Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 291143 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
443 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
Mountain obscurations will persist this morning, then mostly
confined to the Northern Mountains this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple of
exceptions. A brief period of MVFR conditions in light snow is
possible at KSAF and KLVS later this morning and into the early
afternoon hours. Flow in the lower atmosphere will be more out of
the northwest today with significantly lower speeds as the core of
stronger winds aloft shift over southern New Mexico and exit out
across west Texas.
.PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016...
A cold week is in store as a deep upper level trough ushers in the
coldest air of the season today. Temperatures will warm slightly
Thursday but still remain below average for late November. The
next storm system to impact the area is expected Friday and
Saturday. Uncertainty remains rather high for this storm system
as weather prediction models remain at odds with how this feature
will evolve as it drops south through Arizona. Models agree that
conditions will remain cold with high temperatures well below
average both Friday and Saturday.
00z models now picking up on a closed circulation aloft over the
Four Corners. Both GFS and NAM bring this closed upper low
southeast across central NM during the day. Increased snow shower
chances slightly across mainly the higher terrain for today with
-31C cold core at 500mb moving overhead. Otherwise main weather
story today will be the cold. Moderate northwest winds add to the
chill, particularly in a swath from the northwest corner
southeastward to the southeast plains. The deep upper trough
begins to slide ewd tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures warm
slightly Wednesday but still remain below average across the east
and well below average across the west.
Flow aloft backs to wly Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of another deep upper trough deepening across California and the
Great Basin. GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement but still
differ with how much the flow aloft backs over NM. ECMWF is more
due southerly with the mid and upper level flow on the east side
of the trough/low, getting upglide snow going across much of
western and northern NM Friday and across the east Friday night.
GFS on the other hand brings the southerly flow and snow in
across southern and eastern NM Saturday. Sided once again with the
more consistent ECMWF, bringing snow into the west and north
Friday and across southeast areas Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF are
quite cold for Friday and Saturday, modifying temps Sunday.
Next cold upper trough/closed low is on track for Tuesday or
Wednesday next week. GFS develops a deep closed low over AZ
Wednesday while the ECMWF keeps this feature an open wave and more
progressive. Either way, the very active pattern looks like it
will continue through next week.
A shortwave trough will move over Northern New Mexico today as the
core of strong winds aloft exits the state to the southeast.
Additional snow accumulations will focus over the Northern Mountains
where the steepest lapse rates will reside. Otherwise, vent rates
will be a mixed bag of poor to good north and generally good to
excellent south. Cold air advection will continue today, with
daytime temperatures generally 10-20 degrees below normal.
Below normal temperatures will persist through the end of the week
and into the weekend, thanks in part to another cold strong front
forecast to push through Friday. An upper low is forecast to dive
quickly south across Arizona at the same time and result in a brief
period of upslope flow with decent wetting precipitation potential
Fri/Sat. Both the 12z ECMWF and GFS show the upper low diving way
south over Mexico and dry air moving across New Mexico by late
Vent rates should improve early next week as stronger winds aloft
move over the area and a lee side trough deepens in advance of the
next system, which may bring a round of wetting precipitation by the
middle of next week.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for the
following zones... NMZ501>507-510-511.