Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 241753 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1153 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016
18Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are already igniting over the
high terrain this afternoon. The central mountain chain of New
Mexico and areas just east will be a focus for development, as
will the northeast highlands/plains as a weak frontal boundary
sags toward the area. A secondary focal point will develop over
the southwestern to west central mountains this afternoon. All
storms will be capable of producing gusty downburst winds and
brief ceiling/visibility reductions due to rain and small hail.
The aforementioned boundary will sag farther south and west into
New Mexico this evening with storms continuing along and near it.
Gusty east/southeast winds will spill into central areas of the
state as the front slides in.
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016...
Active weather pattern through the forecast period. High pressure
will be over NM today through Monday before it begins to transition
toward the Great Basin through the rest of the week. The high may
then move east next weekend back over NM. A traditional monsoon
pattern could set up after that.
High pressure is centered over NM this morning. A very weak MCV is
located near Gallup. The moisture plume remains mostly over AZ but
extends into northwest NM. A large complex of storms continues to
move northwest over northern Sonora. A back door cold front will
enter the northeast today and drop south and west tonight, with
east canyon winds likely into the RGV.
Saturday brought a a little increase in convection and that trend
should continue today and tonight with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the western and northern mountains
into the northeast, and isolated activity elsewhere except the far
southeast and maybe far northwest. Will need to keep an eye on the
cluster of storms over Sonora although models move it to the west
northwest with it`s moisture not impacting our forecast area. Cell
movement today is going to be slow and erratic due to the high
over the state. This could lead to some minor flooding and
isolated flash flooding. Highs will generally be a little lower
than Saturday, especially in the northeast. A few record highs
will still be challenged though.
Monday and Tuesday will be active with plenty of moisture and
instability available. precipitable water values will be an inch
or higher in all but the northwest. Albuquerque`s value on Monday
could be around 1.25 inches. The upper high will begin to drift to
the west northwest Tuesday. Storms will again be moving slowly
which will add to the threat of flash flooding. Highs will finally
lower some, but be near to above normal.
Wednesday through Friday will likely see a decrease in storm
coverage, mainly over the north. This is due to the clockwise
circulation around the Great Basin high, bringing drier air into
the state from north to south. High will creep back up above
Another back door front is advertised to reach eastern NM Friday
night into Saturday, while the upper high builds back toward NM
next weekend. An upper low could impact southern and western NM
by late next weekend into the following week, while the upper high
recenters itself east of the state. This would bring about the
traditional monsoon burst. Stay tuned. CHJ
Though fairly loosely organized the center of the mid-level high
pressure system is now forecast to be over NM today and Monday.
Monsoon moisture trapped under the ridge will be enhanced by a shot
of low level moisture with a back door cool front that will work its
way southwestward through our eastern plains, leading to a
pronounced uptick in the coverage of wetting showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm outflow
boundaries will probably push some of this low level moisture
westward through the central valley tonight. The stage will then be
set for another day of scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. With PWATs around 1 inch, and
slow/squirrely storm motions under the high, some thunderstorms will
be capable of locally heavy rain with a risk of burn scar flash
flooding both days. Despite increasing cloud cover and
precipitation, the proximity of the high should result in a few near
record high temperatures this afternoon; however, this looks less
likely Monday after 2 days of cooling. Readings will still be a few
to 7 degrees above normal on Monday. Haines indices around 4 or 5
today will trend downward by Monday as moisture continues to improve.
Tuesday, an upper trough exiting the northern and central Rockies
will shift the center of the subtropical ridge northwestward over
the Great Basin. Meanwhile, low level moisture will continue to
improve over NM with a persistent return flow out of the southeast.
The upper trough will clip NE NM as it exits the Rockies into the
Great Plains helping to focus and invigorate showers and
thunderstorms over the forecast area. PWATs should peak around 1 to
over 1.25 inches on Tuesday causing the threat for locally heavy
rain to peak. Models depict showers and storms persisting through
much of Tuesday night, especially across the plains where the upper
trough will be crossing. Temperatures will continue to trend
downward Tuesday, and even through Wednesday across central and
The subtropical high is progged to wobble around southern NV through
the end of the week. Nonetheless, some fairly rich monsoon moisture
will continue to stream over NM. This pattern should allow another
moist back door cold front into the state from the northeast
Thursday or Thursday night. Daily rounds of scattered to isolated,
to locally numerous, showers and thunderstorms with high
temperatures near to around 6 degrees above normal.