Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192107
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
207 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern through next weekend. Trough over the Great
Basin will move across AZ tonight then lift northeast Tuesday. Wind,
rain, snow and much colder air on tap for tonight into Tuesday. Next
short wave trough to impact NM Wednesday into Thursday, and this
trough looks more potent. A third trough over the Great Basin Friday
may close of as it crosses NM Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation enhancing across northern and central NM this afternoon
and will peak tonight before diminishing Tuesday. Mountain snow and
lowland rain this evening, but lowering snow levels during the night
may bring a little snow to the western and central valleys and in the
northeast. Not much snow accumulation, but a flash freeze could cause
any water on roads to quickly ice over, making then treacherous for a
time later tonight. Strong, potentially damaging winds continue to
roar over many areas, with the higher terrain generally seeing the
highest gusts. Strong winds will continue into the night. Turning
much colder from west to east tonight into Tuesday as a cold front
blasts across the state. It should reach ABQ around or shortly after
midnight. The back door cold front drop south through the east
Tuesday night.

The Wednesday/Thursday time period is not longer looking mostly dry.
Another short wave trough digging into the Great Basin Wednesday will
draw more moisture north into NM with another round of precipitation
for Wednesday through Thursday. The northern mountains will get the
most QPF and there could be substantial snowfall. Temperatures will
remain below normal both days.

A third system will reach the GReat Basin Thursday, possibly
developing a closed low. It will approach NM Friday, cross the state
Friday night and move east Saturday. Another round of precipitation
will be possible for the west and north high terrain Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong winds will continue across the forecast area through the rest
of today, diminishing in valley areas overnight, and persisting
across the central mtn chain and central highlands into Tue morning.
The Pacific cold front will begin entering into western NM by sunset
with snow showers filling in over lower elevations across the NW
plateau, reaching the RGV by roughly 3am. Valley snow will be
possible at ABQ and SAF with the frontal passage, with light
accumulations of up to an inch in the foothills. The frontal band
will diminish as it exits east of the ctrl mtn chain. High snow
amounts of 6-12" through the rest of this storm event will be
possible atop the northern mtn peaks.

Much colder and drier air will advect into the region Tue behind the
front, with highs 10-20F cooler from today`s highs. Many areas
across western and northern NM will struggle to break freezing,
leaving snow accumulations on the ground. Vent rates will also fall
to fair for most areas with excellent remaining along the ctrl mtn
chain. A backdoor front will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air
to eastern NM Wed dropping vent rates to poor. Fair to excellent
vent rates will remain west of the central mtns. Winds veer
south by late Wed through Thu bringing return flow across the east
and up the RGV. RH recoveries Wed night will be very good. Another
round of snow will occur across the northern mtns Wed into early
Thu.

The next Pacific storm system enters into the picture Fri, bringing
with it another round of breezy SW winds and winter precipitation
this weekend. The GFS is a bit stronger closing off this system with
a slower progression across NM Sat. The ECMWF keeps it as an open
wave Sat. Either way, the forecast showers another round of
beneficial wetting precipitation across the forecast area this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A strong cold front approaching from the west is bringing high winds
across the forecast area today. Wind gusts today will reach up to
35-45kts at most TAF sites, and as high as 50-55kts at KGUP and KLVS
this afternoon. Mtn obscurations will be common today, persisting
overnight into Tue morning. Blowing dust and HZ will also be possible
ahead of the front and where precipitation does not occur. VCSH will
exist ahead of the front at KGUP, KFMN, and KLVS, with snow showers
with the frontal passage later this evening across western TAF
locations, reaching KABQ, KSAF, KAEG by 06Z-09Z. Snow showers will
diminish by the time the front reaches east of the central mtn chain.
Winds weaken by Tue morning, although they will remain breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  21  35   9  43 /  40  10   0   5
Dulce...........................  17  32  -1  37 /  70  40   5  20
Cuba............................  18  32   7  36 /  70  20   0  10
Gallup..........................  14  33   3  41 /  60  20   0   5
El Morro........................  12  33   0  41 /  60  20   0   5
Grants..........................  17  36   7  44 /  50  20   0   5
Quemado.........................  22  36  11  41 /  50  10   0   5
Glenwood........................  28  45  22  50 /  50  10   0  10
Chama...........................  13  26  -3  32 /  80  40   5  30
Los Alamos......................  25  38  13  39 /  60  20   0  10
Pecos...........................  23  36   9  37 /  40  10   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  18  29   4  33 /  70  20   0  10
Red River.......................  15  23   5  27 /  70  20   0  10
Angel Fire......................  14  28  -8  32 /  50  20   0  10
Taos............................  17  34   3  37 /  70  10   0   5
Mora............................  22  37   7  37 /  30   5   0  10
Espanola........................  28  42  16  44 /  50  10   0   5
Santa Fe........................  25  36  16  37 /  60  10   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  24  39  14  40 /  50  10   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  29  42  21  44 /  40  10   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  45  23  47 /  30  10   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  46  18  48 /  30  10   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  28  45  20  46 /  40  10   0  20
Los Lunas.......................  24  48  13  49 /  30  10   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  30  44  22  46 /  40  10   0  20
Socorro.........................  34  51  24  50 /  20  10   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  24  39  14  40 /  50  20   0  20
Tijeras.........................  23  40  13  42 /  40  10   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  43  10  44 /  20  10   0  10
Clines Corners..................  24  39  14  38 /  30  10   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  30  45  21  44 /  20  20   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  34  48  25  48 /  20  10   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  30  45  23  43 /  30  20   0  10
Capulin.........................  24  41   9  34 /  30   5   0   5
Raton...........................  23  42   8  37 /  30   5   0   5
Springer........................  27  45  12  40 /  30   5   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  24  39   9  36 /  30   5   0   5
Clayton.........................  30  46  10  33 /  20   5   0   5
Roy.............................  30  46  11  35 /  20   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  37  52  19  42 /  20   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  32  50  17  42 /  20   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  38  57  17  42 /  20   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  37  59  22  41 /  10   0   0   5
Portales........................  39  61  23  44 /   5   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  35  55  21  44 /  10   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  39  63  30  49 /   5   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  38  56  28  47 /  10   5   0   5
Elk.............................  36  52  27  47 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
NMZ523-524.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ501-507-516>520-522-525-530-534>539.

High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
NMZ515-521-527>529-531>533.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ502-505-506-512>514.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ503-504-508-510-511.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Tuesday
for the following zones... NMZ512>514-516.

High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for the following zones...
 NMZ526-540.

&&

$$

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