Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

MVFR cigs are lifting across the eastern plains this morning...with
another round of showers and storms this afternoon. A few storms are
likely to become severe producing large hail and wind gusts up to 50
kts. Timing the wind shifts with WNW winds mixing to the surface at
KLVS and KROW this afternoon was particularly difficult. A backdoor
front will shift winds again to the N and NE overnight starting from
the NE plains at KTCC and KLVS first, then to KSAF and KROW, with
gap winds expected at KABQ by 09Z and persisting through the
morning. Another round of MVFR cigs, possible IFR in some spots, are
likely across the eastern plains tomorrow morning including KLVS,



.PREV DISCUSSION...249 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017...
Some showers and a few thunderstorms continue over eastern NM early
this morning. Backdoor cold front will continue to press south this
morning across the northeast and east central plains and be the focus
for more convection today into tonight, some of which will probably
be severe across the lowlands. Another short wave trough will drop
south into eastern NM tonight with a better push south and west in
regards to the back door front. East canyon winds are likely into the
Rio Grande Valley early Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure
will build toward NM from the west Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
provide a warming and drying trend. The ridge will shift east late
this week as a couple of short wave troughs sweep across the state
into the weekend. It should remain dry and warm through Friday then
precipitation chances increase this weekend along with some cooling,
mainly in the east.


Ongoing convection across portions of eastern NM early this morning.
Sign of things to come as it should be active in the east today. Wind
shift will continue to press south today and be the focus for storms.
Severe weather looking likely on the eastern plains this afternoon
and evening with good shear, instability and moisture to work with.
Activity will continue into tonight with an additional short wave
trough heading south into NM. Reinforcing wind shift to the N and NE
tonight will make it to the central mountains and probably spill into
the RGV toward daybreak.

Less active for Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds onto the
west coast. This ridge will continue to move east through Wednesday
and provide a warming and drying trend. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will remain over central and eastern areas Tuesday
but Wednesday should be dry with highs above normal in the west and
near normal in the east.

The ridge quickly flattens and moves east later this week as a series
of short wave troughs cross NM late week through the weekend. The dry
weather should hold on Thursday and Friday, with increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.
Thursday will continue warm but then a general cooling trend is
forecast from Friday right through next Monday. highs will be near
normal Friday and Saturday, then below normal Sunday and Monday. CHJ


Drier northwest to north flow aloft to persist today through Tuesday
while low level moisture from the central mountain chain over the
plains will allow development of showers and thunderstorms. Some of
the storms could become strong to severe with large hail and strong
and variable winds today and this evening mainly along and east of
the Pecos Valley. Cell motion today and tonight will be generally to
the east and southeast, but could at times be more erratic due to
potential for development along outflow boundaries, as well as along
a stronger frontal boundary to push into the eastern plains later

High temperatures today will range from near normal west to 5 to 10
degrees below normal east. Vent rates west and central will be
excellent while fair to poor rates dominate portions of the east
central and northeast.

The humidity forecast for central New Mexico, especially the Rio
Grande Valley, is low confidence as moisture sloshes back and forth
today through Tuesday, leading to potentially wide and localized
variations in humidities. In addition, drier northwest to northerly
winds aloft will battle any increase in moisture, so any convection
that develops as a result of the moisture slosh may be drier with
gusty winds, rather than wet. The northwest to northerly flow aloft
may also help limit the extent of a westerly push into the Rio
Grande Valley by tonight`s frontal boundary, which may not occur
until early Tuesday morning, and could be rather short lived. This
doesn`t take into account the possibility of convection pushing the
east wind in sooner however. Farther west, portions of the southwest
and west central will continue to see areas of fair to poor
overnight humidity recoveries through Tuesday night. Temperatures
Tuesday will be cooler east with little change west. Vent rates will
be good to excellent for most locales with gusty northwest winds
developing over the west Tuesday afternoon, and where spotty
critical conditions may develop for one to 3 hours.

A drier and windier forecast still good for mid to late this week as
an upper low/trough swings through the northern and central Rockies.
High temperatures finally warm to near or above average Wednesday
and Thursday, and forecast models indicate any low level moisture
will be shoved out of the state. Widespread Haines of 6 is forecast
Wednesday through Friday. As westerly winds strengthen Thursday and
Friday, widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely to
develop. Have continued to undercut guidance for the dew
point/humidity forecast, especially Thursday/Friday due to the
impressively high mixing heights, up to about 500 mb.

Moisture looks to remain scoured out in the west for the upcoming
weekend as flow aloft transitions to nwly so fair to poor overnight
recoveries a good bet in the west, but low level moisture to return
to the northeast corner Saturday then spread down the eastern plains




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