AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY LESSEN LOW CIG CHANCES TONIGHT
AT LVS/TCC BUT LARGE AREA OF SNOW COVER MAY VERY WELL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST...THUS KEEPING SOME SORT OF POTENTIAL. FMN ALSO
TRICKY FOR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS OVER GUP/FMN
TONIGHT SHOULD LOWER THE POTENTIAL. WILL BE MONITORING
ACCORDINGLY.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................   5  30  12  35 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  -2  25  -2  30 /   5   0  10  10
CUBA............................  -2  28  11  32 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................   0  32   7  35 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................   3  29  11  34 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................   1  32   7  38 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................   4  34  18  39 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  13  42  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA........................... -12  22   1  26 /   5   0  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................   3  28  16  31 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................   7  30  17  32 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -10  24   4  24 /   0   0   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  -5  22   0  21 /   0   5  10  20
ANGEL FIRE...................... -15  25 -12  25 /   0   0   5  20
TAOS............................  -3  26   5  28 /   5   0   5  10
MORA............................   0  32  15  31 /   0   0   5  10
ESPANOLA........................   9  31  16  36 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................   6  27  18  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................   8  29  14  35 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........   9  31  23  39 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  14  33  20  42 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  17  34  21  42 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  15  34  22  42 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  16  35  17  44 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  14  34  22  41 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  13  39  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........   9  30  19  37 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  10  30  20  38 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............   9  30  11  36 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................   9  29  16  34 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  10  32  19  39 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  16  37  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  17  36  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  -1  34  13  24 /   0   0   0  30
RATON...........................  -1  35   8  27 /   0   0   0  30
SPRINGER........................   4  37   9  31 /   0   0   0  20
LAS VEGAS.......................   8  40  14  35 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  13  37  17  29 /   0   0   0  10
ROY.............................   7  37  15  32 /   0   0   0  10
CONCHAS.........................  13  45  20  40 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  13  47  18  40 /   0   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  17  44  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  18  45  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  16  46  22  47 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  21  47  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  17  45  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  18  43  27  49 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.