Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 140907
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A very slow moving winter storm will bring many rounds of
precipitation to New Mexico through Wednesday of next week.
Additionally, a strong backdoor cold front will plow through the
plains and gaps of the Central Mountain Chain tonight through
Friday. This front will bring strong to damaging winds across much
of central New Mexico, to include the Albuquerque Metro.
Meanwhile, rain and snow will be expanding across much of the
state. This first round of precipitation will persist through
Saturday morning and near-blizzard conditions will be possible
around the Continental Divide and Tijeras Canyon. After a brief
lull in the action, another round of precipitation is expected
Sunday and Monday before tapering off through Wednesday. The
highest elevations may see 2 to 3 feet of snow before the storm
system finally ejects eastward next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024


At 00Z, a potent upper level low was over far northeast Nevada per
the upper air analysis and the latest water vapor satellite imagery
showed it dropping south quickly to over Las Vegas (NV). The polar
jet stream was located over NM, but is forecast to pull out to the
northeast today as the upper low continues to sink south. At the
same time, a backdoor cold front will take shape and be drawn
southwest across the area by the upper low, which is forecast to
stop it`s southward progress tonight as the next polar jet maxima
rounds the base of the low over the northern Baja Peninsula and
northwest Mexico. The airmass behind the backdoor cold front isn`t
very cold and will be characterized by dewpoint temperatures in the
30s. In addition, most of the colder air aloft will stay closer to
the upper low circulation, so this adds up to relatively high snow
levels through Friday. Still, snow will pile up in Sangre De Cristos
and over Raton Pass today and then expand overnight into Friday
morning as forcing associated with the backdoor front and isentropic
upglide increase. We`ve upgraded most of the Winter Storm Watch to
a Warning, but have opted for an Advisory for the Central Highlands
and Glorieta Pass due to warmer conditions initially and sub-warning
amounts forecast. We`ve also added the Upper Rio Grande Valley and
Southwest Mountains as an Advisory, although most impacts will
likely be delayed until later on Friday. The backdoor cold front is
still on track to plow through the central mountain chain this
evening, with speeds increasing overnight into Friday morning. We`ve
upgraded the High Wind Watch to a Warning and are still expecting
gusts to near 65 mph at the base of Tijeras Pass into the middle
RGV. This east wind event won`t rival the infamous September 8th,
2020 port-a-potty event here in Albuquerque, but will definitely be
a high-end east wind event. Strong east canyon winds will continue
into Friday evening. We`ve also added the lower RGV, South Central
Highlands and Upper Tularosa Valley to a Wind Advisory for those
same east canyon/gap winds, which should stay below warning
threshold. The next polar jet maxima will nose into southwest
portions of our forecast area late Friday, bringing a round of
heavier precipitation with thunder to far western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The east canyon winds across the Albuquerque Metro and areas to
the south will slowly decrease Friday night, though gusty winds
will generally persist through at least midnight. Meanwhile,
precipitation is expected to increase in coverage and intensity
Friday night across western NM as the upper level jet rounds the
cut off low and pushes into NM from the southwest. Western NM
should find itself within the left exit region of the jet plus
isentropic lift will continue as well. Snow levels are expected to
be around 6500-7000 feet. Areas above that should rack up several
inches of snow Friday night and continuing into Saturday morning.
Through the morning hours on Saturday, the precipitation will
shift slowly northeastward and weaken with time. However, light
snowfall may persist across the northern high terrain through the
day on Saturday.

All models have slightly differing opinions on the placement of
the upper low beyond Saturday, and then equally struggle with when
and how the low will eject next week. On Sunday, the upper low
should be meandering over AZ (though the GFS is a little more
bullish shifting it toward southwest NM). It looks like perhaps
another weak backdoor front will slide into the area as well,
though the winds may be more in response to the upper low
position. Regardless, strong upper level diffluence, persistent
isentropic lift, and favorable jet dynamics will yield another
healthy round of precipitation on Sunday. In fact, this
precipitation may linger through Tuesday as the low meanders
around AZ, though slowly filling with time. Snow levels again
look to be around 7kft on average but locations above this
elevation could see up to another foot of snowfall while lower
elevations receive some much needed rainfall. Depending on how
today and tomorrow`s round of precipitation behaves, will be
watching for the potential for rain on snow at mid elevations.

