Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 302109
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME MOISTURE RECYCLING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH MTS WHERE A FEW
-SHRA/TSRA W/ GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH TO SW BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN
AFT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS KICKING OFF A RANDOM -TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  97  66  96 /  10  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  54  91  53  88 /  30  20  40  40
CUBA............................  57  89  57  85 /  20  40  60  60
GALLUP..........................  58  93  58  91 /  10  20  40  30
EL MORRO........................  56  90  56  87 /  20  40  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  92  59  90 /  10  20  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  90  59  87 /  20  30  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  59  91  58  90 /  20  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  50  83  51  81 /  30  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  90  63  86 /  20  50  50  60
PECOS...........................  58  87  59  83 /  20  60  70  80
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  81  54  78 /  20  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  48  74  46  73 /  30  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  52  75  51  73 /  30  70  70  80
TAOS............................  53  85  54  83 /  10  30  40  40
MORA............................  55  82  55  79 /  20  60  80  80
ESPANOLA........................  60  95  60  91 /  10  20  40  40
SANTA FE........................  61  88  62  86 /  10  40  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  92  63  89 /  10  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  94  68  91 /   5  20  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  96  70  93 /   5  10  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  95  68  94 /   5  10  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  96  69  93 /   5  10  50  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  97  68  95 /   0  10  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  98  68  94 /   5  10  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  66  98  68  96 /   0   5  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  91  62  87 /   5  20  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  62  94  63  90 /   5  20  70  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  91  57  88 /   5  20  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  89  61  85 /   5  20  70  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  89  62  86 /   5  10  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  90  65  90 /   5  10  30  40
RUIDOSO.........................  58  83  62  81 /   5  20  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  58  84  59  82 /  10  60  70  60
RATON...........................  57  87  57  84 /  10  60  60  60
SPRINGER........................  57  89  58  86 /  10  60  60  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  86  56  81 /  10  40  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  93  65  87 /  10  60  50  30
ROY.............................  61  90  62  85 /   5  60  60  50
CONCHAS.........................  66  98  68  93 /   5  20  50  50
SANTA ROSA......................  64  96  66  92 /   0  20  40  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  98  68  93 /   5  20  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  64  93  66  89 /   0  10  20  40
PORTALES........................  65  94  66  91 /   0   5  10  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  95  67  92 /   0  10  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  96 /   0   5  10  10
PICACHO.........................  60  93  63  91 /   0   5  10  30
ELK.............................  59  86  62  84 /   0   5  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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