Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 271745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$







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