Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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097
FXUS65 KABQ 210537 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1037 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
High clouds will be prevalent tonight with winds aloft remaining
fairly strong from the northwest. Winds will be strongest near and
immediately downwind (east southeast) of the central mountain chain
of New Mexico where mountain wave activity will induce turbulence.
Wind gusts will occasionally reach 40 to 45 kt near/downwind of the
central mountain chain. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. A
cold front will invade New Mexico from the north early Tuesday
morning with a sharp wind shift to the N and NE with gusts of 25 to
35 kt developing across the eastern plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week
keeping the weather dry. A back door cold front will produce gusty
northeast winds across the eastern plains on Tuesday with speeds
peaking near 40 mph along the eastern border. After cooler
temperatures on Tuesday, readings will rebound during the latter half
of the work week. Some near record and record high temperatures will
be possible starting Wednesday west of the continental divide, before
spreading to include parts of the east Thursday and spreading even
more on Friday. Friday should be the warmest day of the week with
highs 13 to 23 degrees above normal and some readings near 80 degrees
on the eastern plains. Another back door cold front will drop
southward through the eastern plains Friday night, cooling
temperatures some across the east; however, high temperatures will
continue to be well above normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong ridge of high pressure that began to build over California
and Nevada today, will migrate gradually eastward over Arizona as the
week progresses, then across New Mexico this weekend. The ridge will
help keep the storm track north of New Mexico this week, but a
couple back door cold fronts will sag into the eastern plains:
a gusty one Tuesday, and the other one Friday night. Except for some
cooling with the cold fronts, high temperatures will generally be
above normal this week, especially during the latter half of the work
week when near record and record high temperatures are expected in
some areas. Despite some cooling across the plains behind Friday
night`s back door cold front, highs should continue to vary around 8
to 18 degrees above normal through the weekend.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dewpoints have plummeted across northern and central NM today with
RH dropping to less than 10 percent in many areas. A stout jet
stream is arching over the Pacific Northwest and diving into the
central to southern Rockies. Consequently, strong ridge top winds
have been mixing and spreading into the adjacent central highlands
and east central plains. This is leading to some marginal critical
conditions stretching along the Interstate 40 corridor from Clines
Corners to Santa Rosa. These critical conditions will slowly abate
into the evening, but some gusty ridge top winds will persist into
the overnight as the jet gradually shifts east. Poor RH recovery
will impact many central to eastern NM zones tonight into early
Tuesday morning.

Before the jet can fully shift east of NM, a potent disturbance
aloft will race southeastward in it, shoving a cold front southward
into the forecast area. This will bring gusty north winds into the
plains Tuesday, with a few hours of gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph,
primarily around midday. The front will bring a notable cooling
trend, mostly to eastern NM, but daytime highs will still remain
near to above normal. Winds will quickly diminish toward Tuesday
evening.

The ridge of high pressure over the Baja is still projected to
strengthen and dominate the weather over the American Southwest
Wednesday through the holiday weekend. Very warm, even record-
breaking temperatures, are expected for many zones with dry
conditions and generally light to moderate breezes. While no adverse
or critical fire weather is foreseen, smoke ventilation rates will
suffer with poor dispersion expected through most of the holiday
weekend.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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