Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011016
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
316 AM MST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will warm somewhat today as the flow aloft over New
Mexico remains westerly. The next storm system to impact the
region remains on track for Friday and Saturday. This storm will
take shape over Arizona Thursday night and Friday while at the
same time a backdoor cold front moves in from the northeast. The
combination of these two features will result in chances for snow
for most locations with the best chances of significant
accumulations in the south-central mountains. A warming trend is
expected to get underway Sunday and Monday, ahead of another storm
system on tap for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow aloft today will allow for several degrees of warming,
primarily across the eastern plains. All eyes then turn to an
upper level trough taking shape across Arizona and the Great Basin
Thursday night and Friday. Models are starting to come into better
agreement with respect to how the trough/closed low will evolve
Friday and Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF carve out a deep trough
across AZ by late-day Friday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front
moves in late Thursday night and Friday morning. The combination
of relatively moist southwest flow aloft over cold air advection
in the low levels will result in light snow across much of the
northern half of the state Friday and across much of central and
eastern NM Friday night into Saturday. GFS brings up a 110kt jet
streak Saturday morning which results in a large band/arc of snow
across central NM with light rain across the eastern plains (below
about 5500 ft). ECMWF is similar but not quite as far north with
precip. Either way, confidence is increasing that this
trough/closed low will produce rain and snow for most areas
Friday or Saturday with the best chances for significant
snow accumulation across the south-central mountains. Held off on
any winter highlights at this point given the significant changes
between the 12z and 00z model runs.

GFS is slower and farther north with the above mentioned upper
low Saturday night and Sunday, keeping mainly rain going across
the southeast plains through Sunday. ECMWF dries things out faster
so split the difference btwn the two models and kept slight
chance to chance PoPs in for mainly Chaves and Roosevelt counties
Saturday night and Sunday. Despite the clouds and possible precip across
the southeast from the GFS, both models suggest a weak warming
trend will get underway Sunday and continue into Monday.

Next very cold upper level trough remains on track for Tuesday.
Both models generate very strong frontogenesis across the
northwest third to half of the state Tuesday. ECMWF progs a
remarkable temperature gradient/baroclinic zone at 700mb across NM
at 00z Wednesday. While the far southeast plains are forecast to
be near +1C (34F) at 700mb (~10k ft MSL), the far NW corner is
forecast to be around -15C (5F). The best performing temperature
guidance suggests that high temperatures Wednesday will range from
15 to 25 degrees below average for early December. While it`s of
course no guarantee these predictions will pan out, the next 7
days look very promising for significant snowfall for the ski
areas throughout the state (Fri & Sat of for Ski Apache and Tues &
Tues night for northern areas). Wax em` if you got em`.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a very cold start to the day, highs are forecast several
degrees above yesterday`s although still generally 5-10 degrees
below normal. Vent rates will take a dive today and be poor to fair
as winds decrease and back in response to a developing trough across
the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. Friday features a backdoor
cold front and developing upper low over Arizona diving south toward
northern Mexico. The backdoor cold front will keep daytime
temperatures below normal, but increasing winds will allow for some
improvement to vent rates. Chances for wetting precipitation will be
on the uptrend, peaking Friday night into Saturday morning and
favoring south central and southeast portions of the forecast area.
The upper low will be slow to pull east out of Mexico across west
Texas late in the weekend, but a drying/warming trend will begin
Sunday as ridging begins to penetrate into northern New Mexico. Vent
rates look to be poor most areas through the weekend.

Winds will be on the uptrend Monday, with a deepening lee side
trough and the polar jet on approach from over northern California
and the Great Basin. Vent rates should improve Monday given a 00z
medium range model consensus solution, but will jump up and be good
to excellent areawide by Tuesday as a cold front pushes east across
the area with strong winds. The 00z GFS and ECMWF agree on the cold
front Tuesday, but depart with a trailing trough going into the
middle of next week. The ECMWF is the colder/snowier solution, with
an anomalously cold airmass building in and persisting into late
next week.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Breezy to occasionally windy conditions will persist around KCQC
overnight. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions will prevail.
Mid and upper level clouds will continue to increase and thicken
through Thursday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  19  38  22 /   0   0  20  30
Dulce...........................  32   5  34  12 /   0   0  40  40
Cuba............................  33  15  34  13 /   0   5  30  30
Gallup..........................  37  14  36  16 /   0   0  20  30
El Morro........................  34  13  35  14 /   0  10  20  30
Grants..........................  37  14  36  16 /   0   5  20  30
Quemado.........................  39  17  40  18 /   0   5  10  20
Glenwood........................  52  30  51  31 /   0   0   0  20
Chama...........................  29  10  31  10 /   0   0  50  50
Los Alamos......................  35  22  35  21 /   0   5  40  40
Pecos...........................  38  21  34  20 /   0   0  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  32  11  31  10 /   0   0  50  50
Red River.......................  27   9  24   9 /   0   5  60  60
Angel Fire......................  31   0  27  10 /   0   5  50  50
Taos............................  33  12  34  13 /   0   0  40  40
Mora............................  39  18  32  16 /   0   0  50  60
Espanola........................  40  23  40  23 /   0   0  30  30
Santa Fe........................  37  22  36  23 /   0   0  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  39  21  39  21 /   0   0  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  40  26  42  28 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  28  44  28 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  23  46  25 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  25  45  26 /   0   0  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  44  20  47  23 /   0   0  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  43  26  45  27 /   0   0  10  20
Socorro.........................  48  29  50  30 /   0   0   5  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  24  37  23 /   0   0  30  50
Tijeras.........................  40  23  39  26 /   0   0  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  21  40  22 /   0   0  20  40
Clines Corners..................  40  21  35  21 /   0   0  20  60
Gran Quivira....................  43  25  43  24 /   0   0  20  50
Carrizozo.......................  48  29  49  28 /   0   0   5  50
Ruidoso.........................  46  26  45  24 /   0   0   5  60
Capulin.........................  39  18  33  16 /   0   0  40  40
Raton...........................  42  14  35  12 /   0   0  40  30
Springer........................  45  17  38  16 /   0   0  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  43  18  34  17 /   0   0  30  40
Clayton.........................  44  22  40  23 /   0   0  20  40
Roy.............................  42  19  37  19 /   0   0  30  40
Conchas.........................  48  28  43  29 /   0   0  30  40
Santa Rosa......................  51  27  43  26 /   0   0  20  50
Tucumcari.......................  50  23  46  26 /   0   0  30  50
Clovis..........................  51  27  46  29 /   0   0  30  60
Portales........................  53  28  47  31 /   0   0  30  60
Fort Sumner.....................  53  28  48  29 /   0   0  20  50
Roswell.........................  55  29  53  33 /   0   0  20  60
Picacho.........................  53  30  48  30 /   0   0   5  60
Elk.............................  51  30  47  28 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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