Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220555 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
REMAINING CONVECTION OVER EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS STORM OUTFLOWS MOVE INTO MODERATE SE
WINDS GENERATING LIFT AND MORE STORMS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED WEST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SURGE WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT/NEAR ALL SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER SUNSET. GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO
MIDDLE RG VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. KFMN LIKELY THE ONLY
SITE TO ESCAPE STORMS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...951 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
MODIFIED OVERNIGHT POPS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR-
TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME RATHER LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO FALL IN LINE WITH 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE. NUDGED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE EAST
AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE WHICH
WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH THE 599DM H5 HIGH LIFTING
NORTH INTO COLORADO. RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE
DURING THE EVENING. OUR 5KM LOCAL WRF SHOWS A FEW AREAS GETTING
HAMMERED DURING THE EVENING FROM TORRANCE TO VALENCIA AND SOCORRO
COUNTIES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...345 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN IT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY LOWER THAN SEASONAL THUNDERSTORM CROP ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH STORMS GENERALLY FAVORING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN GILA REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTING
FARTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SEE A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY LINGER IN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. A BACKDOOR FRONT OR TWO MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF NM...UP
SOMEWHAT THERE COMPARED TO SUN...BUT SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY LESS
THAN SUN ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...THE ROOSEVELT
AND EAST CHAVES COUNTY AREA PERHAPS ALSO LOCALLY MORE ACTIVE THAN
SUN. ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP A BIT FURTHER INTO THE EVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE...THOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LVL
DEWPOINTS MAY MAKE THAT A STRUGGLE. ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF THE EAST HALF OF FCST AREA FOR THIS
EVE...BUT STOPPED SHORT OF A FORMAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE.

THE HIGH CENTER ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EASE OVER TO SOUTH OR CENTRAL
COLORADO BY TUE AFTN OR NIGHT AND INCREASE TO OR VERY NEAR 600DAM
AT 500MB. MAY SEE A MODEST TO MODERATE INCREASE IN CONVECTION TUE
AFTN CENTRAL TO WEST NM AS HIGH BEGINS TO WOBBLE TO THE N OR NW
WHICH WILL START TO SHIFT BEST CONVECTION POTENTIAL A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE WEST. WITH SOME ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
EXPECTED WED INTO THU ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST
AREA AND ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO DIP BACK BELOW
NORMAL...THIS AREA WILL SEE EITHER NO STORMS OR CERTAINLY FEWER
THAN TODAY. THE UPPER HIGH IS THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK OVER
OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...
ESPECIALLY SE HALF. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR
FRONT OR TWO BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN
SAT NIGHT AND NEXT MON NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION UPTICK TO AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH LOOSELY CENTERED OVER NC NEW MEXICO TO STRENGTHEN AND
SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER SC/SW COLORADO THROUGH TUE BEFORE BRIEFLY
GETTING SHUNTED EASTWARD WED/THU.  MODELS THEN INDICATE THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER QUICKLY REESTABLISHING NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY WEEK/S END
EVENTUALLY OPENING THE DOOR FOR ANOTHER MODERATE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARKED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF NEW MEXICO TODAY PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF A WEAK POCKET OF
INSTABILITY SLOWLY ROTATING SEWD IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH.  THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BRING A BOOST TO STORM COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
STEERING WINDS FROM NE TO SW WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY THE SANTA FE AND TAOS AREAS AS WELL AS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE
CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER SRN COLORADO AND
FORCE BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FIELDS FARTHER WEST WITH THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS BY MID-WEEK NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS IN THE EAST.  OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND IN FACT WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL
ONWARD TREND IN COVERAGE BY THU/FRI AS MOISTURE LEVELS DIMINISH.  A
CORRESPONDING UPWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S COMMON.

ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS COMBINED WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES INDICES THAT WILL PREDOMINATE IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.  WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN-DRIVEN OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS AND DRIER-TYPE STORM ACTIVITY HERE. KJ

&&

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

GUYER










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