Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 202336 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016
00Z TAF CYCLE
Main aviation weather concern this evening is potential
thunderstorm impacts at KABQ, KAEG, and KLVS where MVFR conditions
are possible with small hail and wind gusts between 30-40kts.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to persist overnight. MVFR
cigs may develop overnight at KLVS, KROW and/or KTCC, but
forecaster confidence too low to include in TAFs. Sunday afternoon
is looking more active than this afternoon, with potential for
thunderstorm impacts at just about any TAF site although the best
chances will be at KLVS and KSAF.
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016...
Showers and thunderstorms will be most numerous over the western two
thirds of the state tonight, Sunday and into Monday. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with some of the activity although showers
and storms may be faster moving by Monday. There may be a downtick
in rain chances Tuesday then an increase Wednesday into Thursday as
another cold front plunges through the eastern plains. A disturbance
swinging eastward from the Great Basin near the end of next week
will keep storms in the forecast. High temperatures will be near to
below average for most locales next week.
Showers and storms developed over the higher terrain of the west and
north again today, and just getting going over the south central and
central highlands. Movement is diverse, with more of a southerly
motion with the northern and western NM cells, and the cells in the
south central trending towards the east. As suspected the east for
the most part remains too stable for the moment to support
convection, although it`s starting to erode away as the afternoon
progresses and some existing cells may drift towards the Pecos
Valley. Not confident if there will be a blanket of low clouds
tonight in the southeast/east central or along the east slopes of
the central mt chain as low clouds were spottier than expected this
morning in the wake of the front.
Sunday and Monday may be more active but models don`t inspire much
confidence in the upper air pattern and how the weak upper trough
progress early next week. Didn`t modify the pops for that period
much due to the uncertainty, which are focused from the southwest
mountains to the central mountain chain. While storm motion to be
rather slow Sunday, it is forecast to pick up from west to east
Monday and moreso Tuesday. However, locally heavy rain will be a
concern Sunday into Monday. The upper trough position Tuesday now
hints the northwest and southwest portions of the forecast area will
be favored for rain, which is a change from the previous
indications. Another cold front is forecast to plunge into the
eastern plains Wednesday and Wednesday night, so the central and
east look to be highlighted then. The front pushes toward the
Continental Divide so Thursday may see a similar pattern of showers
and storms as today. Upper high center is progged to build to our
west late next weekend but showers and storms will continue to roam
the region. High temperatures next week will be near to below
average for most locales.
In the wake of the back door cold front that pushed south and west
overnight and early this morning, stable conditions were found
across the eastern plains, allowing the focus for showers and
thunderstorms across the western 2/3rds of the state. Storms were
generally moving toward the south and southeast around 10 mph. If
enough destabilization occurs, some storms may move over the high
plains late this aftn or this evening. Locally heavy rain remains
possible. Overnight RH recoveries will be excellent for all but the
far northwest corner where fair to good recoveries will prevail.
Sunday looks to be a bit more active than today overall, but still
focused across western and central NM. Heavy rain will remain a
concern. Monday and Tuesday will be tricky in terms of how much
convection will occur. Yesterday, models indicated a sharp trough
crossing the state on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Today, though the
timing is similar, models are showing a much flatter trough. Thus,
instead of continuously pulling moisture up from the south, westerly
flow before and during the trough passage will actually bring in
drier air. Therefore, Monday and Tuesday do not appear to be as
active as indicated yesterday. Since models have been flip-flopping,
confidence is fairly low at this time, especially since added lift
from the trough passage mainly Tuesday, could help initiate storms,
and mid level dry air could allow for some strong storms to develop.
What storms do form will continue to favor the western 2/3rds of the
Behind the trough passage, another back door front will slide down
the plains Wednesday and Wed night. This will increase potential for
storms across the east. The front should at least squeak through
the gaps of the central mountain chain as it pushes westward early
Thursday. Thursday and Friday should remain very active with low
level moisture in southeasterly flow is advected into the area.
Temperatures should largely remain below normal throughout the week.
Ventilation rates will begin to improve on Sunday, though some
spotty poor ventilation will persist across western and central NM.
Vent rates will continue to increase Monday and Tuesday with nearly
all areas seeing excellent ventilation Tuesday. The back door front
will lower vent rates on Wednesday into the poor category across and
just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns. Good or better vent rates
should finish out the work week.