Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211115 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
515 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017


NW flow alf. Return flow of low lvl moisture into the ern plains to
strengthen next 24 hrs. Lcl MVFR cigs thru the Pecos Vly KATS vcnty
thru KROW to vcnty KSXU as well as in the KCAO vcnty til 16Z. Isold
to sct showers and tstms developing aft 18Z along and east of the
central mt chain. Isold severe tstms with wind gusts to 50kt and
large hail possible ovr portions of ne and east central NM aft 18Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...223 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017...
Moisture returns through the short term forecast, while the extended
will be mostly dry and warm. Northwest flow aloft with low level
southerly return flow moisture will generate some thunderstorms today
through Tuesday, mainly from the central mountains east to the TX
border. Any storm today could turn severe in the northeast, and
across most of the eastern plains Monday. A back door cold front
Monday night will leave the east cooler and unsettled on Tuesday. An
easterly gap wind into the Rio Grande Valley early Tuesday will
deliver a little cooler air as well. Dry and warmer weather will be
on tap for Wednesday and Thursday, with those dry conditions
continuing through the weekend while temperatures level off Friday
and Saturday. Another back door cold front will lead to cooler
temperatures across the east next Sunday.


The leading edge of low clouds is slowly advancing north from west
TX, indicating the area of higher dewpoints and low level moisture
that will surge into eastern NM today and hang around through
Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will erupt this afternoon into
tonight across northeast and south central zones of the ABQ county
warning area. A couple of the storms could turn severe in the
northeast late today into early tonight, and across much of the
eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Despite the moisture
and resulting cloud cover, highs today will be noticeably warmer than
Saturday, rising closer to normal. The warming trend will continue
Monday in the west while the east is slightly cooler.

A potent back door cold front will race south and west across eastern
NM Monday night and probably squeeze through the central mountain
gaps and canyons late Monday night into early Tuesday. Moisture will
linger in the east behind the front with another round of showers and
storms, favoring the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast. Highs
Tuesday will be mostly cooler, especially in the east.

A ridge of high pressure will build over NM Wednesday then rapidly
shift east Thursday. Increasing west, then southwest winds aloft
will pump in warmer and drier air for the second half of the work
week. Then a weak short wave trough aloft and surface back door cold
front will bring some cooling, mainly to the east, over the weekend.
While Saturday should be dry, Sunday could find showers and storms
brewing over the east Sunday into Sunday night. CHJ


Northwest flow aloft will bring a couple of disturbances over
northern and central New Mexico today through Monday. At the same
time, low level south and southeast winds will strengthen,
transporting moisture into eastern and portions of southern New
Mexico. The combination of these features will result in increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms today through Monday from the
central mountain chain across the eastern plains. Typical for the
season, a few strong to severe storms are possible over portions of
the northeast and east central this afternoon and evening, and again
Monday across the eastern plains.

Warmer today although highs will remain near to about 5 degrees below
average. Vent rates to be good to excellent.

Rounds of convection to the east may occasionally shove moisture
westward into the Rio Grande Valley and toward the Contdvd tonight
through Tuesday. However, drier northwest to northerly winds aloft
will help at least some of that moisture mix out, and any convection
that develops as a result of the moisture slosh may be drier with
gusty winds, rather than wet. While wide variations in humidity are
likely between the Rio Grande Valley and the Contdvd early this week,
trends are for areas of fair to poor overnight recoveries especially
for locales along and west of the Contdvd through Tuesday night.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will be near to below average, with more
cooling over the east on Tuesday, in the wake of a cold front. The
latest forecast models indicate more of a northerly gradient due to
the front, so are not as favorable for forecasting a gusty east wind
into the Rio Grande Valley Monday night/Tuesday. As mentioned
previously, any east winds during this time could be more
convectively driven. Vent rates Monday and Tuesday will be excellent
west and central with some areas of fair to poor rates east.

A drier and windier regime is forecast for mid to late this week as
an upper low/trough swings through the northern and central Rockies.
High temperatures finally warm to near or even above average, and
forecast models indicate any low level moisture will be shoved out
of the state. Widespread Haines of 6 is forecast Wednesday through
Friday, and as westerly winds strengthen Thursday and Friday,
widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop.
Another cold front impacting the eastern plains late in the upcoming
weekend looks to return moisture to that part of the state.




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