Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221732 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1132 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Patchy cirrus are sliding over NM today with dry northwest flow in
place. A few light breezes will peak up aft 21Z but diminish quickly
around sunset. A back door cold front will arrive over northeastern
NM aft 12Z Monday with a sharp northeast wind shift.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...230 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
After a cool start to the day, temperatures will rise to near
average values by afternoon. A warming trend will get underway Monday
with temperatures rising 5 to 10 degrees above today`s levels. A dry
backdoor front remains on track to move through eastern New Mexico
Monday night and through the remainder of the state Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures will result behind the front for Tuesday, mainly
for central and eastern areas. The temperature roller coaster
continues Wednesday with temperatures warming once again, especially
east. A much stronger backdoor cold front is forecast to move
through the region Thursday night and Friday, resulting in colder
temperatures and chances for snow across the northeast half of the
state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy north and northwest winds keeping temperatures from tanking
so far this morning. Once the winds drop off closer to sunrise,
expecting temps to crater given the bone dry airmass in place.
Current dewpoint temperature at ABQ is 0F with negative values in the
higher terrain. Despite the cool/cold start to the morning,
temperatures will rise to near average levels for the date today and
then above average Monday. Backdoor cold front remains on schedule
for eastern NM Monday night and across central and western areas
Tuesday. Majority of the cooling will occur across central and
eastern NM Tuesday. East canyon winds into the mid RGV in the 15 to
25 mph range a good bet Monday night and Tuesday morning. Temps
rebound by 5 to 15 degrees central and east Wednesday with a few
degrees of warming west.

Dry conditions with above average temperatures continue Thursday,
before the bottom drops out Thursday night and Friday. Models
continue idea of bringing a deep/cold upper level trough from the
Yukon southeastward through the northern Rockies and eastern Great
Basin and into NM Thursday night and Friday. 00Z GFS has trended
toward the 00Z ECMWF solution of colder and wetter. ECMWF continues
to be the deeper/colder model, progging -16C temps at 700mb over far
northeast NM Friday 18Z. That`s cold for mid winter let alone late
October. Continued trend of increasing precipitation chances and
lowering temps across the northeast half or so of the state Thursday
night into Friday. If the ECMWF solution/forecast holds, even the
lower elevations of the mid and lower RGV could be looking at a
little white stuff Friday. Upper trough axis moves through Friday
night a hard freeze looking likely areawide.

Temperatures modify somewhat Saturday and moreso Sunday. Models
agree that dry north to northwest flow aloft moves overhead for early
next week.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As the trough aloft exits to the east and the ridge of high pressure
swells over the Baja and CA coast, the northwest flow aloft will
slowly relax over NM today. This will lead to more tranquil
conditions today with lower mixing heights and overall lighter wind
speeds throughout the boundary layer. As a result, ventilation rates
will suffer with pockets of poor dispersion expected today.
Temperatures this afternoon should bounce back within a couple
degrees of seasonal normals for late October, and RH will plummet to
the 10 to 20 percent range with the central to western zones
remaining the driest.

As the upper level pattern amplifies over the continental U.S. the
next cold front, will push into eastern NM Monday and eventually
into central parts of the state Monday night. Outside of the far
northeast corner of NM, temperatures will rebound a few to several
degrees, despite the winds shifting in the east with the frontal
boundary. Mixing heights will remain fairly low Monday afternoon,
keeping more areas of poor mixing/ventilation in the forecast. The
reinforcing frontal surge Monday night will bring the more notable
cooling trend, and as it progresses farther west, it is projected to
spill through the gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain
for a gusty east wind event in locales favored for these scenarios.

High temperatures on Tuesday appear to be on track to run some 5 to
15 degrees cooler than Monday`s and below normal in all of the
eastern plains of NM. Light breezes would return Tuesday afternoon
with widespread poor smoke ventilation rates plaguing much of NM. An
abrupt warming trend is still expected Wednesday as the high
amplitude pattern begins to gradually show signs of buckling.
Wednesday afternoon breezes would increase in the plains in response
to the lee side surface trough. Ventilation rates will still be low
outside of these eastern areas.

The upper level pattern does indeed look to buckle by Thursday and
Friday as a bitterly cold arctic airmass spills southward. Forecast
models have been leaning colder with this frontal intrusion over the
past few runs, and while member-to-member continuity isn`t spot on,
there is increasing confidence of a dramatic cool down for NM with a
taste of wintry precipitation, namely for the north central to
northeastern zones of NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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