Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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188
FXUS65 KABQ 210554 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS...HAVE OVERSPREAD NEARLY
ALL AREAS FROM EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN ON EAST TO BEYOND
THE TX LINE. THIS INCLUDES TCC...LVS AND ROW. MAINLY IFR TO LOW
END MVFR CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST AND NW THROUGH GAP
BETWEEN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE SANDIAS INTO THE SAF AND LOS
ALAMOS AREAS STARTING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. MT OBSCURATIONS TO BE
THE RULE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO SOME OF THE JEMEZ
MT PEAKS PRETTY MUCH FROM TIME OF THIS PRODUCT ISSUANCE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY THU. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WESTERN AND MOST CENTRAL AREAS. SOME SPOTTY -RA...DZ AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AFTER 009Z
OR 10Z. THE TSRA SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST CENTRAL AND SE PORTIONS OF
FCST AREA. LVS...TCC AND ROW WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST BUT WILL
JUST SHOW -RA OR VCSH FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE THUNDER AS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED AS OF
ISSUANCE TIME. ABQ WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GAP OR CANYON WINDS
INTO AT LEAST MID MORN THU AND AWW IS IN EFFECT THROUGH APPROX
14Z. CIGS TO RISE SOMEWHAT TO MAINLY MVFR RANGE OR HIGHER BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTN THU...THEN SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
THROUGH THE DAY THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE CONTINUES. ANOTHER PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DRAW UP DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM CORONA NORTH TO
CLINES CORNERS AND LAS VEGAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS SLOW
TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE ELY LOW LEVEL FROM EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN HANGING TOUGH WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO FALL OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK
WITH INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
PARENT CLOSED LOW AND OVER NORTHWESTERN NM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD THE VERY CONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN GFS. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT/OMEGA INCREASES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
AND MORESO LATE TONIGHT AND COMBINES WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO GET
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MODELS ALSO INDICATING AREAS OF UPSLOPE DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EWD. WITH THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ELY FLOW KEEPING THE EASTERN
PLAINS COOL AND STABLE...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FROM HE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE ERN PLAINS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THURSDAY EVENING AS A 100KT JET NOSES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY
EVENING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE STATE...TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAIN PORTION OF THE
LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD THROUGH ARIZONA AND SFC PRESSURES DROPPING
OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM. THIS SETS THE SAGE FOR A GULF MOISTURE
SURGE WWD INTO ERN NM WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WEST AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING AS FAR WEST AS THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY EVENING. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA KEEPS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW OPENS UP
INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH WRN NM SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS. SWLY BREEZES LIKELY
TO BE THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF AT ODDS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE DRYLINE SURGES
BACK WWD SATURDAY EVENING. TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SO KEPT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR ERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES
EWD THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. GFS BRINGS A
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM TROUGH INTO SRN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO
TOMORROW. ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND KEEPS THINGS
DRY FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ZCZC ABQWRKAVN 202102
TTAA00 KABQ DDHHMM

ZCZC ABQWRKAVN 202050
TTAA00 KABQ DDHHMM

FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...EAST. ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH/EAST WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE WEST COAST. HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PLUNGE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN GAPS AND SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
POINTS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT OCCURRED A COUPLE DAYS AGO. POOR TO MODERATE
RECOVERIES WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. INITIALLY CENTRAL
AREAS WILL SEE THE BEST SHOT AT WETTING SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AREAS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE DRIER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
NORTH CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD DO REALLY WELL IN TERMS OF WETTING RAIN.
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND COMBINE
WITH LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS DUE TO THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT. HAINES VALUES SHOULD BE A 5/6 BUT HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST. FUEL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
LESS THAN IDEAL FOR HARD TO CONTROL FIRES. DURATION AND COVERAGE
THUR AFTERNOON ALSO LOOKS TO BE SPOTTY. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN TIER...SIMILAR TO THIS PAST TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
CENTERS ITSELF MORE OVER THE AREA. THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL HAVE ALSO
MOVED CLOSER TO THE STATE WITH THE LOW CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
STRONGER SW WIND FLOW WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
AND SHOULD CREATE MORE AREAS OF STRONG WIND/LOW RH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ZONES 105/109 AND 106 WILL SEE THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF ALTHOUGH HAINES VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 5/6. DUE TO
FUEL CONSIDERATIONS WITH UNUSUALLY LOW ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL OPT OUT OF ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. GREENUP HAS ALSO OCCURRED ALTHOUGH MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS.

THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE DRY LINE/WETTING RAIN
EVENT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT SO WILL MONITOR THAT. THIS DRYLINE SHOULD
PUSH BACK OUT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST AREA THUS ALLOWING THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SOME POP UP SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AND FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WETTING RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE BUT MORE LOCALIZED.
TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK
TO BE PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZIER ON SATURDAY COMPARED
TO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG COMPARED TO THU/FRI.

A DRIER AND WARMER BROAD SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A
FAIR BIT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT BEST. SUSPECT THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE BETTER SUITED THAN THE
ECMWF BASED ON THE PAST FEW WEEKS BUT WILL MONITOR THE TREND.
SUSPECT THE DRYLINE WILL TRY TO SLOSH BACK DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE EAST WHILE LOWER HUMIDITY WOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
WEST. WIND SPEEDS DONT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG ALTHOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS MODEL INDICATES ANOTHER
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH MIDWEEK WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BROADER WESTERLY FLOW AND LESS OF A MOISTURE INTRUSION. WE SHALL
SEE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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