Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 312104
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE LEVELING-OFF OR TRENDING BACK DOWN. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY MONDAY WITH MANY LOCALES
SEEING 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRY
WESTERLIES OVERTAKE THE STATE. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY AND
REENTER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH STREAMS NORTH
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TODAY WITH IMPROVED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALREADY DETECTED
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE IN SOCORRO COUNTY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE FROM 5-9PM BETWEEN THE RATON RIDGE
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION MAY LAST BEYOND SUNSET
THANKS TO DECENT SOUTHERLY LOW LAYER INFLOW. ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTURN WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT OVER THE STATE TOMORROW AND DRY AIR
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER ROUND OF
DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS GIVEN A SLIGHTLY DRIER
ATMOSPHERE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY`S. DRY WESTERLIES WILL OVERTAKE THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
90S AT MANY LOCALES. FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY THIS CALENDAR YEAR
FORECAST AT KABQ TUESDAY (91)...BUT WE`LL COME CLOSE MONDAY AT THE
SUNPORT. ROSWELL IS FORECAST TO BE 90+ DEGREES ALL WEEK...PEAKING
AT 100 ON WEDNESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP TUESDAY WILL BE
ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OR FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE OK/TX BORDERS.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A RELATIVELY DEEP
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
AND HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY PULLING TROPICAL
MOISTURE UP OVER THE REGION...WHETHER THAT BE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ANDRES OR THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE EAST OF ANDRES. WE
INTRODUCE POPS/WX BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS TRENDING DOWN BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
LOW TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR FRI-SUN AT THIS TIME.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE FIRED UP
OVER MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES. SOME OF THE CELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AS WELL AS THE MAGDALENA
AREA...CONTAIN WETTING RAIN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS DRIER AND A
MIX OF WET/DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH SOME OF
THE CELLS. CELL MOVEMENT PRIMARILY TOWARDS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY.
SIMILAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM IMPACT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD WARM/DRY SLIGHTLY MORE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LESS AND FAVOR SIMILAR TERRAIN AREAS. THE FOOTPRINT OF
WETTING RAIN SHOULD LESSEN A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AREAS AND FAVOR THE NE HIGHLANDS/NE PLAINS. THE STEERING FLOW WILL
BE MORE WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY THANKS TO A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN IN THE
RIDGE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP A BIT MORE. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE.

WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE CENTER GETS PUSHED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BY A
PACIFIC TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT FOUND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG BUT AT LEAST MODERATELY
STRONG. THE MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT HAINES VALUES PEAKING AROUND
6 FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT EVEN MORE.
SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY READINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THIS DAY...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE SOMETHING OUT
ACROSS THE FAR NE AND PERHAPS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BUT
PRETTY SMALL AREA AND LOW IN DURATION. FUELS ARE ALSO FAIRLY GREEN
SO THE THREAT OF LARGE FIRES IS PRETTY SMALL.

THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TRYING TO REESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL EXPAND
FURTHER EAST AND PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS. THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE CRITICALLY DRY BOTH
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DUE TO A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS...HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE HEATING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE A
LITTLE LESS ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.

LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE A WEATHER
TRANSITION. GFS REMAINS BULLISH WITH PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE HURRICANE OFF THE BAJA AND SHIFTING IT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FINALLY PICKING UP
ON THIS MOISTURE PUSH AS WELL ALTHOUGH DELAYS IT SOME. THE DRYLINE
SHOULD ALSO SHARPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE SIERRA MADRE. THUS...SEVERAL
MOISTURE SOURCES COULD BE TAPPED UNDER THIS SLOW MOVING PACIFIC
TROUGH/LOW SCENARIO. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOME SORT OF
MOISTURE PUSH BUT THE QUESTION REMAINS...HOW QUICKLY WILL THE CELLS
TRANSITION FROM THE DRIER VARIETY TO WETTER. EITHER WAY...THE BONE
DRY HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD EVENTUALLY RISE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BECOME MORE PREVALENT.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH/TS WILL FIRE UP...INITIALLY OVER THE MTNS...AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER RIDGE. CELLS WILL TEND TO BE HIT AND MISS SO USING VCSH FOR
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. DOES APPEAR THAT TCC/LVS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF TS IMPACTS SO INDICATED THAT WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SH.
BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CUMULUS FIELD CANT RULE OUT
IMPACTS AT SAF BUT MAINLY OUTFLOW WIND WITH A PASSING SH. USED
VCSH TO CAPTURE THAT ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING...CELLS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF ROW AND TO THE
SOUTH/WEST OF AEG/ABQ. WILL MONITOR ACCORDINGLY. LESS OF A CHANCE
FOR LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS. ONE
MODEL IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT BUT THREE
OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC SO WILL GO WITHOUT IN THE
18Z TERMINAL FORECAST ISSUANCE.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  90  52  89 /   5   5   5   0
DULCE...........................  44  85  44  83 /  10  10   5   0
CUBA............................  48  84  45  84 /  10  10  30   0
GALLUP..........................  48  86  44  86 /  10   5   5   0
EL MORRO........................  46  84  43  84 /  20  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  48  85  45  85 /  20  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  83  46  84 /  10  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  56  90  52  90 /  20  10   5   0
CHAMA...........................  41  78  39  80 /  20  20  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  83  53  84 /  40  40  20   0
PECOS...........................  52  82  51  84 /  30  20  30   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  79  43  81 /  20  30  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  39  70  40  74 /  30  50  30   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  38  73  39  77 /  30  30  30   0
TAOS............................  44  81  44  83 /  20  20  10   0
MORA............................  47  78  46  81 /  40  30  30   0
ESPANOLA........................  53  85  50  87 /  10  20  20   0
SANTA FE........................  55  84  52  84 /  20  20  20   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  53  86  51  87 /  10  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  87  58  89 /  10  10  30   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  88  60  91 /  10  10  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  57  90  57  92 /  10  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  89  59  90 /  10  10  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  90  56  92 /  10  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  59  88  58  89 /  10  10  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  60  90  58  92 /  20  20  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  55  83  54  85 /  20  20  30   0
TIJERAS.........................  54  85  53  86 /  20  20  30   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  48  85  49  87 /  10  20  30   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  84  52  84 /  10  20  30   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  84  55  86 /  10  20  30   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  86  57  88 /  10  10  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  81  54  84 /  20  30  30   5
CAPULIN.........................  52  81  52  86 /  30  30  30   5
RATON...........................  49  83  49  88 /  30  30  30   5
SPRINGER........................  50  84  50  89 /  30  20  30   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  83  50  85 /  30  20  30   0
CLAYTON.........................  56  84  58  91 /  30  20  30   5
ROY.............................  53  82  54  88 /  30  20  40   0
CONCHAS.........................  58  89  59  94 /  20  20  40   0
SANTA ROSA......................  56  90  57  94 /  20  20  40   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  91  61  96 /  20  20  40   5
CLOVIS..........................  57  87  58  90 /  20  20  30   5
PORTALES........................  59  88  60  91 /  10  20  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  90  59  95 /  20  20  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  59  93  62  98 /  10  20  30   5
PICACHO.........................  56  89  58  92 /  10  20  30   5
ELK.............................  56  84  57  88 /  20  30  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11


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