Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 162350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SFC CDFNT STRETCHING FROM KRTN THRU KTCC TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
AND WWD WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT TO EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND TO KROW VCNTY BY 17/12Z. LCL MAINLY MVFR CIGS OBSCG
HIGHER TERRAIN TO DVLP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPR TROF TO SWEEP
FROM NW TO SE OVR NM TRIGGERING SCT -SHRASN FROM THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ACROSS RATON RIDGE AND TO THE OK BORDER AS
WELL AS SE TO THE KCVS AREA BETWEEN 17/01Z AND 17/18Z. LCL MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 25 OVER RATON
PASS...WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE WILL PROBABLY
ALSO RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. AFTER THIS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...A WARMER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NE NM
TONIGHT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH TO 10K FT
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND MODELS ARE SQUEEZING
OUT A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF QPF RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH MAINLY IN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP
NEAR 8K FT BY 9 PM THEN DOWN TO AROUND 6K FT TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE CO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE SHOULD ALSO RECEIVE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THIS IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN TEMPERATURES REACHED THE
60S IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY AND THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHEN THE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES LINE UP FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONVERT OUR
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
SANGRES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL THROW IN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN
COLFAX COUNTY.

ALSO TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH FROM HARDING COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES...WHERE BLOWING DUST
SHOULD ALSO DROP THE VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. SHOULD ALSO FEEL
SIMILAR GUSTS BRIEFLY IN NE CHAVES COUNTY AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
UNION COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO
WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THIS
MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...COUPLED WITH SOME BREEZES AND HAINES
6 VALUES REST OF TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEN GO ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH THE WETTER PORTION OF THE EVENT
OCCURRING SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS WITH LIGHTNING ON SUNDAY.
STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY. POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT WIND/LOW RH/UNSTABLE EVENT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH LOWERING BASES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A PACIFIC
WAVE ACCOMPANIES THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE WETTING MOISTURE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A RIBBON OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE LOWEST
RECOVERIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109 AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER
TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME UP AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. THE STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. VENTILATION
RATES WILL CERTAINLY LOWER BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT.

WEATHER CHANGE WILL START UP ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PACIFIC WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
MOISTURE TO FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF. STORMS WILL START OUT
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH SOME DOWNDRAFT WIND POTENTIAL LASTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO MOISTURE WILL TRY TO POOL UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. STORMS THAT FIRE UP THERE COULD VERY WELL PUT DOWN SOME
WETTING RAIN. OTHER AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY. RESIDUAL AFFECTS FROM THE WAVE PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH SEASONABLE TO
UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON MONDAY. PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THERE. DRYING AND WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE
ON MONDAY THOUGHT. DUE TO THE RIDGING...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. VENTILATION DUE TO THE HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS LOOKS
TO BE ADEQUATE MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A MULTIDAY WIND EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. PERHAPS LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS IN TERMS
OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH GETS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE DEEP. ECMWF IS
DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD FALL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THIS
RESULT...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF INCREASED WIND.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ531-532-534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$







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