The kicker system will move into the PacNW starting Wednesday and
our pesky upper low will finally start moving, though showers will
remain possible on Wednesday. Certainly going to be a wet week
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Low level moisture will result in the development and expansion of
MVFR cigs across western NM, but are only forecast to impact KGUP.
Elsewhere, high probabilities of VFR conditions persisting
overnight, although MVFR cigs are forecast to move into KLVS
behind a backdoor cold front after sunrise. The backdoor front
will result in a wind shift at KTCC later Thursday morning and may
bring in MVFR cigs as well. The backdoor cold front will blast
through the central mountain chain Thursday evening and bring
strong east winds to KSAF and KABQ. However, dangerous east
canyon winds are forecast at KABQ, although the strongest winds
likely won`t hit until after the end of the TAF period, when gusts
to between 50-60kts are likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. The combination of a backdoor cold front and
slowly approaching upper level low will bring higher humidity,
cooler temperatures and good chances for wetting precipitation to
the area through the weekend and into early next week. Significant
snow accumulations are likely in the mountains. Vent rates will be
good today, except behind a backdoor cold front across northeast NM.
Vent rates will gradually trend down over the weekend and into early
next week and be poor most areas by Tuesday. Daytime temperatures
will remain below normal through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  54  37  54  36 /  30  80  30  70
Dulce...........................  48  31  52  29 /  50  70  50  50
Cuba............................  47  33  46  28 /  30  60  30  60
Gallup..........................  49  34  48  29 /  20  70  60  90
El Morro........................  47  33  42  28 /  30  70  70  80
Grants..........................  50  34  44  28 /  20  70  60  80
Quemado.........................  50  35  48  27 /  20  60  80  80
Magdalena.......................  53  36  46  30 /  10  70  60  80
Datil...........................  50  34  44  29 /  20  70  70  80
Reserve.........................  56  31  52  29 /  20  50  80  80
Glenwood........................  60  42  57  35 /  20  50  80  80
Chama...........................  43  27  45  25 /  70  80  70  50
Los Alamos......................  48  32  45  29 /  10  70  60  50
Pecos...........................  49  30  41  24 /  30  80  70  60
Cerro/Questa....................  41  31  41  26 /  60  80  70  30
Red River.......................  36  22  35  19 /  80  90  80  30
Angel Fire......................  37  20  34  17 /  70  90  80  40
Taos............................  47  27  45  24 /  30  70  60  30
Mora............................  44  26  36  20 /  40  90  80  40
Espanola........................  56  33  52  29 /  10  50  40  40
Santa Fe........................  51  34  46  30 /  20  70  60  60
Santa Fe Airport................  54  33  49  31 /  10  70  60  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  39  47  33 /   5  70  40  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  39  50  34 /  10  60  40  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  39  52  34 /  10  60  40  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  39  50  35 /  10  70  50  60
Belen...........................  60  39  53  34 /   5  60  30  70
Bernalillo......................  58  39  51  35 /  10  60  50  60
Bosque Farms....................  59  38  52  33 /   5  60  30  70
Corrales........................  58  38  52  34 /  10  60  50  60
Los Lunas.......................  59  38  52  34 /   5  60  30  70
Placitas........................  54  37  46  33 /  10  70  50  60
Rio Rancho......................  57  39  50  34 /  10  70  50  60
Socorro.........................  63  41  56  37 /   5  60  50  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  33  40  30 /  10  80  70  70
Tijeras.........................  53  34  42  30 /  10  80  60  70
Edgewood........................  53  33  41  29 /  10  80  80  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  30  42  27 /   5  70  70  60
Clines Corners..................  51  28  36  25 /  10  90  80  60
Mountainair.....................  54  33  41  28 /   5  80  70  80
Gran Quivira....................  55  31  44  29 /   5  70  60  80
Carrizozo.......................  59  39  49  30 /   0  50  40  70
Ruidoso.........................  53  31  39  27 /   5  80  70  70
Capulin.........................  37  26  35  26 /  80  80  80  20
Raton...........................  41  27  38  27 /  80  80  80  20
Springer........................  46  29  39  29 /  60  80  80  20
Las Vegas.......................  47  28  36  23 /  30  90  80  40
Clayton.........................  45  31  43  32 /  50  40  60  10
Roy.............................  47  31  39  29 /  30  50  70  30
Conchas.........................  58  33  44  34 /  20  40  60  40
Santa Rosa......................  59  34  42  32 /  10  50  70  50
Tucumcari.......................  59  35  46  34 /  10  30  60  30
Clovis..........................  64  36  48  36 /   5  20  60  40
Portales........................  67  36  49  35 /   0  20  60  40
Fort Sumner.....................  64  36  45  35 /   5  30  60  50
Roswell.........................  71  44  48  39 /   0  40  70  60
Picacho.........................  65  36  44  34 /   0  60  50  60
Elk.............................  63  35  43  31 /   0  60  60  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Saturday
for NMZ202-206-211-221-228-229.

High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday
night for NMZ207-219.

Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Friday
night for NMZ220-224-225.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT
Saturday for NMZ208-212-216-223.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Saturday
for NMZ210-213>215-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11


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