Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 032120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500 MB MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BUILDING CUMULUS TO SURVIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. BOTH NAM
AND GFS KEEP THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR TAKES OVER. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
UPPER HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO TWO MORE THAN TUESDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH GETS FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BY A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK TO THE SW MTNS. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
APPEARS TO RESULT IN A FULL FLEDGED SLY MONSOON PLUME AND ABOVE
AVG PWATS. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR SUNDAY. GFS ELONGATES THE UPPER
HIGH WWD...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND AMPLIFIES
AND SHIFTS THE HIGHER FARTHER EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OK/TX...RESULTING IN A VERY CLASSIC LOOKING DEEP MONSOON PLUME
SMACK DAB OVER NM. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DOMINATING NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR EXTENDED FROM TRINIDAD CO TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SILVER CITY.
WEST OF THIS LINE...SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED STORM INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEEPER MIXING HAS
ALLOWED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20MPH TO SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THE DIVIDE REGION. DEW POINTS ALREADY TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS
10 TO 12 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  FARTHER EAST...EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE COMING DAYS PARTICULARLY BEFORE
AND JUST AFTER PEAK MIXING PERIODS. AS WE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
DRYING EPISODE...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RAPIDLY LOWER FOR 1-3 HOURS
AROUND PEAK MIXING BEFORE REBOUNDING NEARLY AS RAPIDLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. EITHER WAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ANOTHER 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER TODAY AND A BIT FURTHER STILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE GRIDDED DEW POINT FORECASTS.

WIDENING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THURSDAY OWING TO THE
DRIER AIR MASS.  COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS...AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
INITIALLY WC/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN MORE OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS NARROW WITH
LESS HEAT TO END THE WEEK.

MODERATE HAINES VALUES TO EXPAND AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AND PREDOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 6 WILL DEVELOP OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. VERY GOOD OR BETTER
VENTILATION FOR TUESDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS TRANSPORT WINDS WEAKEN THOUGH STILL
GOOD OR BETTER FOR MAJORITY OF LOCALES. KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AIR MASS DRYING WEST TO EAST WILL GREATLY LIMIT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE NO MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT TERMINAL SITES. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVER SC/SE AND NE QUARTER WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA IMPACTING THE FAR NE
CORNER. WILL ALSO KEEP VC PLACEHOLDER AT KROW AS -SHRA/-TSRA ROLL
EASTWARD OFF THE TERRAIN. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  91  55  93 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  47  84  46  87 /  20   5   5   5
CUBA............................  52  81  54  84 /   5  10   0   5
GALLUP..........................  48  89  50  91 /   5   5   0   5
EL MORRO........................  49  83  50  86 /   5  10   0  10
GRANTS..........................  50  89  51  87 /   5   5   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  52  84  53  85 /   5  10   0  10
GLENWOOD........................  56  89  57  89 /   5   5   0   5
CHAMA...........................  46  77  46  80 /  30  10   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  82  58  86 /   5  20   5   5
PECOS...........................  55  83  57  85 /   5  10   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  78  48  80 /  30  10   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  46  71  42  74 /  40  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  72  44  76 /  20  10   5  20
TAOS............................  49  83  49  85 /   5  10   0   5
MORA............................  53  81  54  83 /  10  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  57  88  57  91 /   5   5   0   5
SANTA FE........................  58  84  60  86 /   5  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  87  56  89 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  90  63  92 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  92  66  94 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  94  61  96 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  93  64  95 /   5   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  92  59  94 /   5   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  64  95 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  65  95  63  97 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  59  87 /   5  10   0  10
TIJERAS.........................  56  87  55  89 /   5   5   0  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  88  50  89 /   5   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  85  59  86 /   5  10   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  87  60  89 /   5   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  91  64  92 /  10   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  60  83  61  84 /  10  10   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  57  84  59  87 /  50  20  20  10
RATON...........................  55  88  56  91 /  40  10  20  10
SPRINGER........................  56  89  57  91 /  20   5  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  86  56  88 /   5  10   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  62  91  64  92 /  50   5  10   5
ROY.............................  60  89  61  91 /  10   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  65  94  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  64  95  64  96 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  98  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  66  95  67  97 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  67  96  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  98  67  99 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  69 102  69 104 /  10   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  64  95  64  96 /  10   5   0   5
ELK.............................  63  87  64  88 /  10  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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