Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281809 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1209 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK WILL MIGRATE FROM SW AREAS THIS
AFTN...TO S CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
LATE TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE SW MTS.
DESPITE THE SPEED MAX IN THE POLAR JET OVERHEAD...SFC WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE FROM THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EVENING...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CENTRAL MTS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER
INTO LATE TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR TS/SHRA OVER NW AREAS TODAY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT CROSSES FROM THE W. A NELY WIND SHIFT ACROSS NE AREAS
TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND LOW
CLOUDS...TOO. A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...349 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A ROUGHLY 2 DAY BREAK POSSIBLE AROUND MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK THE NEXT 10 DAYS LOOK PRETTY ACTIVE WITH THREE STORM
SYSTEMS COMING ACROSS OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. FOR THE
MOST PART NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD DO THE
BEST AS FAR AS MOISTURE GOES...BUT FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE JUST
ABOUT EVERYONE WILL GET AT LEAST A MODEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
PROBABLY LONGER. THE FIRST STORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY THEN LIFT NE INTO CO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE WIND
THAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE...THOUGH NORTHERN AREAS
WILL SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN
SNOW. NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A FAIRLY SIMILAR PATH TO THE
FIRST OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WAFTING BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
MAKE BETTER PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE THIRD ONE
WILL IMPACT US LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TON OF ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND NOT ENOUGH TIME TO
GO INTO MUCH DETAIL. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT THREE POTENT LOWS ALOFT
WILL COME ACROSS OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE TODAY SHOULD BRING SOME DECENT QPF TO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
HIGH PEAKS MAINLY LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRI OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND PERHAPS FAR
EAST...BUT LITTLE TO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ELSEWHERE...SO DID BACK
OFF SOME...NOT DRASTICALLY...ON POPS AND QPF. EXPECT MORE HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW. DUE TO SMALL DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF POTENTIALLY
ADVISORY LVL SNOW IN N MTNS DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH ANY HIGHLIGHTS
THERE. DID ADD POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST SMALL HAIL
FOR ROUGHLY NE QUARTER OF NM FOR MAINLY TONIGHT...PARTLY DUE TO
SPC MARGINAL RISK THERE. HIGHS TODAY AND FRI WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW
NORMAL...MORE SO FRI. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY TODAY AND LESS SO
FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FIRE WX WATCH FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
RED FLAG WARNING. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

NEXT SYSTEM IS ADVERTISED TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK INTO
STATE SAT AFTN OR EVE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SAT NIGHT. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
S AND W ACROSS ERN NM SAT AND LOOKS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. THE COMBO OF THE MID AND
UPPER LVL LOW AND BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP OF THE FIRST TWO STORMS. MODELS
STILL DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE EXTENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
QPF...BUT ALL ARE PRETTY WIDESPREAD WITH IT. NORTH AND EAST STILL
LOOK MOST FAVORED SUN INTO MON. SNOWS MAY ALSO BE AT LEAST A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AND OR HEAVIER BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND MON.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING E THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER
DURING THIS TIME. THE THIRD STORM MAY IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIP AS IT
PROJECTS A STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKING SYSTEM. WE WILL
SEE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL ALIGN WITH GREATEST AREAL EXTENT AND FOR THE LONGEST
DURATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TO EXCLUDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS /GENERALLY ABOVE 8500 FEET/
OF THE SANDIA...MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS.  WILL UPGRADE
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING.

HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA ACROSS THE WEST AND OUTSIDE THE RED
FLAG WARNED AREA.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS FROM THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  EXCELLENT
VENT RATES TODAY WILL TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS NC AND ESPECIALLY NE
AREAS ON FRIDAY.

SLUGGISH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD OVER FAR NW
ARIZONA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR
SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY FRIDAY PM.
THIS LOW WILL NOT BE NEAR AS STRONG AS THE MOST RECENT ONE THAT
IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK BUT IT WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
AREAS TO INCLUDE SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.  SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
BARTLETT/JOHNSON MESAS NEAR THE NM/CO LINE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
RATON.

COOLER ON FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED GIVEN OVERALL LESS WINDINESS AND HIGHER MIN RH VALUES MOST.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED CONCERNS TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE STRONGEST WINDS TO LINGER.

THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING.  BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
STRONGER AND WETTER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  ONE IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THIS LATE
WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SEND A MUCH COOLER/MOIST EASTERLY PUSH TO THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING SETTING UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION.  STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL
VALLEY CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

VENT RATES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHERE THE AFFECTS OF COOLER AIR/FRONTS WILL LINGER. POOR
VENT RATES WILL THEN BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE EAST ON MONDAY BUT
GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER ACROSS THE WEST.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ106>108.

&&

$$


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