Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272344 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016


NW winds aloft on the back side of the exiting upper low will
gradually weaken and transition to south to southwest during the
next 24 hrs. Sufficient mid level moisture and instability for aoa
sct-bkn130 along with isold to sct showers and tstms with erratic
wind gusts to 35kt, across the northeast third of NM before 04Z,
slowly diminishing thereafter. Brief and localized mt top
obscurations may occur with the convection, but overall vfr
conditions expected.


Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across northern New Mexico
late this afternoon will taper off through the evening. Temperatures
will warm up over Memorial Day weekend with lots of 70`s and 80`s,
and even a few low 90s around Roswell. Low level moisture will slosh
around eastern New Mexico over the weekend with the best chance for
thunderstorms along the Texas state line Sunday evening. The chance
for showers and storms will continue over the mountains and eastern
New Mexico for much of next week. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal through the week.


An unseasonably cool upper trough over the southern Rockies will
move east into the plains Saturday. Latest 20Z LAPS data confirms an
unstable atmosphere w/ steep lapse rates beneath the cold core.
Radar reflectivity indicating sct showers and isold storms w/
banded structure across northern NM. This activity is shown by the
latest RAP & 18Z NAM solutions to taper off thru this evening. QPF
values will be generally less than 0.10". Expect another chilly
night behind the departing upper trough w/ readings near to
slightly below normal.

Upper flow will back from northwest to zonal Saturday as a weak and
fast moving shortwave ridge crests over the area. Temperatures will
trend 5 to 10 degrees warmer. A round of virga showers is expected
to build over the northern high terrain w/ gusty outflow winds.
Upper flow will back more S/SW Saturday night as a weak upper low
takes shape over southern CA. This will draw low-level moisture
northwest across southeast NM in the form of low clouds and patchy
drizzle, fog for Sunday morning. A dryslot still in place in the
mid/upper levels will sharpen a dryline along the TX state line
late Sunday. SPC outlooks show a marginal risk for severe storms
along the border. The overall pattern changes little Monday w/ low
level moisture sloshing along the TX border while the west remains
warm and very dry.

Changes to more widespread precip chances and cooler temperatures
arrive Tuesday across the plains as the weak upper wave drifts east
along the NM/Mexico border through Thursday. The ECMWF is the most
aggressive w/ deepening low level moisture over the plains Tuesday
while the GFS waits til early Wednesday. Storm clusters over the
plains will increase the chance for deeper moisture to slosh west
into the Rio Grande Valley on convective outflows. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge building east into NM behind the upper wave will set
the stage for terrain driven circulations and efficient moisture
recycling. Steering flow in this pattern will be generally north
to south. There are some notable model differences regarding
moisture availability and placement of upper level features next
week so POPs will remain in the chance category for now.



While there is some modest degree of moisture crossing the north
third of NM in the wnw flow aloft and a few showers and
thunderstorms have developed there, very few, if any, of them will
produce wetting precip. The activity will die out between sunset
and about 11 pm MDT, but before then some erratic and fairly
strong gusts can be expected with the stronger showers and storms.

The flow aloft is forecast to transition to dry southwesterly from
west to east during the day Saturday as another upper level trough
slowly approaches from CA. The flow aloft backs enough to allow a
moisture bearing southeasterly low level flow to develop across
eastern NM Saturday night. Gulf moisture and thus the dryline will
push northwest into east NM with this pattern change. A few strong
to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few strong and
just possibly severe, will likely develop across some portion of
east NM. The ECMWF and GFS extended model fcsts remain divided as
to whether any thunderstorm potential exists for east NM Mon. The
GFS says no while the ECMWF does indicate some storm potential.
Both models still bring a backdoor cold front into the state Tue
with the ECMWF significantly faster than the GFS. This feature and
an upper lvl trough very slowly crossing the area will likely
trigger showers and storms across the eastern plains and and northern
mountains Tue night, expanding somewhat westward Wed. Thu and Fri
should continue active with low level moisture combining with daytime
heating and northwest flow aloft. Moisture recycling and increasingly
intense late spring daytime heating should allow for isolated to
scattered shower and storm development into the weekend, favoring the
afternoons and evenings. Ventilation rates remain in the very good to
excellent category today through Monday. The backdoor cold front and
precipitation drop rates somewhat across ne NM Tue and areawide Wed.





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