Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 200949
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED IN 00Z TAF SET. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CONT DVD IS TRYING HARD AS EVIDENCED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS PRECIP COMES WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND LATEST GUIDANCE DID SHOW
A BETTER SHOT AT LEAST. OBS NEAR WINDOW ROCK AND GALLUP ALSO HAVE
BKN CIGS NEAR 028 SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT KGUP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KSAF HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS MAIN TROUGH
PASSAGE SLIDES THRU IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP INTO
MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STEERING FLOW
WILL FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  84  55  87  56 /  10  10  10  30
DULCE...........................  79  47  81  51 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  79  51  81  52 /  20  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  78  49  79  52 /  20  20  20  30
EL MORRO........................  75  50  76  49 /  20  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  78  51  78  51 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  78  49  78  50 /  20  20  20  30
GLENWOOD........................  84  56  85  55 /  10  10  20  30
CHAMA...........................  76  43  77  44 /  30  20  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  53  82  56 /  20  20  20  20
PECOS...........................  77  52  79  53 /  30  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  45  79  48 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  43  71  41 /  40  20  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  46  75  43 /  40  20  20  30
TAOS............................  80  46  82  50 /  30  20  20  20
MORA............................  77  51  78  51 /  30  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  51  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  79  52  83  54 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  54  86  54 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  60  85  61 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  64  88  63 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  60  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  87  61  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  88  62 /  10  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  85  62  86  62 /  10  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  88  64  88  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  82  56  82  59 /  30  20  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  83  58  84  60 /  20  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  52  83  54 /  20  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  80  56  81  55 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  57  83  56 /  30  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  62  85  61 /  30  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  76  58  76  58 /  50  20  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  83  54  84  53 /  40  20  20  20
RATON...........................  86  53  87  52 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  85  51  85  52 /  30  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  51  83  55 /  30  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  93  63  91  63 /  30  20  20  20
ROY.............................  90  59  87  57 /  30  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  92  62  92  65 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  93  63 /  20  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  65  95  66 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  92  63  91  64 /  30  30  20  30
PORTALES........................  93  64  92  65 /  30  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  88  63  85  61 /  40  30  30  20
ELK.............................  79  62  80  60 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$















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