Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 260940
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN STEERS RICH MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE SLOW MOVING
STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO GRADUALLY
MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST. WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS A FEW TO
14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN REBOUND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES TREND
DOWNWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN RECEIVING A
A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY THIS
EVENING SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TO
NEAR 1.4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COMBINE THE MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH BROAD SCALE ASCENT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ON WEST FACING SLOPES...SO WE ARE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS.

MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING VERY WELL ON WHETHER A DRY SLOT WILL
INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM THE WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME DRIER AIR DOES APPEAR
TO BE POOLING OFF THE CA COAST...AND ITS LOGICAL TO EXPECT
STRENGTHENING W AND NW WINDS ALOFT TO BRING THIS DRY AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WHERE THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY TAKE UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT TO CROSS. MODELS SUGGEST A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY MAY INJECT
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT UPSWING IN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS IS STILL ON TAP
TODAY. A DEEP SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PRODUCE ABUNDANT
PRECIP...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT THRU TONIGHT. ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING THRU THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. TOTAL PRECIP NUMBERS WILL AVERAGE 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15F BELOW
NORMAL. THIS WILL BE THE LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR AT LEAST
A WEEK...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS INVADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.

THE UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY THRU COLORADO WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SLOT SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAINFALL WILL STILL FIRE UP OVER THE PLAINS...HOWEVER
THE OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. MIN RH VALUES
WILL TREND DOWN AND TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WEST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL ADVERTISED TO SLIDE
DOWN THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS VIGOROUS AS
SOME PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE EAST AND THE CHANCES FOR A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
MIN RH VALUES AND TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN EVEN MORE FOR THE WEST...WITH
EVEN SOME NEAR BREEZY NW FLOW CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME QUASI-ZONAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DELIVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
AIR FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH SOME BREEZES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS BORDER. TEMPS WILL TREND
ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
INITIALLY BE REGULATED BY WET SOILS...BUT THEN EVENTUALLY FALL
INTO THE FAIR/GOOD RANGE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP COOL MIN
TEMPS OFF TO THE COOLEST READINGS SINCE EARLY SUMMER FOR THE NORTH
AND WEST.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT THE A RIDGE MAY
REDEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ALLOW ANOTHER MONSOON MOIST PLUME TO SLIDE
NORTH TOWARD NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT TROUGH
MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
WILL SUPPORT NORTHBOUND SURFACE TUG OF MOISTURE OUT OF MEXICO AND
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL TAFS PICKING UP
VCTS AND VCSH GROUPS FROM 18Z ONWARD TUE...WITH VCTS AT MAXIMUM
THUNDERSTORM LIKELIHOOD...WITH VCSH PLACE HOLDING FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CIGS LOWERING TO AOA BKN/OVC080
IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT FOR MT TOP OBSCURATION FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH RAPID START TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION LATE TUE MORNING SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST
FROM 00Z ONWARD TUE EVENING. SOME LOW CIG POTENTIAL FLAGGED WITH
SCT CLOUD GROUP IN TAFS AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG FROM 02Z ONWARD TUE
NIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF OVER THE EAST
BY 06Z...AS REMAINDER OF THE STATE CLEARS OUT WITH MT TOP
OBSCURATION REDEVELOPING WEST AND CENTRAL.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  83  54  82  53 /  60  60  20  10
DULCE...........................  75  48  78  44 /  60  60  30  20
CUBA............................  74  51  77  50 /  70  80  30  20
GALLUP..........................  75  50  80  50 /  80  60  20  10
EL MORRO........................  65  50  74  49 /  80  70  20  10
GRANTS..........................  73  54  76  52 /  70  60  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  67  52  77  51 /  80  70  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  79  52  84  51 /  60  60  20  10
CHAMA...........................  68  44  72  40 /  70  80  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  72  56  74  52 /  70  80  30  20
PECOS...........................  69  54  74  51 /  80  90  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  51  75  46 /  60  70  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  62  45  66  40 /  70  80  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  45  72  40 /  90  80  30  20
TAOS............................  73  51  76  45 /  70  60  20  20
MORA............................  71  52  77  48 /  80  90  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  78  55  80  51 /  60  70  20  20
SANTA FE........................  70  56  76  53 /  70  70  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  73  54  78  52 /  60  60  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  60  82  59 /  60  70  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  79  63  82  61 /  60  60  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  81  61  84  60 /  60  60  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  61  85  60 /  60  60  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  59  82  57 /  60  70  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  83  61  86  60 /  60  60  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  83  62  86  62 /  70  60  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  56  82  56 /  70  70  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  76  57  80  57 /  70  70  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  73  52  77  51 /  70  80  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  73  55  76  54 /  60  60  40  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  74  58  79  57 /  60  60  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  78  61  80  61 /  50  60  40  30
RUIDOSO.........................  72  55  74  54 /  70  60  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  75  55  79  53 /  60  60  30  30
RATON...........................  78  54  81  51 /  60  60  30  20
SPRINGER........................  79  56  82  52 /  60  60  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  54  78  51 /  70  60  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  84  63  86  61 /  40  60  30  30
ROY.............................  79  58  80  57 /  50  60  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  86  66  88  65 /  40  50  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  82  63  85  62 /  50  50  40  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  90  66  90  64 /  30  50  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  86  63  89  63 /  20  30  40  40
PORTALES........................  87  64  89  65 /  20  30  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  85  65  85  64 /  30  30  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  89  68  86  67 /  20  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  80  62  76  61 /  50  50  50  30
ELK.............................  76  59  72  58 /  60  60  60  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>527.

&&

$$

44




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