Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011848
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE LATE THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. DROPPED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR RATON RIDGE BUT LET THE
OTHER ZONES RIDE WITH ECHOES PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WARMED
SOME HIGHS UP CENTRAL AND SOUTH...BUT MAYBE NOT QUITE ENOUGH.
UPDATED ZFP/WSW ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1126 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...PUSHING MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO. PRECIPITATION REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...AND PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KFMN...KGUP...KSKX...KAXX...AND OTHER NEARBY
LOCALES THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS
OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO THE IFR CATEGORY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO. A CANOPY OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO BLANKET MOST OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS ONLY BRIEFLY ERODING AWAY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...REINFORCING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS WINDS MORE EASTERLY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...351 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING EVEN FURTHER. MEANWHILE...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND LOOKS TO GET
REINFORCED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG TO BECOME
EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW
EXPECTED. A DRIER BUT MUCH COLDER PATTERN DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVE AND STILL DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH. 500MB HEIGHT RISES
OF 2-4 DAM INDICATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOW STRONGLY FORCED BY OROGRAPHICS AND ALIGNED ALONG A FAIRLY
WEAK/WAAVY MID-LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE STRETCHING FROM FROM FAR WC
NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST. FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN
A FAST/MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME TO RESULT IN MORE SNOW FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THAT HAVE BEEN BURIED BY 4-5
FEET DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO. AND LAPSE RATES WILL ONLY STEEPEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY THE NW THIRD. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEYOND TODAY...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A VERY BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
REDEVELOPS WITH THE COLD TROUGH PASSAGE/STRONG UPPER JET MONDAY PM
INTO TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD AIR MASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO MAKE FOR AN EXCEPTIONALLY CHALLENING
FORECAST REGARDING NOT ONLY TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO PRECIP TYPE AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
MODELS NOT SURPRISINGLY HAVE BEEN FAR TOO AGRESSIVE SCRUBBING THE
COLDER AIR EASTWARD...AND LITTLE REASON NOT TO KEEP THE FAR EAST
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. THAT SAID...SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED SWLY
FOR MOST AREAS ON THE PLAINS AS OF THIS WRITING AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS NOT INDICATING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON POSTING A NEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD ARGUE FOR SUBTLE
BACKING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING INTO TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
WITH SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR INDICATED BY THE MODELS. SO A
LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR ABOVE MENTION
PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR FREEZIGN FOG AND POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX.

AS MENTIONED...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 150KT JET MAX
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD MONDAY PM INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
BE THE NEXT AND LAST WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOW IN THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE....WITH ACCUMULTING SNOW RETURNING
FOR EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION ENSUES WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS
PLUNGING SOUTHWARD. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
FEEL LIKE ANYTHING BUT EARLY MARCH. 700MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -20C
ACROSS THE NC/NE ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH ANY PRECIP LIMITED TO MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
SW/SC AREAS THURSDAY AND NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NM THRU EARLY
THIS WEEK. THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN/SNOW IS SURGING NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER FOR CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY AS STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE. SURFACE HUMIDITIES ARE VERY HIGH IN ALL AREAS
WITH SNOW MELT AND MOIST ADVECTION. SNOW LEVELS ARE RISING FAST OVER
NORTHERN NM AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT AS SNOW ALSO
TAPERS OFF. MUCH STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WARMING TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST. DESPITE THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL IN MOST AREAS.

THE MOIST CONVEYOR WILL SHARPEN ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS THE MAIN ROUND OF VERY HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BE
SCREAMING AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE WEST. THE BACK DOOR PORTION OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL RACE DOWN THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND DELIVER AN ARCTIC
PUNCH ONCE AGAIN TO THE EAST ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. VENT RATES THAT
WILL AVERAGE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL TREND BACK
TO POOR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR A FEW DAYS.

CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOW AS MODELS SUGGEST A COUPLE
RELATIVELY DRY UPPER WAVES DIVING THROUGH THE STATE ON NORTHWEST
FLOW. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ANY ONE OF THESE WAVES TO DIG INTO
THE AREA AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. SNOWPACK WILL BATTLE SUBLIMATION BUT AT LEAST WINDS DONT LOOK
VERY SIGNIFICANT. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515.

&&

$$







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