Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202215
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER NEW
MEXICO...BUT OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT...AND A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ENDS OF
THE STATE. STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN WORK INTO THE
STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS
INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH STRONGER
GUSTS BEING OBSERVED OVER A LARGER AREA ON MONDAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY...WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF CIRRUS CONTINUE TO STREAM EASTWARD INTO NM AS THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS FARTHER FROM THE STATE. THIS WOULD
SEEMINGLY PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT...BUT LAST NIGHT`S FORMATION CERTAINLY DIDN`T ABIDE BY
THIS PREMISE. THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE
SATURATED WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AROUND KGUP
AND EVEN AT KTCC DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES. AM NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...BUT AFTER THIS MORNING`S
SERVING OF HUMBLE PIE...HAVE FORECASTED ON THE CAUTIOUS SIDE.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALREADY SHIFTING EAST OF NM...THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHWEST GOING INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. STRONGER RIDGE TOP BREEZES SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS WITH PERHAPS A
FEW STRAY OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN
PEAKS. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO GUSTY CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE...NAMELY BETWEEN THE CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA
CORRIDOR. HAVE OPTED NOT TO DO A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO BRIEF AND
FAIRLY LOCALIZED PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST WINDS.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PERIODIC OVER THE NORTHERN
PEAKS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD
AND EXPANDING AS BETTER DYNAMICS AND EVEN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT NOSE
INTO NM. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THE SOUTHWARD
DIRECTION...STAYING MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW LOOK POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN PEAKS WHILE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OBSERVE RAIN AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR PLUNGES IN MONDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER BIG
CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE WINDS...WHICH STILL LOOK MUCH STRONGER
THAN SUNDAY WITH H7 WINDS REACHING 50 TO 65 KT OVER MANY CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
GRADIENT DOES NOT APPEAR AS STOUT AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...BUT
SOME ADVISORY IF NOT HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS MAY BE MET LATE
MONDAY...CONTINUING IN THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE BACK DOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT SPILLS IN.

PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BECOME FORCED BY LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
THERE COULD ALSO BE A WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO AID DEVELOPMENT. HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR A FARTHER WESTWARD DIVE OF THE POLAR JET...AND CONSEQUENTLY A
BETTER COLD CORE INVASION ALOFT. AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
MORNING...TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE
BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES. HAVE LEFT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT THESE MAY ACTUALLY
DISSIPATE QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED.

DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THE FLOW WILL STILL RETAIN A STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE FLOW WILL THEN BACK MORE WESTERLY BY
THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE TROUGH/LOW. FORECAST MODELS
STILL ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE FINER DETAILS...BUT
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO TREND SLIGHTLY DEEPER...WETTER...AND
COOLER. FORECAST POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE...BUT SLIGHT
CHANCES WERE LEFT IN TO ACCOUNT FOR GREAT UNCERTAINTY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY RIDGETOP WINDS...AND SOME
PRECIPITATION. CRITICAL WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WIDE SWINGS IN
VENTILATION ARE.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
ONLY A WEAK LEE TROUGH IN PLACE EASTERN PLAIN. MIN RH VALUES HAVE
DIPPED BELOW 20 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR NORTH OF
LAS VEGAS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

A STRONG JET AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF ALASKA IS
STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA. BY SUNDAY...THE JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT AND LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHEN OVER NEW MEXICO. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RH VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...EVEN AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME SPOTTY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. VENTILATION REMAINS
POOR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS BUT A SWATH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS.

BY MONDAY...A JET CORE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW REACHES NEW MEXICO
AS GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTS ALL ZONES...BUT MAGNITUDES ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST ZONES
AND RH REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
STATE LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE AREA EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS. VENTILATION
WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES COOL 10 TO 20 DEGREES.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ON WEDNESDAY...MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER AND
WINDS DECREASE...THUS VENTILATION WILL BE POOR MOST ZONES EXCEPT FOR
SOME FAIR TO POSSIBLY GOOD VALUES OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THEN CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY ALL ZONES SUPPORTING GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
SNOW.


05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOCAL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS
MORNING AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 20Z NEAR BUT NOT CURRENTLY
IMPACTING FKMN...KGUP AND KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH AROUND 06Z AS A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS FROM THE EAST...POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KCVS BUT LESS SURE ABOUT KTCC WHERE CURRENT TAF CARRIES
TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. CANT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KGUP
BUT LESS CONFIDENT AT KFMN. SPOTTY SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
PERIOD THUS EXPECT GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN...AND EXPANDING IN AREA TO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  26  47  32  49 /   0   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  15  41  22  42 /   5   5  20  40
CUBA............................  17  43  24  44 /   5   5  10  40
GALLUP..........................  22  47  28  50 /   0   5   5  10
EL MORRO........................  21  43  25  46 /   0   5   5  20
GRANTS..........................  19  47  27  51 /   0   0   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  26  44  29  49 /   0   0   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  29  59  33  62 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  12  41  19  39 /  10  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  41  29  44 /   0   5  10  20
PECOS...........................  25  42  31  44 /   0   5   5  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  38  21  39 /   5  10  20  50
RED RIVER.......................  15  35  23  33 /  10  20  20  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  16  39  22  38 /   5  20  20  50
TAOS............................  16  41  25  42 /   0   5  10  40
MORA............................  23  46  31  44 /   0   5  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  24  45  26  48 /   0   5   5  20
SANTA FE........................  27  40  31  48 /   0   0   5  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  45  28  51 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  46  31  53 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  33  56 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  22  51  28  58 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  51  29  57 /   0   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  51  28  59 /   0   0   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  30  49  33  54 /   0   5   5  20
SOCORRO.........................  27  57  32  61 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  23  45  32  50 /   0   0   5  20
TIJERAS.........................  28  47  32  52 /   0   0   5  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  21  46  30  55 /   0   0   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  45  31  47 /   0   0   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  27  47  33  52 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  27  52  32  56 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  25  51  36  56 /   0   0   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  50  29  51 /   0   5  10  40
RATON...........................  19  54  28  52 /   0   5  10  30
SPRINGER........................  22  55  30  52 /   0   0   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  24  53  34  52 /   0   0   5  20
CLAYTON.........................  27  58  37  49 /   0   5   5  40
ROY.............................  25  56  33  53 /   0   5   0  20
CONCHAS.........................  28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA ROSA......................  31  58  38  59 /   0   0   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  61  37  61 /   0   0   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  28  60  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  28  61  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  61  37  63 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  28  65  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  60  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  58  39  60 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52




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